Canadian by-elections, 2014

[Linus Van Pelt]

Very interesting map, Krago (as usual).

[Linus Van Pelt]

He didn't say that Shurman crushed Farber in the whole riding, just that the areas where he did so were heavily Orthodox.

[Linus Van Pelt]

John Turmel is running in Thornhill under the party label "Paupers".

[Linus Van Pelt]

Too early to tell, or is something up? It'd be hilarious if the Tories won Niagara, Grits Thornhill.

The thing about a riding like Niagara Falls is that you never know if the first few are rural polls which would go Tory regardless of who won.

[Linus Van Pelt]

I'm starting to sense a trend in FR polls in terms of over estimating Tory vote. They're good at catching NDP surges however!

Weren't they the people who had the Liberals way ahead in Brandon-Souris, though?

[Linus Van Pelt]

Thornhill is now looking very close again. I think that based on its geographical polarization, it might seesaw around a bit.

[Linus Van Pelt]

In other news, the top Google hit when I type in "Thornhill" is a car dealership in Chapmanville, West Virginia. I guess the algorithms haven't found too many people searching about the 905 from the American midwest .

[Linus Van Pelt]

Sure, but those nightlives might be completely different things. Taking what I know locally, If I lived in Vancouver Centre, rather than East, It would be because of the nightlife available, but it sure as heck wouldn't be the nightlife on the Granville Strip, where public policy has located most of the clubbing places. It would be for all the bars and clubs available in the riding that aren't thickly populated with tasteless D-bags. If that's what Vaughn is taking about, I'm much more sympathetic (so someone fill me in)

Basically, yes.

Edit: just to add - this nightclub business is not really going to be a large issue in a federal by-election. The main point is that Vaughan is a well-known councillor on the anti-Ford left side of council, so he will be a tough candidate for the NDP to take on.

[Linus Van Pelt]

The wards haven't changed since 2000, so they're actually still based on the ridings from the 1996 representation order.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Wow... I guess he figures he has a better chance of winning a by-election after this Liberal scandal than holding on to his seat in the federal election.

ETA: Holy f*** he switched parties???

So when's the last time something like this happened?

There's a sense in which Charest did this, though of course the situation with Quebec parties is different.