Canadian by-elections, 2014

[Boston Bread]

I would seriously suggest that the NDP and Liberals in Alberta merge. It makes them competitive enough so that strategic voting wouldn't even be necessary to stop Wildrose, at least in most urban seats. Plus if the left has near zero presence seat-wise, the PCs will be more inclined to cater right to fend off Wildrose. If BC Liberals and the Sask. Party pulled off mergers so could they.

[Boston Bread]

In Ontario or federally I wouldn't support such a merger - but I thought that maybe in Alberta where the centre-left has had a history of being locked out it might work out to their advantage. I mean any merger - Alberta+Liberals, whatever. If the parties themselves don't want it then I guess the status quo stays there for yet another decade or two.
I really do want to see the old PC elite to get their day of reckoning, just not by Wildrose which would be worse.

[Boston Bread]

But, I have to go back to my earlier point. The Liberals and Tories have a lot more in common than the Liberals and NDP.

The two parties have different bases, but policy wise I suspect the differences between the two parties  are smaller than your claim suggests. The socialist/CCF era is over. Don't get me wrong; I wish you were right about the NDP. Even if going far to the left might lose me, at least vote splitting would cease to be solely a problem of the centre-left. But recent NDP provincial governments haven't really done more than implement a stronger version of the social market ideology the Liberals support. And it looks like they'll continue to play that card if it lets them take more of the liberal base. The tories remain the only national party who doesn't share that ideology.

Plus, blue liberals are a minority. Look at second preferences in any national/ontario poll. A majority of voters currently have the Liberals and NDP listed as 1st/2nd preference in some fashion.
Nationally, the solution to all this is electoral reform, not a merger. There needs to be an NDP threat to prevent the Libs from going all Chretien on us. But if the NDP were really further left of the Liberals then they are to the Tories there wouldn't be a major conversation about strategic voting even in FPTP. In the current model there isn't nearly as much animosity between small-L liberals and small-D dippers as there are against Conservative parties. At the end of the day I just want Harper to get stomped in '15 and so do most of these non-partisan progressives. From that perspective you can understand why I want more interparty cooperation.

[Boston Bread]

Canadian voters are volatile at all levels, really. By now I've come to expect wild poll swings in any provincial election. The federal scene has been surprisingly stable post-Trudeau but when campaigning starts who knows.

[Boston Bread]

While I didn't expect a liberal win the CPC getting 48% isn't a good sign for them.

[Boston Bread]

Hopefully we get an early by-election in Peterborough as that is a seat the liberals should be expected to win (if they want to form government) instead of these fool's gold seats.

[Boston Bread]

I heard McAuliffe of the NDP was being primed to run in Oshawa after this run. Is she still planning to after the weak performance? It wasn't her fault for the strategic stampede at least.

[Boston Bread]

Sudbury by-election must be called in 6 months according to Mike Crawley.
https://twitter.com/CBCQueensPark/status/535502535818481664

Will his early leave be treated as a negative?

[Boston Bread]

Wow Humber East! Almost a 100 point swing in margin! Are the PCs there going to distance themselves from Harper? Or even go ABC like Danny in 2008?

[Boston Bread]

Sudbury is getting interesting! There haven't been any recent provincial Ontario polls but it seems like OLP support remains solid even though the government hasn't gotten any cleaner.

[Boston Bread]

Actually, there have been a few provincial polls from forum in November.
http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/ON%20Horserace%20News%20Release%20(2014%2011%2029)%20Forum%20Research.pdf
37% OLP (-3% from last poll)
37% PC (+2%)
17% NDP (-2%)
7% Green
Not good news for the NDP, but take it with a grain of salt as this is province-wide, Forum underestimated the NDP in June, and we don't have any other pollsters to confirm. Nonetheless 308 has moved Subdury to "Likely Liberal" based on the liberal strength in the Forum polls, and maybe Thibeault's candidacy.