Canadian by-elections, 2014

[emcee0]

While I didn't expect a liberal win the CPC getting 48% isn't a good sign for them.

In an election that got less than 25% voter turnout.. And don't forget this is a mostly blue riding.

[RogueBeaver]

Trudeau's spin is exactly like this.

Hudak claims victory, saying ON wants change but noting the meaningless stat that PCs led the combined PV 42/30/24 (H/T Coyne on the #).

[Boston Bread]

Hopefully we get an early by-election in Peterborough as that is a seat the liberals should be expected to win (if they want to form government) instead of these fool's gold seats.

[emcee0]

Like it or not, LPC went from 14% to 42% in Whitby Oshawa ,and from 3% to 18% and 2nd place in Yellowhead. WO was somewhat fools gold but I doubt this has any impact for the 2015 election.

[Boston Bread]

I heard McAuliffe of the NDP was being primed to run in Oshawa after this run. Is she still planning to after the weak performance? It wasn't her fault for the strategic stampede at least.

[MaxQue]

Counting finished in Whitby-Oshawa.

Turnout: 31.76%

Pat Perkins (Conservative): 17033 votes (49.2%) (-9.2)
Celina Caesar-Chavannes (Liberal): 14082 votes (40.7%) (+26.6)
Trish McAuliffe (NDP): 2800 votes (8.1%) (-14.2)
Craig Cameron (Green): 496 votes (1.4%) (-3.5)
John "The Engineer" Turmel (Independent): 107 votes (0.3%)
Josh Borenstein (Independent): 87 votes (0.3%)

[MaxQue]

And Yellowhead

Turnout: 16.06%

Jim Eglinski (Conservative): 7884 votes (62.6%) (-14.4)
Ryan Heinz Maguhn (Liberal): 2518 votes (20.0%) (+17.1)
Eric Rosendahl (NDP): 1203 votes (9.5%) (-3.6)
Dean Williams (Independent): 622 votes (4.9%)
Cory Lystang (Libertarian): 374 votes (3.0%)

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow @ the turnout in Yellowhead. Almost as bad as the 15.4% in the Fort McMurray-Athabasca by-election (which was held the day before Canada Day in a riding that had the worst turnout in 2011). I suppose the closeness of the Fort McMurray race kept it from going even lower.

I think a lot of Conservatives in Alberta are upset with the Harper government and are staying home in droves with these by-elections. The Macleod by-election had low turnout too at 20%. 

[DC Al Fine]

I think a lot of Conservatives in Alberta are upset with the Harper government and are staying home in droves with these by-elections. The Macleod by-election had low turnout too at 20%. 

Maybe out east, but in Alberta I'd attribute to not giving a f[inks]. Hell, I'd seriously debate getting off my butt to vote in a rural Alberta by-election

[MaxQue]

I think a lot of Conservatives in Alberta are upset with the Harper government and are staying home in droves with these by-elections. The Macleod by-election had low turnout too at 20%. 

Maybe out east, but in Alberta I'd attribute to not giving a f[inks]. Hell, I'd seriously debate getting off my butt to vote in a rural Alberta by-election
[/quote

There is some discontent with Harper in rural Alberta. Some think he isn't right-wing enough or not doing doing enough against abortions/homosexuals, but your point probably explain a larger share of abstension.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Could it be the Alberta PC's unpopularity with conservatives starting to tear at the federal brand?

What is the relationship between Wildrose/the PC's and the federal Tories anyway?

[RogueBeaver]

Could it be the Alberta PC's unpopularity with conservatives starting to tear at the federal brand?

What is the relationship between Wildrose/the PC's and the federal Tories anyway?

Most of our Alberta caucus supports Wildrose, who are ideologically aligned with Blue Tories. Prentice used to be a senior Harper minister, so neutrality is the word. Plus as a general rule PMs don't get involved in provincial votes. Last time Harper did was when he appeared at a barbecue for Tim Hudak and Rob Ford 3 years ago.

