Canadian by-elections, 2014

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Also waiting on a by-election in Niagara Falls (provincial)

Anything else?

Niagara Falls *and* Thornhill.

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Thornhill, Gosh, it was the only 905 PC win which makes me think Shurman himself was a big vote getter; the riding's history of going back and forth between the OLP and PCs with slim margins of victory makes me think Candidate might just be the deciding factor. The OLP brand is terrible but has stabilized, so to-close-to-call-leaning-OLP for me... even though you hope PC

Actually, what *really* cinched the riding for Shurman was John Tory's controversial 2007 private-school-funding platform coupled with (and not unrelated to) a more general post-Y2K Conservative courting of the Jewish/pro-Israel vote.  And as the incumbent in a year when no Tory incumbents were defeated, Shurman basically coasted to reelection in 2011 (though not by *too* much, thanks to star Grit candidate Bernie Farber)

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Yeah. Thornhill is all about the Jewish vote. If they go PC, you gotta win the non Jewish areas (west of Bathurst & East of Bayview) which vote similarly to the rest of the 905.

Or, the Grits could bid for their own Jewish-vote critical mass--thus their Bernie Farber gambit in 2011; also how Monte Kwinter survived and a bit how some of those close-calls in 2007 (like Eglinton-Lawrence) became Grit landslides in 2011...

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I think the federal Tories made inroads among Jewish voters largely by pandering to them over Israel. Its a different story at the provincial level where foreign policy is irrelevant - and so the small "l" liberal tendencies of Jewish voters tend to manifest themselves.

And yet, it was provincially in 2003 that the pandering first really began to manifest itself electorally (among other things, by turning Thornhill from the closest thing to a Liberal gain in the 416 in 1999, to the closest thing to a PC hold in the inner 416 in 2003).  And of course, John Tory's private-school jag in 2007 was all about such pandering--thus the Shurman gain.

It's only in 2011 that the provincial Liberals really "came to" re targeting the small-"l" liberal tendencies (and it helped that Hudak's campaign was so tin-eared on the ethno-politics front)

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Also, we're going to have a pretty boring set of by-elections soon. A ridiculously safe Tory seat and... ANOTHER ridiculously safe Tory seat

Though if rural/hinterland Alberta weren't rural/hinterland Alberta a la 2013, Brian Jean's seat could *ideally* be interesting, if Fort MacMurray ever had the guts to break Albertan habit...

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The NDPs strength down in Fort Erie (the south end of the riding) makes sense as the candidate back in 2011 was the former mayor of the city. It will be interesting to see if those votes stay with the NDP; also how NF city will be split seeing that the Liberals and NDP are running (if Gates wins the NDP nod) city Councillors. The Tories should sweep/win big in the North in Niagara-on-the-lake. Look for a North South divide. The OLP did well in 11 to keep their urban/rural seats (Peterborough, NF, Brant) but this will be a test of that, a lot can be chalked to candidate, no Craitor will be interesting.

Not *that* sure about a Tory NOTH sweep--actually, in 2011, the Tories and Libs ran about even there, because the former's rural strength was matched by the latter's strength in NOTH (and Queenston) proper.  There's a certain "Pink Tory" affluent/educated gentility in those historic centres for whom Hudak's redneck-pandering struck a sour note; and assuming the Liberals are still in the picture here, one can definitely see Premier Wynne having a "pull" with said demo.  But yes; NOTH is the weakest spot for the NDP--in fact, when it comes to N/S divides, it probably has less to do with Tory strength than with NDP un-strength; or perhaps, btw/ "PC" Tories and "Reform/Alliance" Tories, the former which were more amenable to parking their vote w/the McGuinty Liberals.  Even in 2007, Craitor fared worse vs Maves in Fort Erie than in NOTL--and in 2011, w/'the Redekop factor, the Grits were reduced to a solid 20% third in Fort Erie, while getting twice (!) that share in NOTL.

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Well, it would (I guess) seem from the poll that Wayne Gates was presented as the NDP candidate.  But still, it's interesting that it's this high, this early.

Nonetheless, I've been prepared for treating (strategically, at least) the PCs as the frontrunners here, because (a) they're the current frontrunners province-wide, (b) this is supposedly "natural" Hudak-hometown country, and (c) a possible "redemption through municipal politics" factor softening some of the Harris-retread stigma attached to Bart Maves.

But "frontrunners" does not mean "invulnerable".

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The only difference now is that the political climate in the province/country has altered, and the Liberal brand is more popular now.

I'm not sure if the provincial brand is that much (if any) more popular than in the last batch or two of byelections (after all, Justinmania was no help in London or Windsor)--but it does seem that the WynneGrits in NF are trying hard to overcome their recent "third place beyond BurlOak" stigma; so it'd be foolish to write them off, and not just on "incumbent party" grounds...

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Also, the NDP won the riding in 1990. Rule of thumb for this Parliament's set of by-elections: if the NDP won the seat in 1990, it will win the by-election.

I'd qualify that.  First re Kitchener-Waterloo: the NDP would have won within those boundaries in 1990; yet the fact remains that the actual predecessor seat was won by Liz Witmer--whose retirement spurred the NDP-steal byelection. 

