Canadian by-elections, 2014

[Njall]

Pardon my ignorance (I'm rather new to Canadian politics); but is there anyway Macleod could be won by the Liberal Party or the NDP?

no

This.  Macleod is literally one of the safest seats in the country for the Conservatives.  From 1988-2011, the lowest they've ever gotten there was 74.76% in 2004.  Back when the PC and reform/CA parties were separate, they would easily get a combined vote share of at least 80%.

The more interesting by-election will be Fort McMurray--Athabasca.  Granted, it's still very likely that it will stay conservative too, but the opposition parties do better up there.  And with the conservatives polling at or below 50% here recently, something could happen.

[Njall]

Barlow wins There is hope for gun country

It looks like the turnout in Okotoks was a pretty big factor in his victory; Okotoks is Barlow's home turf, and I remember reading that 1200 of the 1500 votes cast in the nomination were from there.

[Njall]

Vaughan leads 54/31 in Trinity-Spadina, Chan 46/38 in SA per Forum.

John Barlow also has 62% in Macleod, apparently (down from Menzies' 77.5% in 2011).  It's disappointing that Forum couldn't get a reliable sample for Fort McMurray--Athabasca - if anything, that's going to be the Alberta riding to watch.

[Njall]

In Calgary, I'd be quite confident in saying that the Liberals will will Calgary Skyview; their strong (for Alberta) result in 2011 and excellent candidate in Darshan Kang will make for a good race.  In Calgary Centre and Calgary Confederation, I could see the Conservative candidates losing if consensus progressive candidates emerge in both ridings.  In each riding, the CPC got roughly 55% of the vote, but the other 45% was a 3-way split, with each opposition party receiving between 10% and 20%.  Matt Grant is shaping up to be a pretty good Liberal candidate in Confederation. 

[Njall]

Not surprising; the Liberal campaign seemed to be pretty focused there, and Yurdiga wasn't from Fort McMurray.  Does it say anywhere what the results were from the part of the riding that will make up Fort McMurray--Cold Lake in 2015?

[Njall]

As I suspected: Stephen Mandel will be the PC candidate in Edmonton-Whitemud, and Gordon Dirks will run for the PCs in Calgary-Elbow.  No word yet on where Prentice will run.

[Njall]

Interesting article from the Herald today; MRU Political Scientist Duane Bratt and pollster Janet Brown are doing a study to see the correlation between the number of lawn signs on private property and the actual results for each of the Calgary by-elections.  Their results for lawn sign numbers were published today: Prentice is far ahead in Foothills, while Dirks is leading a three-way race in Elbow and Taylor is ahead in West.

[Njall]

Wow, the Alberta Party is really gunning for Elbow, aren't they? I was expecting the third party there to be the Liberals.

Yeah, they're going all out in Elbow; they have signs everywhere, ads online, and everything.  They're also getting a lot of attention from the media, since they seem to be trying to make this by-election turn out to be a repeat of 2007, except with an Alberta Party victory.  Unfortunately for them, the Liberals found a pretty strong candidate in Susan Wright, and they're running a pretty active campaign here compared to the other ridings.

[Njall]

WRP up by 4% over PCs in Calgary-West (presumably from advance votes)

[Njall]

Holy ****!  Prentice takes 91% of Calgary-Foothills advance poll votes.

EDIT: Hang on, that doesn't sound right...

[Njall]

Holy ****!  Prentice takes 91% of Calgary-Foothills advance poll votes.

EDIT: Hang on, that doesn't sound right...

Ok, Elections Alberta fixed it.  Prentice takes 65% of the advance vote, MacDonald takes 27%

[Njall]

Edmonton-Whitemud advance poll: PC 44%, NDP 22%, WRP 20%, LIB 12%
Calgary-Elbow advance poll: PC 35%, WRP 27%, AP 23%, LIB 12%, NDP 4%

[Njall]

PCs now trailing WRP by 11 votes in Calgary-West; Ellis has slowly been making up the WRP advance poll lead.

[Njall]

PCs now ahead in Calgary-West. Looks like the WRP is having trouble winning in their key areas, specifically Signal Hill. I think the Tories will win it.

