Canadian by-elections, 2014

[Hatman 🍁]

Terrible news for Wildrose to lose Calgary-West.

Great news for the Alberta Party. They have proved they are still relevant. I'm not sure where their natural base is though?

Also, it looks like the NDP will finish 2nd in Whitemud. This is fabulous news. Hopefully this means the party can win a handful of seats in the city.

[Njall]

Calgary-West 74/74 polls reporting:
Mike Ellis (PC): 44.44% (-5.51)
Sheila Taylor (WRP): 41.55% (+4.22)
David Khan (LIB): 8.50% (+1.04)
Brian Malkinson (NDP): 3.08% (+0.07)
Troy Millington (AP): 2.43% (+1.46)

[Njall]

Calgary-Foothills 79/79 polls reporting:
Jim Prentice (PC): 58.26% (+4.72)
Kathy MacDonald (WRP): 29.94% (-3.61)
Robert Prcic (LIB): 3.87% (-5.29)
Jennifer Burgess (NDP): 3.75% (+0.00)
Polly Knowlton Cockett (GRN): 2.20% (+2.20)
Michelle Glavine (AP): 1.79% (+1.79)
Dave Woody Phillips (IND): 0.19% (+0.19)

[Njall]

Edmonton-Whitemud 95/95 polls reporting:
Stephen Mandel (PC): 42.36% (-18.13)
Bob Turner (NDP): 22.23% (+13.09)
Tim Grover (WRP): 18.90% (+2.59)
Donna Wilson (LIB): 14.42% (+2.70)
William Munsey (AP): 1.43% (-0.92)
Rene Malenfant (GRN): 0.67% (+0.67)

[DL]

The NDP's 2nd place showing with 22% in Edmonton-Whitemud is particularly good when you consider that White is absolutely the worst riding in the whole city for the NDP - its very wealthy and very suburban - they didn't even come close to winning there when they swept Edmonton in the 80s.

[Njall]

Calgary-Elbow 83/83 polls reporting:
Gordon Dirks (PC): 33.21% (-24.88)
Greg Clark (AP): 26.94% (+24.25)
John Fletcher (WRP): 24.13% (-4.45)
Susan Wright (LIB): 11.99% (+6.46)
Stephanie McLean (NDP): 3.73% (-0.22)

[Citizen Hats]

Every time I hear about the Alberta Party I wish they would go away. I don't know what inspires such distaste in me for a minor party

[Boston Bread]

I would seriously suggest that the NDP and Liberals in Alberta merge. It makes them competitive enough so that strategic voting wouldn't even be necessary to stop Wildrose, at least in most urban seats. Plus if the left has near zero presence seat-wise, the PCs will be more inclined to cater right to fend off Wildrose. If BC Liberals and the Sask. Party pulled off mergers so could they.

[lilTommy]

I would seriously suggest that the NDP and Liberals in Alberta merge. It makes them competitive enough so that strategic voting wouldn't even be necessary to stop Wildrose, at least in most urban seats. Plus if the left has near zero presence seat-wise, the PCs will be more inclined to cater right to fend off Wildrose. If BC Liberals and the Sask. Party pulled off mergers so could they.

The NDP won't think of these, let along its the only party in Canada where the federal and provincial wings are joined; there are big ideological differences between the NDP and Liberals. I could see the Liberals fold into the PCs as you have in BC (sorta) or even the Alberta Party and the Liberals merging  before the NDP merges with the Liberals.
Also at this point, the NDP is leading or close to leading in Edmonton, and they have a new leader. Not happening. The Liberals on the other hand are in a bit more of a mess

[Hatman 🍁]

I know a lot of non-ideological people on the left want the Liberals and NDP to merge, but there are more similarities between Liberals and Tories than there are between Liberals and the NDP. Better for the Liberals and Alberta Party to merge.

Interesting results. Not a bad night for the Tories. A terrible night for Wildrose. All four ridings are fairly wealthy, especially Elbow and Whitemud, and it appears the wealthy in Alberta do not like Wildrose. Jim Prentice is a natural fit for the Alberta upper class.

[andrew_c]

I would seriously suggest that the NDP and Liberals in Alberta merge. It makes them competitive enough so that strategic voting wouldn't even be necessary to stop Wildrose, at least in most urban seats. Plus if the left has near zero presence seat-wise, the PCs will be more inclined to cater right to fend off Wildrose. If BC Liberals and the Sask. Party pulled off mergers so could they.

There's pretty much no way the Liberals and NDP would consider and electoral pact/coalition, never mind a merger.

[Njall]

Interesting results. Not a bad night for the Tories. A terrible night for Wildrose. All four ridings are fairly wealthy, especially Elbow and Whitemud, and it appears the wealthy in Alberta do not like Wildrose. Jim Prentice is a natural fit for the Alberta upper class.

In Lethbridge College's yearly polls of the Alberta provincial political scene, the PCs are consistently do the best amongst Albertans with household incomes over $120,000.  Voters over the age of 65 (and to a lesser extent, those between 45 and 64) also seem to favour the PCs over the Wildrose.  WRP support is more pronounced in middle-aged, lower-middle to middle class Albertans.

[Hatman 🍁]

The similarities between Toronto and Alberta are hard to ignore.

