Canadian by-elections, 2014

[RogueBeaver]

Thornhill and Niagara could be held as early as Feb. 13. Grits will nominate their Niagara candidate tomorrow.

[RogueBeaver]

Didn't the OLP run one of the former MPP's relatives against Horwath and get crushed regardless? Needless to say I hope both, or at least Thornhill, is painted bleu.

[RogueBeaver]

Brian Jean has resigned as MP for Fort McMurray-Athabasca. Said he wants to move on, but I'm not a fan of all these early quitters both federally and provincially.

[RogueBeaver]

Ontario provincials will be interesting. Federally, I'd love to see a vacancy (or more) in rural Quebec.

[RogueBeaver]

Wynne will call Thornhill and Niagara Falls for Feb. 13 today.

[RogueBeaver]

The Ontario writs have been dropped. In Niagara the Tories are running their ex-MPP, ditto for Grits in Thornhill.

[RogueBeaver]

Forum has some polls out: Tories lead 44-36 in Thornhill, 32-28-28 in Niagara. If past experience is any indicator, Tories in Thornhill and Dippers in Niagara? Though the latter would be embarrassing since it's Hudak's backyard.

[RogueBeaver]

Harper's popularity with the Jewish community is a Thornhill factor.

[RogueBeaver]

Harper's popularity with the Jewish community is a Thornhill factor.

About CPC and provincial politics, do CPC MPs are usually involving in PC provincial campaigns?

Harper endorsed Hudak last time and the 2 parties work closely together behind the scenes, but not publicly for fairly obvious reasons.

[RogueBeaver]

New Ontario polls from That Firm. Tories lead 47/37 in Thornhill, an increase of 3 from 3 weeks ago. In Niagara the NDP leads the Tories 38/36 because they're cannibalizing the Liberal vote while Tories haven't moved. Meanwhile Kinsella suggests a Grit bloodbath outside the GTA in a GE.

Question: does anyone think this Grit erosion might create an opening for Horwath to supplant them?

[RogueBeaver]

Momentum's with you guys in NF, that's what I pointed out. Of course Forum could be spectacularly wrong again.

[RogueBeaver]

Wynne hit Hudak on RTW and Horwath on the minimum wage.

[RogueBeaver]

Not in a GE context though, looking at Ipsos. What Wynne and Hudak will say is that at least they're standing for things which may be unpopular.

[RogueBeaver]

Given Forum's track record I wouldn't be surprised if one of those was badly off, but momentum seems to be with the respective parties in those ridings.

[RogueBeaver]

PCPO has a GOTV problem? Geez, maybe CPC should help our cousins build their own CIMS and volunteer army?

[RogueBeaver]

Is he any different from a standard Dipper? As for Shurman... I'd hope sour grapes jackassery would be tuned out.

[RogueBeaver]

Hmm? They showed the NDP surging in LW. I doubt Forum as a general rule, and riding polls more generally.

[RogueBeaver]

Assuming Forum holds tomorrow, who'll get more media crap: Wynne or Hudak?

[RogueBeaver]

NDP insiders expect another budget deal if the Tories win Niagara. I'm still skeptical Horwath pulls the trigger, regardless of what she says about transit taxes. So long as she can have her cake and eat it in public opinion...

[RogueBeaver]

GE dynamics could be rather different, needless to say. Niagara seems a repeat of LW where the Tories stall and the Grits crash. Here's a graph courtesy of UC's Paul Fairie, whom I follow on Twitter. Yet the OLP remains ahead in the polls, no one's touching their GTA redoubt. Meanwhile the opposition parties are neck-and-neck. IIRC Ipsos detailed who bleeds to whom last fall, forget the poll now.




Another Fairie graph, this one applying the by-election swing provincewide. 2011 federally, basically. Not that this'll happen (though I'd love to see the OLP in 3rd) but an interesting thought experiment.

[RogueBeaver]

Leaders' polling must echo Forum: Wynne and Hudak are in Thornhill, Horwath in Niagara.

[RogueBeaver]

Too early to tell, or is something up? It'd be hilarious if the Tories won Niagara, Grits Thornhill.

[RogueBeaver]

Still too early to tell? I'm not liking those trendlines.

[RogueBeaver]

Niagara is now single digit NDP lead.

[RogueBeaver]

Tories now ahead in Thornhill, NF still an 8-ish NDP lead.