That's certainly how it's been trending over the course of the night so far.  And Dirks' lead hasn't particularly faltered in Elbow.  The PCs just might take all four ridings

[Njall]

Interesting sidenote: The Alberta Party just took 2nd place in Calgary-Elbow

[Njall]

Calgary-West 74/74 polls reporting:
Mike Ellis (PC): 44.44% (-5.51)
Sheila Taylor (WRP): 41.55% (+4.22)
David Khan (LIB): 8.50% (+1.04)
Brian Malkinson (NDP): 3.08% (+0.07)
Troy Millington (AP): 2.43% (+1.46)

[Njall]

Calgary-Foothills 79/79 polls reporting:
Jim Prentice (PC): 58.26% (+4.72)
Kathy MacDonald (WRP): 29.94% (-3.61)
Robert Prcic (LIB): 3.87% (-5.29)
Jennifer Burgess (NDP): 3.75% (+0.00)
Polly Knowlton Cockett (GRN): 2.20% (+2.20)
Michelle Glavine (AP): 1.79% (+1.79)
Dave Woody Phillips (IND): 0.19% (+0.19)

[Njall]

Edmonton-Whitemud 95/95 polls reporting:
Stephen Mandel (PC): 42.36% (-18.13)
Bob Turner (NDP): 22.23% (+13.09)
Tim Grover (WRP): 18.90% (+2.59)
Donna Wilson (LIB): 14.42% (+2.70)
William Munsey (AP): 1.43% (-0.92)
Rene Malenfant (GRN): 0.67% (+0.67)

[Njall]

Calgary-Elbow 83/83 polls reporting:
Gordon Dirks (PC): 33.21% (-24.88)
Greg Clark (AP): 26.94% (+24.25)
John Fletcher (WRP): 24.13% (-4.45)
Susan Wright (LIB): 11.99% (+6.46)
Stephanie McLean (NDP): 3.73% (-0.22)

[Njall]

Interesting results. Not a bad night for the Tories. A terrible night for Wildrose. All four ridings are fairly wealthy, especially Elbow and Whitemud, and it appears the wealthy in Alberta do not like Wildrose. Jim Prentice is a natural fit for the Alberta upper class.

In Lethbridge College's yearly polls of the Alberta provincial political scene, the PCs are consistently do the best amongst Albertans with household incomes over $120,000.  Voters over the age of 65 (and to a lesser extent, those between 45 and 64) also seem to favour the PCs over the Wildrose.  WRP support is more pronounced in middle-aged, lower-middle to middle class Albertans.

[Njall]

Danielle Smith will submit herself to a leadership review at the WRP AGM in November; she wants to get above the 'magic number' of 77% to stay on as leader.

[Njall]

Also, why does the Alberta Party even exist? I can't see who they're appealing too that the other parties don't have locked up.

The Alberta Party seems to be orienting itself as a 'catch-all' party, particularly for voters in the political centre and centre-left.  It doesn't seem to have a comprehensive platform as of yet, and instead appears to be defining itself with broad goals that would be agreeable to almost anyone.  That said, I think of their base as largely being made up of former Liberal voters, and centrist/progressive voters who are disenchanted with the other parties.

Even if all the left wing and centrist parties merged in Alberta, it would be nowhere near close enough to even form official opposition.

A lot of progressives backed (and still back) the PCs, to stop Wildrose. I think one of our posters here, njall is one such example.

I'm sure Njall might correct us, but I believe s/he is a bona-fide Alberta PC. Not so much of a CPC person

(I'm a 'he,' for the record)

That's pretty much spot-on.  I will admit that back in 2012 when I got involved with the party, my main goal was to help defeat the WRP incumbent in my riding.  However, when I did get involved and when I met other people who were involved with the party, I realized that the (post-Klein) PCs are actually a pretty good fit for the pragmatic, moderate political direction that I generally subscribe to.  The broad label 'progressive' is probably fitting for me, and I do certainly consider myself to be on the left/progressive side of the party, but I still feel quite at home in the party, and I'm strongly supportive of Prentice's government thus far.

Federally, on the other hand, I'm very independent at the moment.  There are some CPC MPs whom I have a favourable view of at the moment, but I'm certainly not a Harper fan, and I wouldn't say that I support the CPC as a whole.