Canadian by-elections, 2014

[Citizen Hats]

Karygiannis is resigning Scarborough-Agincourt to run for TO council.

Good Riddance.  

Now Toronto City Council will be stuck with him *and* Doug Ford. Karygiannis a bully and there is no place in the future of the Liberal Party for people who operate like him

[Citizen Hats]

Well yes, there are the old tribal voting patterns of Catholics voting Liberal and Protestants voting Tory (opposite in Newfoundland). But I think the Liberals were usually always more socially progressive than the conservatives, right?

"Social issues" were simply a different set of issue cleavages before the 1960s. LGBT issues or abortion were simply not issues, versus temperance or British-imperialism which cut 'progress' in different ways

[Citizen Hats]

Well yes, there are the old tribal voting patterns of Catholics voting Liberal and Protestants voting Tory (opposite in Newfoundland). But I think the Liberals were usually always more socially progressive than the conservatives, right?

"Social issues" were simply a different set of issue cleavages before the 1960s. LGBT issues or abortion were simply not issues, versus temperance or British-imperialism which cut 'progress' in different ways

I am well aware that gay rights were not an issue before the 1960s...

It is true that temperance was considered a "progressive issue" at the time, and the Liberals opposed it, but looking at the issue from today's point of view, temperance was very anti progressive.

Not sure if supporting British imperialism was ever a "progressive" view. Perhaps maybe in contrast with wanting to focus foreign policy with the US.

I wasn't saying that those were or weren't progressive positions, merely that they were issues.

[Citizen Hats]

On imperialism, wasn't Conservatives for and Liberals against?

Broadly speaking

[Citizen Hats]

Adam Vaughan will seek the Grit nomination in Trinity-Spadina.

A fair number of Liberals I know are decidedly not fans

[Citizen Hats]

Should the NDP be happy about Vaughan's candidacy?

Me thinks no. The kinds of Liberals which really dislike Vaughn are likely to be the kinds that don't tend to be Liberal voters in Trinity Spadina.

[Citizen Hats]

I doubt than his anti bar crusade will be popular with young inhabitants.

Methinks the kinds of "young inhabitants" who are cheesed off at said "crusade" are more likely to be 905ers than locals.

Or, for that matter, the cheesed-off are more likely to be bar owners projecting their own cheesed-offness upon the clientele (and pretending said clientele is more "local" than it is, to boot)

Could some one help me with this issue? Are these 'bars' in question 'nightclubs'?

[Citizen Hats]

Sure, but those nightlives might be completely different things. Taking what I know locally, If I lived in Vancouver Centre, rather than East, It would be because of the nightlife available, but it sure as heck wouldn't be the nightlife on the Granville Strip, where public policy has located most of the clubbing places. It would be for all the bars and clubs available in the riding that aren't thickly populated with tasteless D-bags. If that's what Vaughn is taking about, I'm much more sympathetic (so someone fill me in)

[Citizen Hats]

Another question- Are Toronto Wards simply half-ridings?

[Citizen Hats]

In fact, I feel betrayed by Vaughan and I've spoken to others who may need to start a support group.

But does it matter in the end?  No.  Snagging Vaughan was a brilliant move by the Liberals. 

... This is how i feel exactly... It just means the NDP now has to work that much harder, we do like to make a big deal about campaigning as the underdog

They seem to not be on that shtick anymore. All the NDP branded material I've seen lately predominately says 'Official Opposition' underneath the party name, in case anyone forgot

[Citizen Hats]

If Vaughan won, would he have a chance under the new boundaries next year?

Of course; both successor ridings are less NDP friendly.

I think Freeland is already running for the Nomination for University-Rosedale, so If Vaughan won TS he'd "have to" run in Fort York-Spadina... "Have to" because he can run in either riding, he could choose to give a big FU to the Liberal party and have two MPs fight for the nom in University-Rosedale. 

U-R has had it's nomination meeting already. The remotest possibility of such a contest has been forclosed

[Citizen Hats]

that could create interesting dynamic federally in Trinity-Spadina since the federal NDP has declared itself open to any form of cooperation with the Liberals (e.g. coalition, accord etc...) in order to defeat Harper - while the Liberals under Trudeau reject working with anyone and have stated that they have no inte

When have the Federal NDP said any such thing?

[Citizen Hats]

". Further, the nomination rules for Trinity-Spadina were changed so that all candidates received the membership lists and forms prior to being green lit, which provided Adam Vaughan with critical information that all candidates had waited several weeks to receive. Regardless of the outcome, these circumstances have not been consistent with an open nomination process."

I'm really not sure what he means here. 

[Citizen Hats]

Would the ruling on citizens living in foreign countries would apply to those by-elections (context: a Court ruled than removing the right of vote to citizens living in foreign coutries since more than 5 years was unconstitionnal. That would lead to one million of persons possibly added on rolls.)?

I'm looking to sign up my expat parents ASAP. Three votes for me!

