Canadian by-elections, 2014
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2014  (Read 59689 times)
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #625 on: October 29, 2014, 09:52:15 PM »

Don't forget the Ontario Liberals were to the right of the Tories in the 1970s and early 80s.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #626 on: October 30, 2014, 05:06:02 AM »

Aside from the political and cultural differences, who's to say we have it wrong in Canada, whereas the US has it right? I would love it if the US had its own social democratic party.

But, I have to go back to my earlier point. The Liberals and Tories have a lot more in common than the Liberals and NDP. Look no further than the Toronto mayoral election. Liberals in Toronto had the choice between a conservative (John Tory) and a New Democrat (Olivia Chow) and overwhelmingly backed Tory.  A lot of that was to stop Ford, but remember, Chow had been leading at one point.

Similarly, we saw in the federal election, a lot of Liberals switching to the Conservatives to stop the NDP.

In a lot urban centres there are a lot of people who switch between the NDP and Liberals, but they pale in comparison between the Liberal-Conservative swing voters in the more populous suburbs.

Precisely. People that think a Liberal-NDP merger will work like a Tory-Alliance one are hugely ignorant of history. The Liberals and NDP have spent the last 50 (closer 80 if you count the CCF) working against each other. Compare that to the two right wing parties who were only split for 10 years or so and spent provincial campaigns on the same team.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #627 on: October 30, 2014, 05:26:42 AM »
« Edited: October 30, 2014, 06:00:12 AM by New Canadaland »

But, I have to go back to my earlier point. The Liberals and Tories have a lot more in common than the Liberals and NDP.
The two parties have different bases, but policy wise I suspect the differences between the two parties  are smaller than your claim suggests. The socialist/CCF era is over. Don't get me wrong; I wish you were right about the NDP. Even if going far to the left might lose me, at least vote splitting would cease to be solely a problem of the centre-left. But recent NDP provincial governments haven't really done more than implement a stronger version of the social market ideology the Liberals support. And it looks like they'll continue to play that card if it lets them take more of the liberal base. The tories remain the only national party who doesn't share that ideology.

Plus, blue liberals are a minority. Look at second preferences in any national/ontario poll. A majority of voters currently have the Liberals and NDP listed as 1st/2nd preference in some fashion.
Nationally, the solution to all this is electoral reform, not a merger. There needs to be an NDP threat to prevent the Libs from going all Chretien on us. But if the NDP were really further left of the Liberals then they are to the Tories there wouldn't be a major conversation about strategic voting even in FPTP. In the current model there isn't nearly as much animosity between small-L liberals and small-D dippers as there are against Conservative parties. At the end of the day I just want Harper to get stomped in '15 and so do most of these non-partisan progressives. From that perspective you can understand why I want more interparty cooperation.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #628 on: October 30, 2014, 06:24:22 AM »

The Liberals aren't progressives though, they're centrists. When Progressives vote Liberal, they're suggesting they're OK with the country swinging to a centre vs centre-right dichotomy.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #629 on: October 30, 2014, 02:15:48 PM »

But, I have to go back to my earlier point. The Liberals and Tories have a lot more in common than the Liberals and NDP.
The two parties have different bases, but policy wise I suspect the differences between the two parties  are smaller than your claim suggests. The socialist/CCF era is over. Don't get me wrong; I wish you were right about the NDP. Even if going far to the left might lose me, at least vote splitting would cease to be solely a problem of the centre-left. But recent NDP provincial governments haven't really done more than implement a stronger version of the social market ideology the Liberals support. And it looks like they'll continue to play that card if it lets them take more of the liberal base. The tories remain the only national party who doesn't share that ideology.

Plus, blue liberals are a minority. Look at second preferences in any national/ontario poll. A majority of voters currently have the Liberals and NDP listed as 1st/2nd preference in some fashion.
Nationally, the solution to all this is electoral reform, not a merger. There needs to be an NDP threat to prevent the Libs from going all Chretien on us. But if the NDP were really further left of the Liberals then they are to the Tories there wouldn't be a major conversation about strategic voting even in FPTP. In the current model there isn't nearly as much animosity between small-L liberals and small-D dippers as there are against Conservative parties. At the end of the day I just want Harper to get stomped in '15 and so do most of these non-partisan progressives. From that perspective you can understand why I want more interparty cooperation.