And more to the point: all the 1990-era components of Scarborough-Guildwood went NDP that year--and the NDP still finished third, although much better than a lot expected.

But *absolutely* to the point: Etobicoke-Lakeshore's predecessor went Ruth Grier NDP by a landslide in 1990--and yet they lost their deposit in the byelection.

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we also have to remember that the Niagara (except Niagara Centre or the old Welland-Thorold) tends to be a swing region, went Liberal in 87, NDP in 90 and PC in 95.

True w/the 87-90-95 sequence (other than Jim Bradley's St Kitts).  But going into 1987, both Niagara Falls and Niagara South (ex Erie) were longtime Liberal seats against the grain of the Big Blue Machine.  And since then, the only true swing belwether has been Niagara Falls--the other Niagara seats being held through thick and thin by Bradley, Kormos/Forster, and Hudak.

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And to a small degree, a Thornhill Liberal loss can fall back on Harper's Israel gambit as an alibi.

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If Hudak cannot take Niagara Falls from the Liberals and it goes NDP instead - it begs the question - are there ANY ridings in the whole province that the PCs can gain.

Ones where the NDP isn't such a factor? (i.e. 905, et al)

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Methinks those early NF polls were from rural NOTL--where else, given the climate, wouldthe NDP be dancing w/3rd place.  (In rural Fort Erie, the Grits would be much further back.)

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Interestingly, the swing to the NDP in Niagara Falls wasn't as impressive as in Kitchener-Waterloo or London West. I wonder if there's less wind in the NDP's sails, or Niagara Falls is just less NDP-friendly than those other seats? Or perhaps running a very "union looking" man scared voters more than the friendly looking female school trustees that ran in the other two seats. (reverse sexism?) After all, there was a ridiculous campaign by the right wing parties calling Wayne Gates a "radical".

Or, it could just as well be that the PCs had a lot more that was concertedly invested here--Hudak's home seat, ex-MPP (and now with "municipal-pol" cred) in the running, etc.

But I don't think their inherent base in NF is as deep as it seems--a lot of it is by default thanks to the federal hold; but it's a pretty blue-collarish seat, really, a 3-way sort of place...

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The weird thing is: even before the byelection, I was speculating on the possibility that Old NOTL would be the Liberals' strongest spot if not their *sole* strong spot (i.e. the most Wynne-compatible node)--and, lo and behold, I was *correct*...

Another interesting observation--the NDP swept Chippawa.

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Does anyone know anything about Chippawa? I suppose it's a bit of a blue collar town.

Not really; more of a sleepy, comfy suburban/smalltownish satellite, though definitely not as affluent as NOTL.  James Cameron's hometown.  I might have expected more Tory headwind there...

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Nevermind: an aide clarified that Flaherty will be staying on as an MP. I guess till the election, but rather strange for a former FM to sit on the backbench for 14-18 months.

Paul Martin was a former PM and he kept his seat in Parliament right through the 2008 election.

And John Turner right into 1993.

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Now Toronto City Council will be stuck with him *and* Doug Ford.

Doug Ford's not running again.

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Wrong place for this I know, but... This means hes going up against (unless either of the Councillors is not running again) Mike Del Grande(ward 39) or Norm Kelly (40), both are conservatives but not fools like Ford or Mammoliti; I'd rather Kelly and Del Grande win then Karygiannis.

Del Grande's retiring.  Karygiannis is practically his "endorsed" replacement.

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As for Brampton-Springdale, it would be a harder fight for the NDP than Bramalea-Gore-Malton.

Compare

Bramtpon-Springdale:

Sikhs: 19%
South Asians: 38%
Avg. household income: $92K

Bramalea-Gore-Malton

Sikhs: 22%
South Asians: 45%
Avg. household income: $84K

Very similar yes, but not "good enough"

Still, who  knows.  It's worth noting that in 2004 and residually in 2006 (thanks to a schism in the local Grit camp due to Ruby Dhalla's "appointment" as candidate), this was actually the *best* federal NDP seat in the 905 belt save Oshawa...

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I doubt than his anti bar crusade will be popular with young inhabitants.

Methinks the kinds of "young inhabitants" who are cheesed off at said "crusade" are more likely to be 905ers than locals.

Or, for that matter, the cheesed-off are more likely to be bar owners projecting their own cheesed-offness upon the clientele (and pretending said clientele is more "local" than it is, to boot)

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Highly respected former mayor David Crombie will be at Vaughan's launch tomorrow.

Wouldn't surprise me at all if David Miller came out for Vaughan either.

Though difference is, Crombie's history is as a Red Tory, while Miller's is NDP, so the optics are "safer" for the former...

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3-way race in Scarborough-Agincourt?  No.

But if it *is* a race, one noteworthy thing to consider is that in the provincial-election preliminary numbers, the PCs got their highest 416 share *here* (yes, even higher than Doug Holyday)

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Forum polls:

Trinity-Spadina: Lib 52, NDP 34, Cons 12

One point of skepticism: I doubt that all "others" (incl. Green) would be polling at 2% total.

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Any doom on the NDP's part is mitigated by Adam Vaughan being a ten-ton elephant of a Liberal candidate to be running against.  They'll be looking more at reducing the provincial margin to whatever palpable degree...