Canadian by-elections, 2014

[DL]

Good thing they'll probably never run for MPP or MP then.

But seriously...a lot of this "personality" stuff doesn't matter much unless we're dealing with personality cults like Rob Ford where being a thug is his "politics."

You asked why the NDP might not have gone out of its way to beg Vaughan to run for them - I'm saying part of the reason is that there is a lot of friction between him and NDP councillors at city and he was always very personally hostile towards Jack Layton and Olivia Chow...so he was viewed as a vote and nothing more.

This "personality stuff" may not matter much to voters who are seldom exposed personally to politicians' temper tantrums etc...but it does matter to parties themselves (e.g. caucuses and activists) who also consider whether - all things being equal - they want someone in their midst who is not a team player and is very personally unpleasant.

[King of Kensington]

Didn't Cheri DiNovo get drunk one night and fire her staff?

OK...moving on.  What impact will Christine Innes and Tony Ianno have?  My guess is they'll just be a minor nuisance at most.  Maybe she'll run as an independent and get 1 or 2% of the vote.  Maybe Ianno's people will knock a few Vaughan signs down and steal some literature.  Ianno's old base has evaporated and they are kind of a joke.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, it's too bad then if Vaughan wins. It's really bad optics for the NDP to lose the riding, which has historically been one of their better ridings. If the NDP can't win in their traditional areas, then the media will have a field day.

[DL]

Well, it's too bad then if Vaughan wins. It's really bad optics for the NDP to lose the riding, which has historically been one of their better ridings. If the NDP can't win in their traditional areas, then the media will have a field day.

The NDP has been down that road before when they lost the even more supersafe traditional stronghold of Winnipeg North to the Liberal in 2010 under similar circumstances...the media had a field day for a few days and then 5 months later the NDP won 103 seats and the Liberals were reduced to 34.

In the meantime we are all ignoring the proverbial elephant in the room! I predict that Harper will call the two Alberta byelections very soon, but that he will delay calling the byelections in Trinity-Spadina, Scarborough-Agincourt and Whitby-Oshawa until well after the almost certain Ontario provincial election to take place in June...the outcome of that election is a total wild card and could have a profound impact on what happens in the byelections and I don't have time to list all the permutations.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, it's too bad then if Vaughan wins. It's really bad optics for the NDP to lose the riding, which has historically been one of their better ridings. If the NDP can't win in their traditional areas, then the media will have a field day.

The NDP has been down that road before when they lost the even more supersafe traditional stronghold of Winnipeg North to the Liberal in 2010 under similar circumstances...the media had a field day for a few days and then 5 months later the NDP won 103 seats and the Liberals were reduced to 34.

True, but none of those 103 seats is Winnipeg North. It always hurts to lose one of your traditional seats. This is shaping up to be Winnipeg North all over again.

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I agree with this, I think Harper will call the Alberta by-elections first, and hold off on the Ontario ones until maybe September. Who knows, by that point the Liberals may hold Trinity-Spadina in Queen's Park too

[DL]

Its possible - but its also possible that the bottom falls out of OLP support and the ONDP gains traction during the campaign - its also possible (if not likely) that we get another minority parliament in Ontario and that July and August get dominated by machinations between the OLP and NDP over possible coalitions/accords etc...and that could create interesting dynamic federally in Trinity-Spadina since the federal NDP has declared itself open to any form of cooperation with the Liberals (e.g. coalition, accord etc...) in order to defeat Harper - while the Liberals under Trudeau reject working with anyone and have stated that they have no interest in ditching Harper unless they can govern alone - in Trinity-Spadina the Liberal position is likely to be anathema - though in a byelection it may or may not be a vote determining issue!

[King of Kensington]

Well I don't buy that they didn't court Vaughan for such "principled" reasons...but I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.

The main factor I think will be Justin Trudeau.  Right now to most voters Mulcair is just some dude with a beard - Torontonians don't have much of an opinion about him one way or the other.  Vaughan's popularity and profile should be enough to run ahead of the brand - but if the public really turns sour on Trudeau, Vaughan could lose.  I don't think it'll have much to do with Cressy-mania or Mulcair-mania.

But right now it may be harder for Vaughan to get the Liberal nomination than to win the by-election. 

[Citizen Hats]

that could create interesting dynamic federally in Trinity-Spadina since the federal NDP has declared itself open to any form of cooperation with the Liberals (e.g. coalition, accord etc...) in order to defeat Harper - while the Liberals under Trudeau reject working with anyone and have stated that they have no inte

When have the Federal NDP said any such thing?

[DC Al Fine]

that could create interesting dynamic federally in Trinity-Spadina since the federal NDP has declared itself open to any form of cooperation with the Liberals (e.g. coalition, accord etc...) in order to defeat Harper - while the Liberals under Trudeau reject working with anyone and have stated that they have no inte

When have the Federal NDP said any such thing?

Yeah. I'm pretty sure they threw that out the window once they realised they could contend for the PM spot

[King of Kensington]

Both parties are pretty "flexible" on this question - though right now they both want to present themselves as the "only alternative to Harper."

