Canadian by-elections, 2014

[Hatman 🍁]

Pretty sure CAQ will win. They're up in the polls.

Polls close at 8pm by the way.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yup, the CAQ is going to win this.

16/159 polls:

CAQ: 50%
PLQ: 35%
PQ: 7%
QS: 4%
PCQ.: 2%

[Hash]

Unsurprisingly, but still quite amusingly, the PQ is getting clobbered right now. Down from 16.6% in 2014, which was already a crap-poor result.

[Hatman 🍁]

Remember, the PQ's WORST EVER showing was 14% in 1970.

[Poirot]

After a third of polling stations CAQ still leads with 45% to PLQ 37%.

[Poirot]

the gap is increasing: 47% to 34.

[Hatman 🍁]

111/159

CAQ: 47%
PLQ: 33%
PQ: 8%
QS: 7%
PCQ: 2%
PVQ: 1%

[Poirot]

Turnout will be around 50% which seems good.

[Poirot]

The count seems to be over. Turnout 46.3%.

[MaxQue]

François Paradis (CAQ) 10110 votes (46.79%) (+4.30)
Janet Jones (PLQ) 7014 votes (32.46%) (-2.47)
Alexandre Bégin (PQ) 1788 votes (8.28%) (-8.33)
Yv Bonnier Viger (QS) 1654 votes (7.66%) (+1.51)
Adrien Pouliot (Conservative) 503 votes (2.33%) (+1.54)
Alex Tyrrell (Green) 238 votes (1.10%)
François Thériault (Option Nationale) 168 votes (0.78%) (+0.06)
Maxime Lapointe (Independent) 60 votes (0.28%)
Daniel Lachance (Parti unité nationale) 30 votes (0.14%) (-0.17)
Grégoire Bonneau-Fortier (Independentist Party) 27 votes (0.12%)
Guy Boivin (Autonomist Team) 13 votes (0.06%)

[Hatman 🍁]

My profile of Monday's Alberta by-elections: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/10/alberta-provincial-by-elections-monday.html

[Njall]

Interesting article from the Herald today; MRU Political Scientist Duane Bratt and pollster Janet Brown are doing a study to see the correlation between the number of lawn signs on private property and the actual results for each of the Calgary by-elections.  Their results for lawn sign numbers were published today: Prentice is far ahead in Foothills, while Dirks is leading a three-way race in Elbow and Taylor is ahead in West.

[Citizen Hats]

Interesting article from the Herald today; MRU Political Scientist Duane Bratt and pollster Janet Brown are doing a study to see the correlation between the number of lawn signs on private property and the actual results for each of the Calgary by-elections.  Their results for lawn sign numbers were published today: Prentice is far ahead in Foothills, while Dirks is leading a three-way race in Elbow and Taylor is ahead in West.

too bad lawn signs don't vote goddamnit

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow, the Alberta Party is really gunning for Elbow, aren't they? I was expecting the third party there to be the Liberals.

[Njall]

Wow, the Alberta Party is really gunning for Elbow, aren't they? I was expecting the third party there to be the Liberals.

Yeah, they're going all out in Elbow; they have signs everywhere, ads online, and everything.  They're also getting a lot of attention from the media, since they seem to be trying to make this by-election turn out to be a repeat of 2007, except with an Alberta Party victory.  Unfortunately for them, the Liberals found a pretty strong candidate in Susan Wright, and they're running a pretty active campaign here compared to the other ridings.

[Hatman 🍁]

Polls have closed in the 4 Alberta by-elections

[Njall]

WRP up by 4% over PCs in Calgary-West (presumably from advance votes)

[Hatman 🍁]

WRP up by 4% over PCs in Calgary-West (presumably from advance votes)

Yes it was: http://results.elections.ab.ca/27BE.htm

Alberta, the only province to tell us what polls are reporting. Should make the night a lot more fun.

[Njall]

Holy ****!  Prentice takes 91% of Calgary-Foothills advance poll votes.

EDIT: Hang on, that doesn't sound right...

[Njall]

Holy ****!  Prentice takes 91% of Calgary-Foothills advance poll votes.

EDIT: Hang on, that doesn't sound right...

Ok, Elections Alberta fixed it.  Prentice takes 65% of the advance vote, MacDonald takes 27%

[Njall]

Edmonton-Whitemud advance poll: PC 44%, NDP 22%, WRP 20%, LIB 12%
Calgary-Elbow advance poll: PC 35%, WRP 27%, AP 23%, LIB 12%, NDP 4%

[Njall]

PCs now trailing WRP by 11 votes in Calgary-West; Ellis has slowly been making up the WRP advance poll lead.

[Hatman 🍁]

PCs now ahead in Calgary-West. Looks like the WRP is having trouble winning in their key areas, specifically Signal Hill. I think the Tories will win it.

[Njall]

PCs now ahead in Calgary-West. Looks like the WRP is having trouble winning in their key areas, specifically Signal Hill. I think the Tories will win it.

That's certainly how it's been trending over the course of the night so far.  And Dirks' lead hasn't particularly faltered in Elbow.  The PCs just might take all four ridings

[Njall]

Interesting sidenote: The Alberta Party just took 2nd place in Calgary-Elbow