[Citizen Hats]

Would the ruling on citizens living in foreign countries would apply to those by-elections (context: a Court ruled than removing the right of vote to citizens living in foreign coutries since more than 5 years was unconstitionnal. That would lead to one million of persons possibly added on rolls.)?

I am guessing in this case they would go by the last riding one lived in when they left Canada.  My question is what about those who have never lived in Canada but got citizenship by being born to a Canadian born parent, what happens then?

Apparently for American citizens in such a situation you vote from your parents last address

[Citizen Hats]

Man, if NDP lose Trinity-Spadina and the provincial election ends up the way it seems to be heading, I'll just pack up my bags for California sooner rather than later.

Ahh, the state of Nixon and Reagan? And... Orange County?

 

Sort if the same thing in reverse really.

[Citizen Hats]

Moving to the US would be a deal breaker for any relationship I'm in (sorry, Holmes). As liberal as parts of California are, even with Tim Hudak as Premier, Ontario would be a better place. At least we'd still have universal health care.

Oh, and the Liberals winning Trinity-Spadina may be awful, but not quite as awful as many California Democrats.

I suppose if you're wealthy though, California is a better place to go.

Most jobs come with health insurance. Taxes are lower, prices are lower, and the beer is cheaper and more delicious, and incomes are higher.  That being said, it sucks to be poor but many Canadians think the US is much worse than it is. 

I lived in Monterey for 17 years.  Decent place

[Citizen Hats]

Moving to the US would be a deal breaker for any relationship I'm in (sorry, Holmes). As liberal as parts of California are, even with Tim Hudak as Premier, Ontario would be a better place. At least we'd still have universal health care.

Oh, and the Liberals winning Trinity-Spadina may be awful, but not quite as awful as many California Democrats.

I suppose if you're wealthy though, California is a better place to go.

Most jobs come with health insurance. Taxes are lower, prices are lower, and the beer is cheaper and more delicious, and incomes are higher.  That being said, it sucks to be poor but many Canadians think the US is much worse than it is. 

I lived in Monterey for 17 years.  Decent place

I'm sure you read that report that says our incomes are now higher than the US?

But yeah, if you're rich, it's great to live in the US. But is it wrong to rate a country by how its poor are?

I didn't say that it was. Firstly, you're insisting on a rich-poor dichotomy. Secondly, we're talking about quality of life. If you're not poor then you don't have to deal with the problems of poor people. Most Canadian people aren't poor and have marketable skills, and therefore this isn't a quality of life issue for them.  We aren't rating a country holistically ,rather what the prospects are for moving there.

[Citizen Hats]

Oh? wow, my part of the state definitely. I was actually out in Prunedale, small area south of Watsonville

The Santa Cruz-Aptos belt is quite nice, though a bit pricely. Lots of things to do in Santa Cruz.  West Coast weather's kinda screwy for those used to a continental climate, but there's usually good weather just over the mountains.  There's good hiking in the Santa Cruz mountains and other areas, and the Monterey Bay Acquarium, Big Sur, San Francisco, and San Jose are only short drives away

Santa Cruz is definitely among the more politically left parts of the state.

[Citizen Hats]

Is that internal data? , and secondly, Brandon Souris had a lot of trouble because rural route addresses are difficult to survey

[Citizen Hats]

From what I understand, it's difficult to tie those phone numbers to addresses in specific ridings

[Citizen Hats]

From what I understand, it's difficult to tie those phone numbers to addresses in specific ridings

That's bullsh**t - samples of phone numbers can be bought by postal code and by federal electoral district...in any case most of the non-Brandon part of Brandon-Souris would be people living in smaller towns outside Brandon - as opposed to people living on ranches.

A bigger problem is the fact that in an inner city riding like Trinity-Spadina with a very young population - it is impossible to get any riding specific cell phone sample.

If it's bullsh**t, you should give Forum and several political parties a ring. They'd love to know.

Furthermore the no-landline-concerns never seem to pan out.  Perhaps such concerns tend to be cancelled out by their rather low turnout rates. In a byelection, I'd be shocked if they mattered much.

[Citizen Hats]

It's certainly been an eventful month for us politics junkies! I'm really looking forward to seeing your FM-A map, Earl. I don't know anything about the area but with all the tar sands activity going on it must be a fascinating demographic/economic situation.

Trudeau visited the riding recently. The report on it is pretty sympathetic. http://www.fortmcmurraytoday.com/2014/06/25/trudeau-harrietha-make-final-pitch-to-fort-mcmurray-voters

I wonder if this means the Libs really think they have a shot, or at least don't need to reinforce their flanks in T-S and S-A.

I think the Tories are going to get spooked in Fort Mac.  I also did a profile on the riding a ways backhttp://cartoview.blogspot.ca/2014/05/fort-mcmurrayathabaska.html

[Citizen Hats]

Well, I won't be able to top that. But, you might want to change the spelling of Athabasca on your maps.

I wouldn't be a Left Coast Liberal Elite without a few careless misspellings though

[Citizen Hats]

send it to me I'll do it