[lilTommy]

Two more NFLD by-elections are coming up November 25th

Humber East
Trinity - Bay de Verde

http://www.elections.gov.nl.ca/elections/

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/candidates-announced-for-upcoming-provincial-byelections-1.2836602

Humber East candidates in by-election (2011 result)
Stelman Flynn Liberals (businessman) (8%)
Martin Ware NDP (retired English Prof) (13%)
Lary Wells PC (EA to former premier Tom Marshall) (78%)

Trinity - Bay de Verde
Steve Crocker - Liberal (Leader's EA) (23%)
Tolson Rendell - NDP (Town Councillor) (14%) - Looks like the NDP are actually going to try here by running the longest serving town Councillor http://nlndp.ca/town-councilor-tolson-rendell-is-ndp-candidate-in-trinity-bay-de-verde-2/
Ronald Johnson PC (father of the outgoing MHA) (61%)

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting that the NDP is "trying" in a riding they finished 3rd in. Fool's gold for sure.

The Liberals will win both ridings, of course. There's been so many by-elections in Newfoundland recently, and the Liberals have won all of them (most of them gains as well). Plus, they've had a lot of floor crossings. If the last election was anything resembling a close one, the Tories would have a minority by now.

The big question is, which ridings will the Liberals not win in the general? I'm guessing Lorraine Michaels is safe, and Paul Davis will probably win his seat.

[RogueBeaver]

Ontario: Sudbury NDP MPP Joe Cimino resigns for family/health reasons. What are the ON deadlines?

[Boston Bread]

Sudbury by-election must be called in 6 months according to Mike Crawley.
https://twitter.com/CBCQueensPark/status/535502535818481664

Will his early leave be treated as a negative?

[lilTommy]

Sudbury by-election must be called in 6 months according to Mike Crawley.
https://twitter.com/CBCQueensPark/status/535502535818481664

Will his early leave be treated as a negative?

Not quit as bad as the Saint John East MLA resigning within what days, it took him 5 Months or so to realize that he can't handle the impact of the amount of time he will be away from home. Seems like its a health and wellness and family sanity reason... I haven't heard of any "backroom" or hidden not-public reasons as of yet.
 
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/sudbury/ndp-mpp-joe-cimino-resigns-seat-cites-family-health-issues-1.2843650

[Hatman 🍁]

This will be a big test Horwath. If we lose Sudbury, then perhaps she might consider resigning.

The whole Saint John East fiasco shows us that voters are willing to punish the party of the candidate who quit too early.

[Hatman 🍁]

Profiles on today's by-elections in Newfoundland: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/11/provincial-by-elections-today-in.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Liberals leading in both by-elections so far. Race to watch will be Humber East IMO.

[Hatman 🍁]

Surprise, surprise. Liberals win both by-elections with massive swings:

Trinity-Bay de Verde:

Lib: 3074 (65.5, +41.6)
PC: 1363 (29.1, -32.9)
NDP: 254 (5.4, -8.7)

2 party swing: 37.2% (PC to Lib)


Humber East

Lib: 2263 (56.1, +47.7)
PC: 1454 (36.1, -42.2)
NDP: 315 (7.8, -5.5)

2 party swing: 44.9 (PC to Lib)

[MaxQue]

Final results:

Trinity-Bay de Verde
Steve Crocker (Liberal) 3074 votes (65.53%) (+41.60)
Ronald Johnson (Progressive Conservative) 1363 votes (29.06%) (-32.85)
Tolson Rendell (NDP) 254 votes (5.41%) (-8.75)

Humber East
Stelman Flynn (Liberal) 2263 votes (56.13%) (+47.66)
Lary Wells (Progressive Conservative) 1454 votes (36.06%) (-42.19)
Martin Ware (NDP) 315 votes (7.81%) (-5.47)

[RogueBeaver]

They're gonna get Campbelled.

[Hatman 🍁]

Thanks for repeating me, MaxQue, you must have me on ignore

2-party PC to Lib swings in recent by-elections in Newfyland:

Carbonear-Harbour Grace (Nov 2013): 34.9%
Virginia Waters (Apr 2014): 25.7%
St. George's-Stephenville East (Aug 2014): 25.2%
Conception Bay South (Sept 2014): 32.1%
Trinity-Bay de Verde (Tonight): 37.2%
Humber East: (Tonight) 44.9%

Looks like it's getting worse for the Tories.

[Hatman 🍁]

Humber East had the highest PC vote in the last election, so if that swing happened across the province, the Tories would be wiped out. It wouldn't be a Campbelling, it would be a McKennaning.