Canadian by-elections, 2014

[cp]

It's certainly been an eventful month for us politics junkies! I'm really looking forward to seeing your FM-A map, Earl. I don't know anything about the area but with all the tar sands activity going on it must be a fascinating demographic/economic situation.

Trudeau visited the riding recently. The report on it is pretty sympathetic. http://www.fortmcmurraytoday.com/2014/06/25/trudeau-harrietha-make-final-pitch-to-fort-mcmurray-voters

I wonder if this means the Libs really think they have a shot, or at least don't need to reinforce their flanks in T-S and S-A.

[cp]

Forum out. My reaction: invoke Wells' First Rule.

TS: 45% (-7), 35% (+1), 11% (-1), 9% (+7)

SA: 48% (-4%), 37% (+1), 10% (+2),

M: 54% (-7), 16% (+5), 4 (-7%), 16% (+7)

FMA: 41%, 33%, 13%.

Hmm, the first three seem about right but after Brandon-Souris I'm skeptical about any reports of Liberal strength in the West being anything but exaggerated. That said, the polls showing a Liberal victory in B-S came out a good week or two before the election date, giving time for the Tories to mount an effective defense. Maybe this time it was under the radar for too long.

What time do the polls close? When can we expect results?

[cp]

Indeed. They seemed to be getting closer and closer (4%/~1200 votes in CC, 2%/~400 votes in B-S) but in FM-A they've dropped back a bit (11%/~1500 votes).

In fairness, CC and B-S had some unique circumstances that might have made them closer than usual - Tory infighting, and a strong Green candidate in CC that probably split the vote.

Looking at it that way, maybe FM-A was the first accurate gauge of how well the Liberals can expect to do in the Tory heartland when facing a party that hasn't shot itself in the foot? If so, it's still better than they used to do in the 90s and 00s.

I wonder how Whitby-Oshawa will turn out. It's not the Tory heartland by any definition, but could the Liberals take it absent a self-inflicted Tory meltdown?

[cp]

I think sympathy for Jim Flaherty and Christine Elliott will keep it in the Tory camp.  You can really see the impact of the Flaherty factor in the provincial election where the Tories got turfed in the pretty conservative nearby seats of Northumberland and Durham (on paper more Tory-leaning than Whitby-Oshawa), as well as in conservative-populist working class Oshawa which went NDP.

True, although Elliott's vote share was down noticeably in 2014 and she won't be the one on the ballot. I think the only way the Liberals win in Whitby (without an unforced error by the Tories) is to get an amazing candidate akin to Vaughan in T-S or even Mulcair back in Outremont 2007.

[cp]

Or we have centrists who think a gradual shift to the left is more durable and desirable than a constant (losing) battle between the far left and the far right.

[cp]

Changing topics slightly, the race to fill the late Jim Flaherty's seat in Whitby-Oshawa is back in the news:

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/10/30/justin_trudeau_joins_byelection_campaign_in_whitbyoshawa.html

The article indicates Forum conducted a poll that showed:
Tories: 41
Libs: 32
NDP: 15

Not exactly great news for anyone. The Tories are in the lead but by the slimmest margin since 2006; the Libs are far enough back to question whether they can win it; the NDP is doing no better than their historical average.

[cp]

Any info on when we can expect results and where they will be published (aside from on here in nearly-real-time)?

[cp]

Libs need to win this riding to form a majority in 2014. Not good news if they lose.

But this is only a by election, with probably a depressed turnout

And coming within 5 points or so after being third in 2011 is a pretty solid improvement. For liberals willing to settle for a minority and/or getting rid of Harper it's a promising sign.

[cp]

Not enough to matter, I expect.

Just looked up the recent election results for the riding. If the current trends hold then the Tories will end up doing about as well as they did in 2006 while the libs will be somewhere between their 2004 win and their 2006 loss.

That squares with what I think would be the conventional wisdom - the Tories are weakened, probably enough to lose their majority but maybe not enough yet to lose government.