Wildrose = Ford Nation
PCs = John Tory

[Njall]

Danielle Smith will submit herself to a leadership review at the WRP AGM in November; she wants to get above the 'magic number' of 77% to stay on as leader.

[DC Al Fine]

I know a lot of non-ideological people on the left want the Liberals and NDP to merge, but there are more similarities between Liberals and Tories than there are between Liberals and the NDP. Better for the Liberals and Alberta Party to merge.

Indeed.

Unite the left sentiments tend to have a strong "Stop Harper" tinge to them and ignore that the differences between Liberal and NDP cut quite deep; deeper than the the old Tory-Reform split.

Also, why does the Alberta Party even exist? I can't see who they're appealing too that the other parties don't have locked up.

[Boston Bread]

In Ontario or federally I wouldn't support such a merger - but I thought that maybe in Alberta where the centre-left has had a history of being locked out it might work out to their advantage. I mean any merger - Alberta+Liberals, whatever. If the parties themselves don't want it then I guess the status quo stays there for yet another decade or two.
I really do want to see the old PC elite to get their day of reckoning, just not by Wildrose which would be worse.

[Hatman 🍁]

Even if all the left wing and centrist parties merged in Alberta, it would be nowhere near close enough to even form official opposition.

A lot of progressives backed (and still back) the PCs, to stop Wildrose. I think one of our posters here, njall is one such example.

[Citizen Hats]

Even if all the left wing and centrist parties merged in Alberta, it would be nowhere near close enough to even form official opposition.

A lot of progressives backed (and still back) the PCs, to stop Wildrose. I think one of our posters here, njall is one such example.

I'm sure Njall might correct us, but I believe s/he is a bona-fide Alberta PC. Not so much of a CPC person

[adma]

And keep in mind that the Alberta New Democrats are now led by Rachel Notley--daughter of party icon Grant Notley.  And a lot are banking on that fact.  (Shades of Justin Trudeau, but with more substance.)

[Njall]

Also, why does the Alberta Party even exist? I can't see who they're appealing too that the other parties don't have locked up.

The Alberta Party seems to be orienting itself as a 'catch-all' party, particularly for voters in the political centre and centre-left.  It doesn't seem to have a comprehensive platform as of yet, and instead appears to be defining itself with broad goals that would be agreeable to almost anyone.  That said, I think of their base as largely being made up of former Liberal voters, and centrist/progressive voters who are disenchanted with the other parties.

Even if all the left wing and centrist parties merged in Alberta, it would be nowhere near close enough to even form official opposition.

A lot of progressives backed (and still back) the PCs, to stop Wildrose. I think one of our posters here, njall is one such example.

I'm sure Njall might correct us, but I believe s/he is a bona-fide Alberta PC. Not so much of a CPC person

(I'm a 'he,' for the record)

That's pretty much spot-on.  I will admit that back in 2012 when I got involved with the party, my main goal was to help defeat the WRP incumbent in my riding.  However, when I did get involved and when I met other people who were involved with the party, I realized that the (post-Klein) PCs are actually a pretty good fit for the pragmatic, moderate political direction that I generally subscribe to.  The broad label 'progressive' is probably fitting for me, and I do certainly consider myself to be on the left/progressive side of the party, but I still feel quite at home in the party, and I'm strongly supportive of Prentice's government thus far.

Federally, on the other hand, I'm very independent at the moment.  There are some CPC MPs whom I have a favourable view of at the moment, but I'm certainly not a Harper fan, and I wouldn't say that I support the CPC as a whole.

[Famous Mortimer]

Is what seperates the NDP and the Liberals worse than what seperates Tony Blair and Tony Benn? Bill Clinton and Dennis Kucinich? No. They could be one damn party.

[Hatman 🍁]

Is what seperates the NDP and the Liberals worse than what seperates Tony Blair and Tony Benn? Bill Clinton and Dennis Kucinich? No. They could be one damn party.

Yes, in a sense. The Liberals are a corporatist party. No way the rank and file NDPers would tolerate becoming a corporatist party.  Dennis Kucinich doesn't seem to have that problem.

Would Bernie Sanders become a Democrat? No.

[Citizen Hats]

Bernie Sanders sits in the Democratic caucus, he votes with them on procedural votes, and he runs in and wins the Democratic primary. He is a cosmetic-independent

[Hatman 🍁]

Aside from the political and cultural differences, who's to say we have it wrong in Canada, whereas the US has it right? I would love it if the US had its own social democratic party.

But, I have to go back to my earlier point. The Liberals and Tories have a lot more in common than the Liberals and NDP. Look no further than the Toronto mayoral election. Liberals in Toronto had the choice between a conservative (John Tory) and a New Democrat (Olivia Chow) and overwhelmingly backed Tory.  A lot of that was to stop Ford, but remember, Chow had been leading at one point.

Similarly, we saw in the federal election, a lot of Liberals switching to the Conservatives to stop the NDP.

In a lot urban centres there are a lot of people who switch between the NDP and Liberals, but they pale in comparison between the Liberal-Conservative swing voters in the more populous suburbs.

[adma]

W/the Alta Liberals, depends on which way the wind is blowing.  In fact, back when they were most in contention for power (i.e. the early 90s under Decore), they were aggressively bidding for the PC "right vote".