Canadian by-elections, 2014

[Hatman 🍁]

Well yes, there are the old tribal voting patterns of Catholics voting Liberal and Protestants voting Tory (opposite in Newfoundland). But I think the Liberals were usually always more socially progressive than the conservatives, right?

"Social issues" were simply a different set of issue cleavages before the 1960s. LGBT issues or abortion were simply not issues, versus temperance or British-imperialism which cut 'progress' in different ways

I am well aware that gay rights were not an issue before the 1960s...

It is true that temperance was considered a "progressive issue" at the time, and the Liberals opposed it, but looking at the issue from today's point of view, temperance was very anti progressive.

Not sure if supporting British imperialism was ever a "progressive" view. Perhaps maybe in contrast with wanting to focus foreign policy with the US.

[Citizen Hats]

Well yes, there are the old tribal voting patterns of Catholics voting Liberal and Protestants voting Tory (opposite in Newfoundland). But I think the Liberals were usually always more socially progressive than the conservatives, right?

"Social issues" were simply a different set of issue cleavages before the 1960s. LGBT issues or abortion were simply not issues, versus temperance or British-imperialism which cut 'progress' in different ways

I am well aware that gay rights were not an issue before the 1960s...

It is true that temperance was considered a "progressive issue" at the time, and the Liberals opposed it, but looking at the issue from today's point of view, temperance was very anti progressive.

Not sure if supporting British imperialism was ever a "progressive" view. Perhaps maybe in contrast with wanting to focus foreign policy with the US.

I wasn't saying that those were or weren't progressive positions, merely that they were issues.

[MaxQue]

On imperialism, wasn't Conservatives for and Liberals against?

[Citizen Hats]

On imperialism, wasn't Conservatives for and Liberals against?

Broadly speaking

[RogueBeaver]

Back on topic, Innes may sue the Grits.

[Hatman 🍁]

By-election today in Virginia Waters, NL

Profile: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/04/virginia-waters-newfoundland-by.html

[Hatman 🍁]

1 poll reporting

PC: 11
NDP: 10
Lib: 9

[Hatman 🍁]

VOCM says:  Lib: 203, PC: 169, NDP: 141  (8 polls reporting).

[Hatman 🍁]

According to VOCM: Lib: 1066, PC: 1047, NDP: 627

[Hatman 🍁]

With only "a couple polls to go":  Lib: 1305, PC: 1264, NDP: 720

[Hatman 🍁]

Twitter says: Lib: 1885  PC: 1839 NDP: 971 with one poll to go.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's over, the Liberals win by 38 votes:

Lib 1930; PC: 1892; NDP: 1026

[RogueBeaver]

Gritnami incoming at the GE.

[trebor204]

Sad news,
 Former finance minister Jim Flaherty has died

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow.

Cabinet ministers get state funerals right? But I think they have to be current cabinet ministers. (Just missed the honour by a month... how eerie is that?)

Nonetheless, very sad news.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder if Flaherty's wife will run?

[DL]

I wonder if Flaherty's wife will run?

It must be shock to suddenly lose a spouse like this - I wonder more whether she might not run federally OR provincially (given that if there is an Ontario election this spring she'd have to run for re-election)

[RogueBeaver]

I wonder if Flaherty's wife will run?

Going from deputy leader to backbencher? Doubtful.

[lilTommy]

I wonder if Flaherty's wife will run?

I could see her take another run at PC party leader after the next election, Hudak's in all likelihood gone.
But tough call... run federally only to possibly lose (gov't) in 2015; stay and possibly lose (next provincial) and remain in opposition but run for leader?

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder if Flaherty's wife will run?

It must be shock to suddenly lose a spouse like this - I wonder more whether she might not run federally OR provincially (given that if there is an Ontario election this spring she'd have to run for re-election)

It wouldn't be the first time a wife ran to fill her husband's seat after he dies.

[trebor204]

It wouldn't be the first time a wife ran to fill her husband's seat after he dies.

Chuck Cadman died while he was in office in 2005. His wife Dona,  endored NDP Penny Priddy in the 2006 election.  However she ran (and won) for the Conservatives in 2008 election, but lost her seat in 2011 election.

[MaxQue]

I wonder if Flaherty's wife will run?

It must be shock to suddenly lose a spouse like this - I wonder more whether she might not run federally OR provincially (given that if there is an Ontario election this spring she'd have to run for re-election)

It wouldn't be the first time a wife ran to fill her husband's seat after he dies.

His wife is alreayd the MPP for Whitby-Oshawa and deputy PC leader (and a sure minister if Hudak win). I don't see why she would do that.

[RogueBeaver]

Adam Vaughan will seek the Grit nomination in Trinity-Spadina.

[Citizen Hats]

Adam Vaughan will seek the Grit nomination in Trinity-Spadina.

A fair number of Liberals I know are decidedly not fans

[Hatman 🍁]

Should the NDP be happy about Vaughan's candidacy?