The difference are starker when Liberals are in power. It's sure than they look similar right now, they oppose the same government and the right-wing swing voters voted for Conservatives last time.
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EPG
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« Reply #630 on: October 30, 2014, 02:54:17 PM »

As an outsider looking in, it seems to me that Canadian voters are really volatile in federal elections, even between strange pairs like centre-left and centre-right. So that suggests all the parties aren't that distant from each other.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #631 on: October 30, 2014, 04:02:06 PM »

As an outsider looking in, it seems to me that Canadian voters are really volatile in federal elections, even between strange pairs like centre-left and centre-right. So that suggests all the parties aren't that distant from each other.

More like we have a lot of wishy-washy centrists in this country.
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cp
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« Reply #632 on: October 30, 2014, 05:59:32 PM »

Or we have centrists who think a gradual shift to the left is more durable and desirable than a constant (losing) battle between the far left and the far right.
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adma
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« Reply #633 on: October 30, 2014, 08:49:31 PM »

Don't forget the Ontario Liberals were to the right of the Tories in the 1970s and early 80s.

And Manitoba Liberals up through the 60s, at least.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #634 on: October 30, 2014, 09:46:47 PM »
« Edited: October 30, 2014, 09:49:25 PM by New Canadaland »

Canadian voters are volatile at all levels, really. By now I've come to expect wild poll swings in any provincial election. The federal scene has been surprisingly stable post-Trudeau but when campaigning starts who knows.
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cp
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« Reply #635 on: October 31, 2014, 12:47:42 PM »

Changing topics slightly, the race to fill the late Jim Flaherty's seat in Whitby-Oshawa is back in the news:

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/10/30/justin_trudeau_joins_byelection_campaign_in_whitbyoshawa.html

The article indicates Forum conducted a poll that showed:
Tories: 41
Libs: 32
NDP: 15

Not exactly great news for anyone. The Tories are in the lead but by the slimmest margin since 2006; the Libs are far enough back to question whether they can win it; the NDP is doing no better than their historical average.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #636 on: November 05, 2014, 03:03:19 PM »

By-election today in Conception Bay South, NL. Profile: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/11/provincial-by-election-in-conception.html
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Citizen Hats
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« Reply #637 on: November 05, 2014, 03:09:09 PM »

thank god one of us is paying attention to Conception Bay South
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #638 on: November 05, 2014, 03:54:34 PM »

Haha. Well, it at least should be a close race. Those are always fun.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #639 on: November 05, 2014, 06:51:47 PM »

1/44 polls reporting on elections NL site.

However, some guy from CBC is reporting the Tories are ahead 457-421

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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #640 on: November 05, 2014, 07:19:41 PM »

This one is really, really close.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #641 on: November 05, 2014, 07:20:29 PM »

According to the Liberals, they have a 41 vote lead with 2 polls to go
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #642 on: November 05, 2014, 07:22:16 PM »

Final result according to Liberal HQ:

Lib 2102
PC 2034
NDP 120

As I predicted, super close. Bad night for the NDP, but chalk that up to the horse race going on.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #643 on: November 05, 2014, 07:35:16 PM »

Remember, the Liberals won 6 seats in 2011. They now have 14.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #644 on: November 05, 2014, 08:13:48 PM »

Final tally:

Liberal: 2102 (49.4; +42.6%)
PC: 2026 (47.6%; -21.6%)
NDP: 130 (3.1%; -21.0%)
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andrew_c
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« Reply #645 on: November 05, 2014, 09:12:24 PM »

PCs have just lost one of their safest seats in the province.
Based on what we see right now, the next election is almost certain to be a Liberal wave.
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DL
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« Reply #646 on: November 06, 2014, 03:56:32 PM »

PCs have just lost one of their safest seats in the province.
Based on what we see right now, the next election is almost certain to be a Liberal wave.

You may be right - but bear in mind that in 2012 the BC Liberals lost one of their "safest seats" - Chilliwack-Hope to the BC NDP and everyone said it was curtains for them...they won the general election and won back the seats they lost in byelections - so who knows.
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Citizen Hats
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« Reply #647 on: November 06, 2014, 04:47:59 PM »

They lost chilliwack because of the right's fleeting infatuation with the BC Conservative Party, which thanks to is lingering fringe mentality, and the utter lack of charisma found in the vaguely-more-credible-than-Wilif-Hanni John Cummins, completely dissipated by the time the general election rolled around
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andrew_c
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« Reply #648 on: November 07, 2014, 04:45:42 AM »

In the year leading up to the election, the BC Liberals were never behind by more than 30%.  Recently, the NL PCs are trailing the Liberals by over 30%.  The current PC situation is more like the BC NDP in late 2000.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #649 on: November 07, 2014, 06:56:12 AM »

The Tories will win a handful of seats, the question is which ones? Perhaps the leader's seat (Topsail).
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