[King of Kensington]

Here's the City TV news report on Dan Heap's upset by-election victory in 1981, featuring Colin Vaughan and Stephen Lewis:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R93Tjx-WY74

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's the City TV news report on Dan Heap's upset by-election victory in 1981, featuring Colin Vaughan and Stephen Lewis:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R93Tjx-WY74

Watched that this morning. Amazing how open the NDP was about using the 's' word (socialism) back then.

[Hatman 🍁]

Athabasca County Deputy Reeve David Yurdiga has won the Tory nomination in Fort McMurray-Athabasca. Expect Harper to announced at least the Alberta by-elections soon.

[RogueBeaver]

Ryan Davey is quitting the TrinSpa Grit race and isn't thrilled about it.

[Hatman 🍁]

Meh. Nominations races are a joke unfortunately.

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, leaders get their candidates if they want them. "Open nominations" was stupid to begin with. Especially with the Dithers psychodrama on appointments a decade ago.

[Citizen Hats]

". Further, the nomination rules for Trinity-Spadina were changed so that all candidates received the membership lists and forms prior to being green lit, which provided Adam Vaughan with critical information that all candidates had waited several weeks to receive. Regardless of the outcome, these circumstances have not been consistent with an open nomination process."

I'm really not sure what he means here. 

[Smid]

". Further, the nomination rules for Trinity-Spadina were changed so that all candidates received the membership lists and forms prior to being green lit, which provided Adam Vaughan with critical information that all candidates had waited several weeks to receive. Regardless of the outcome, these circumstances have not been consistent with an open nomination process."

I'm really not sure what he means here. 

I think he's saying that other candidates had to wait until they were approved before getting the membership lists, whereas Vaughan received them prior to being formally approved. I assume that it's the members who are voting in the preselection, so receiving a copy of the list is beneficial in doing the numbers.  I think he is saying that Vaughan received the list a few weeks faster than other candidates, and therefore an unfair advantage, and that this unfair advantage is not conducive to a fair and open preselection process.

To that, I'd say that if you don't have at least a rudimentary list from working the branches over the past few years, you probably don't deserve the nomination anyway. Seriously, go do your homework before sticking up your hand, and when you don't have the numbers, don't be a sore loser and say the system is rigged against you.

[RogueBeaver]

Vaughan has been nominated.

[Krago]

The official results have come out for the Thornhill and Niagara Falls by-elections.

Thornhill



Niagara Falls

[mileslunn]

Any guesses on the next federal by-elections?

Here are my takes

Macleod

Solid Conservative so I suspect an easy Conservative win here.  Interestingly enough John Barlow won is a moderate and comes from the provincial PCs rather than Wildrose Alliance.

Fort-McMurray-Athabasca

Probably Tory, but notorious for some of the worst turnouts in Canada as well as a highly transient population, an upset is at least plausible here.  If the Tories lose here, though I suspect there will be a lot more pressure on Harper to resign as leader.

Whitby-Oshawa

As a typical 905 belt, should lean Tory, but a Liberal win cannot be ruled out nonetheless if the Tories cannot win here, they are unlikely to win nationally so I also suspect a loss unless its by a very small margin would also hurt Harper's control over caucus too.

Scarborough-Agincourt

Fairly solidly Liberal although as much of a sleazebag as Jim Karygiannis was, he was quite popular in his riding and in fact its quite possible the Tories would have won this as well as the NDP would done much better had he not been the candidate.  Nonetheless considering the improvement of Liberal numbers nationally and decline of the Tories it should stay Liberal.

Trinity-Spadina

This is my riding and certainly the choice of Adam Vaughan helps the Liberals although the NDP could still win.  That being said I think Adam Vaughan was a bad choice overall as he is quite left wing and if he is given too high a profile it could hurt the Liberals in the 905 belt which is more Blue Liberal rather than Progressive Liberal territory and its the 905 belt, not downtown Toronto who will determine the next government.

[RogueBeaver]

Smid: what's hilarious is that Davey is the riding association president's husband.

[MaxQue]

Would the ruling on citizens living in foreign countries would apply to those by-elections (context: a Court ruled than removing the right of vote to citizens living in foreign coutries since more than 5 years was unconstitionnal. That would lead to one million of persons possibly added on rolls.)?

[Citizen Hats]

Would the ruling on citizens living in foreign countries would apply to those by-elections (context: a Court ruled than removing the right of vote to citizens living in foreign coutries since more than 5 years was unconstitionnal. That would lead to one million of persons possibly added on rolls.)?

I'm looking to sign up my expat parents ASAP. Three votes for me!

[mileslunn]

Would the ruling on citizens living in foreign countries would apply to those by-elections (context: a Court ruled than removing the right of vote to citizens living in foreign coutries since more than 5 years was unconstitionnal. That would lead to one million of persons possibly added on rolls.)?

I am guessing in this case they would go by the last riding one lived in when they left Canada.  My question is what about those who have never lived in Canada but got citizenship by being born to a Canadian born parent, what happens then?