Canadian by-elections, 2014

[DC Al Fine]

Humber East had the highest PC vote in the last election, so if that swing happened across the province, the Tories would be wiped out. It wouldn't be a Campbelling, it would be a McKennaning.

Well the Liberals are polling at Albertaesque levels in Newfoundland, so its a definite possibility

[RogueBeaver]

So... anyone have a quick explainer of how a would-be dynasty self-vaporized?

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, I think there are probably a few popular Tory incumbents that will hang on. The thing about these by-elections are, there are no incumbents.

Humber East may have been the best riding for the Tories in 2011, but I wouldn't call it a safe Tory seat. Obviously Marshall had some personal strength. But, every single poll went Liberal there in the federal election. I'm thinking a riding like Ferryland will be a little more impenetrable.

[DC Al Fine]

So... anyone have a quick explainer of how a would-be dynasty self-vaporized?

In no particular order

1) Stephen Harper
2) Nasty labour disputes
3) The party`s been coasting on Danny Williams`rep since 2007 or so.

[Hatman 🍁]

Trudeaumania?

[DC Al Fine]

Trudeaumania?

Yeah, can't forget that.

[Boston Bread]

Wow Humber East! Almost a 100 point swing in margin! Are the PCs there going to distance themselves from Harper? Or even go ABC like Danny in 2008?

[DC Al Fine]

Are the PCs there going to distance themselves from Harper? Or even go ABC like Danny in 2008?

Yes, No.

[toaster]

It is alleged that Kathleen Wynne is involved in a bribery scandal in the Sudbury (Ontario) By-election Liberal Nomination.  The former Liberal Candidate (who came quite close) has posted a long message on Facebook to this effect.  

https://www.facebook.com/AndrewOlivierSudbury/posts/728456320556542

The NDP has brought this forward to Chief Electoral Officer.

http://www.ontariondp.ca/ndp_to_elections_ontario_investigate_alleged_bribery_attempt_in_sudbury

[Hatman 🍁]

Good news for the NDP, because they need a scandal if they're going to hold the seat. Even better news for Andrea Horwath, because a loss would be a huge blow for her leadership.

[RogueBeaver]

So with Thibeault running in Sudbury that means a federal vacancy, though I guess it remains so till the election.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow... I guess he figures he has a better chance of winning a by-election after this Liberal scandal than holding on to his seat in the federal election.

ETA: Holy f*** he switched parties???

[RogueBeaver]

He could become either a PS or minister if his reference to mandate letters is any indicator (via David Akin).

[lilTommy]

He could become either a PS or minister if his reference to mandate letters is any indicator (via David Akin).

He has to win, and this move no matter what he says will anger more people then motivate them.

[Boston Bread]

Sudbury is getting interesting! There haven't been any recent provincial Ontario polls but it seems like OLP support remains solid even though the government hasn't gotten any cleaner.

[DC Al Fine]

Wow... I guess he figures he has a better chance of winning a by-election after this Liberal scandal than holding on to his seat in the federal election.

ETA: Holy f*** he switched parties???

So when's the last time something like this happened?

[Boston Bread]

Actually, there have been a few provincial polls from forum in November.
http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/ON%20Horserace%20News%20Release%20(2014%2011%2029)%20Forum%20Research.pdf
37% OLP (-3% from last poll)
37% PC (+2%)
17% NDP (-2%)
7% Green
Not good news for the NDP, but take it with a grain of salt as this is province-wide, Forum underestimated the NDP in June, and we don't have any other pollsters to confirm. Nonetheless 308 has moved Subdury to "Likely Liberal" based on the liberal strength in the Forum polls, and maybe Thibeault's candidacy.

[Holmes]

Thibeault must be setting himself up to be the Charlie Crist of Ontario. Gosh, I wonder what Wynne promised Thibeault? No matter, I want to see him go down in flames. A loss for Wynne is a victory for Ontario. Down with the carpetbagger. Liberals need to stop pretending like they care about Northern Ontario and stop trying to represent us. We need representation that actually gives a damn.

[Hatman 🍁]

Actually, there have been a few provincial polls from forum in November.
http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/ON%20Horserace%20News%20Release%20(2014%2011%2029)%20Forum%20Research.pdf
37% OLP (-3% from last poll)
37% PC (+2%)
17% NDP (-2%)
7% Green
Not good news for the NDP, but take it with a grain of salt as this is province-wide, Forum underestimated the NDP in June, and we don't have any other pollsters to confirm. Nonetheless 308 has moved Subdury to "Likely Liberal" based on the liberal strength in the Forum polls, and maybe Thibeault's candidacy.

Remember that 308 is a terrible projector, especially with by-elections. Has he even got any of the Newfoundland by-elections correct?

[DC Al Fine]

Actually, there have been a few provincial polls from forum in November.
http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/ON%20Horserace%20News%20Release%20(2014%2011%2029)%20Forum%20Research.pdf
37% OLP (-3% from last poll)
37% PC (+2%)
17% NDP (-2%)
7% Green
Not good news for the NDP, but take it with a grain of salt as this is province-wide, Forum underestimated the NDP in June, and we don't have any other pollsters to confirm. Nonetheless 308 has moved Subdury to "Likely Liberal" based on the liberal strength in the Forum polls, and maybe Thibeault's candidacy.

Remember that 308 is a terrible projector, especially with by-elections. Has he even got any of the Newfoundland by-elections correct?

He correctly called a couple Liberal holds, but that doesn't really tell you anything. My fiance could call those and she doesn't even follow politics

[Linus Van Pelt]

Wow... I guess he figures he has a better chance of winning a by-election after this Liberal scandal than holding on to his seat in the federal election.

ETA: Holy f*** he switched parties???

So when's the last time something like this happened?

There's a sense in which Charest did this, though of course the situation with Quebec parties is different.

[adma]

There's a sense in which Charest did this, though of course the situation with Quebec parties is different.

And likewise, going the other direction, Mulcair.

[DC Al Fine]

And now that I think of it, Claude Wagner.

[RogueBeaver]

Sudbury poll: Thibeault 31, Dipper 28.

[Hatman 🍁]

Rather disappointing, but it's at least close. The NDP will need to pick someone with name recognition. Maybe John Rodriguez?