Canadian by-elections, 2014
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Author Topic: Canadian by-elections, 2014  (Read 59687 times)
Vosem
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« Reply #675 on: November 17, 2014, 10:01:47 PM »

14/280 in Yellowhead: 905 CPC, 169 LPC, 91 NDP.

15/280 in Whitby: 607 LPC, 562 CPC, 112 NDP.

Hope Perkins can pull it out.
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emcee0
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« Reply #676 on: November 17, 2014, 10:01:58 PM »

Let's go Celina!!
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #677 on: November 17, 2014, 10:03:17 PM »

20/280 in Whitby: 836 CPC, 834 LPC.

55/284 in Yellowhead: 1340 CPC, 277 LPC.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #678 on: November 17, 2014, 10:04:12 PM »

CBC projects a Tory hold in Yellowhead.
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emcee0
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« Reply #679 on: November 17, 2014, 10:05:56 PM »

obviously
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #680 on: November 17, 2014, 10:07:04 PM »

Good job, CBC. You really had to try with that one.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #681 on: November 17, 2014, 10:07:22 PM »

36/280: 1548 CPC, 1426 LPC.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #682 on: November 17, 2014, 10:10:53 PM »

40/280: 1739 CPC, 1606 LPC.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #683 on: November 17, 2014, 10:19:00 PM »

65/280: 3106-2768 CPC  47.5/42.3 CPC. Looks like a comfortable hold.
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DL
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« Reply #684 on: November 17, 2014, 10:19:30 PM »

with 65/280 polls reporting the CPC has a 5% lead 47% to 42% - they will very likely win.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #685 on: November 17, 2014, 10:21:56 PM »

Yeah, Whitby is fairly homogenous. It's not like there's any strong Liberal areas waiting to be counted.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #686 on: November 17, 2014, 10:23:36 PM »

Will Trudeau pull a Hudak/Horwath in his spin?
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #687 on: November 17, 2014, 10:26:24 PM »

Libs need to win this riding to form a majority in 2014. Not good news if they lose.
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emcee0
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« Reply #688 on: November 17, 2014, 10:28:59 PM »

Libs need to win this riding to form a majority in 2014. Not good news if they lose.
But this is only a by election, with probably a depressed turnout
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #689 on: November 17, 2014, 10:29:33 PM »

Good job, CBC. You really had to try with that one.

Frankly professionalism was the only thing preventing them from declaring a Tory hold when the writ was dropped.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #690 on: November 17, 2014, 10:31:40 PM »

I think this thing's over. Forum Research done f**ked up again.

Libs need to win this riding to form a majority in 2014. Not good news if they lose.
But this is only a by election, with probably a depressed turnout

The Liberal spin machine has arrived!

Good job, CBC. You really had to try with that one.

Frankly professionalism was the only thing preventing them from declaring a Tory hold when the writ was dropped.

Why stop there? Why not call it as soon as it became vacant? Or after the last election? Or in perpetuity?
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cp
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« Reply #691 on: November 17, 2014, 10:32:14 PM »

Libs need to win this riding to form a majority in 2014. Not good news if they lose.
But this is only a by election, with probably a depressed turnout

And coming within 5 points or so after being third in 2011 is a pretty solid improvement. For liberals willing to settle for a minority and/or getting rid of Harper it's a promising sign.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #692 on: November 17, 2014, 10:33:07 PM »


Good job, CBC. You really had to try with that one.

Frankly professionalism was the only thing preventing them from declaring a Tory hold when the writ was dropped.

Why stop there? Why not call it as soon as it became vacant? Or after the last election? Or in perpetuity?

Reform 2.0 Tongue
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #693 on: November 17, 2014, 10:35:48 PM »

I admit it may be possible that Whitby-Oshawa has somehow eschewed the rest of the 905 and has become some sort of outlier Tory riding. I mean, it did buck the trend in the provincial election, but I thought there were other factors at play there.
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emcee0
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« Reply #694 on: November 17, 2014, 10:41:05 PM »

Lead is narrowing a bit
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cp
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« Reply #695 on: November 17, 2014, 10:45:35 PM »

Not enough to matter, I expect.

Just looked up the recent election results for the riding. If the current trends hold then the Tories will end up doing about as well as they did in 2006 while the libs will be somewhere between their 2004 win and their 2006 loss.

That squares with what I think would be the conventional wisdom - the Tories are weakened, probably enough to lose their majority but maybe not enough yet to lose government.
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emcee0
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« Reply #696 on: November 17, 2014, 10:45:49 PM »

And honestly I can't realistically see any of the parties winning a majority at all. Who ever wins will likely get a minority
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Vosem
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« Reply #697 on: November 17, 2014, 10:46:07 PM »

I admit it may be possible that Whitby-Oshawa has somehow eschewed the rest of the 905 and has become some sort of outlier Tory riding. I mean, it did buck the trend in the provincial election, but I thought there were other factors at play there.

I think those same other factors are still at play here (if only to a lesser extent) -- namely, sympathy for the Tories as a result of Flaherty's death. It'll wear off soon, but I don't think it quite has yet.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #698 on: November 17, 2014, 10:53:43 PM »

CBC projects Whitby remains Blue.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #699 on: November 17, 2014, 10:55:52 PM »

While I didn't expect a liberal win the CPC getting 48% isn't a good sign for them.
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