Canadian by-elections, 2014

[lilTommy]

Also waiting on a by-election in Niagara Falls (provincial)

Anything else?

The media has picked up that the Liberals are dying in SWO; coincidence or not they moved their convention from London to Toronto...

"While PC and NDP officials insist that would not dramatically alter the case they make to voters there, signs to the contrary are already showing, including more criticism than usual by the Tories of the NDP. While it remains to be seen if New Democratic Leader Andrea Horwath will hold up to the scrutiny brought by good poll numbers, Tim Hudak’s party – which currently holds the majority of southwestern seats – has cause to be a little spooked by research suggesting the NDP is ahead in the region."
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/what-ontario-liberals-southwestern-slump-portends-for-a-coming-election/article16240248/

[lilTommy]

Thornhill and Niagara could be held as early as Feb. 13. Grits will nominate their Niagara candidate tomorrow.

Looks like all three candidates in Niagara Falls will be from Municipal politics (if they all win their nominations)
Gates (NDP) & Morocco (OLP) are both NF city Councillors (finished i think 4th and 6th out of 8 ) and Bart Maves is a Regional Councillor (former Harris MPP, so yikes, not sure if that will work out for him so much)

The OLP has the strongest candidate so far in Thornhill, Regional Councillor Racco, her husband was former MPP who was defeated by Shurman... lets keep it in the family right (also might be an all female fight if the NDP and Greens manage to nominate anyone, the NDP should, but if they don't, this for me leans for OLP win)

[lilTommy]

Didn't the OLP run one of the former MPP's relatives against Horwath and get crushed regardless? Needless to say I hope both, or at least Thornhill, is painted bleu.

At this point, NF is anyone's game really. When we have actual candidates, might be clearer but to me it might be another London West   Could go PC, but Maves would have Harris baggage and for your sake here's hoping the PCs have learned their lesson from LW & KW. The OLP is tanking in SWO; so it will be interesting to see where that vote goes. So far by-election history is siding with an NDP win.

Thornhill, Gosh, it was the only 905 PC win which makes me think Shurman himself was a big vote getter; the riding's history of going back and forth between the OLP and PCs with slim margins of victory makes me think Candidate might just be the deciding factor. The OLP brand is terrible but has stabilized, so to-close-to-call-leaning-OLP for me... even though you hope PC

[lilTommy]

I never understood why Jews have concentrated as a "belt" along Bathurst St.

I suppose the same reason the Chinese, Italians, Greek, Indian, etc in Toronto tend to congregate "Belt like" along a main street or streets. The Chinese along Spadina (ok, and Dundas and Broadview) Italians along College, Greeks along Danforth, Indians along Gerrard.

[lilTommy]

Why did the synagogues pop up on Bathurst St in particular?

this help: via Wiki
"From the early part of the twentieth century, many Jews lived around Bathurst Street south of Bloor Street east to Spadina Avenue (and particularly Kensington Market) and west to past Christie Pits. After World War II, as the community became more middle class, it moved north along Bathurst Street, with wealthier members of the community moving to Forest Hill. The poorer members moved to the area around Bathurst and St. Clair Avenue or Bathurst and Eglinton Avenue.[7]
The community continued to move north along Bathurst and today, much of the Jewish community resides along the street from north of St. Clair Avenue and, in higher concentrations just south of Lawrence Avenue to beyond the city limits at Steeles Avenue, and extending further until about Elgin Mills Road in Richmond Hill.[8] Many synagogues are located on Bathurst, as well as many other Jewish community institutions:
The northern stretch of Bathurst, north of Sheppard Avenue West, has become one of the centres of the Russian community in Toronto. Many Russian Jewish immigrants started to settle in the apartment buildings there (many are located around the Bathurst/Sheppard intersection, as well as a long stretch of Bathurst between Finch Avenue West and Steeles Avenue West),[9] starting from early 1970s in order to get easier access to services provided by the Jewish Immigrant Aid Society. Following the breakup of the Soviet Union, significant numbers of Russian immigrants to Canada settled there. Many are affiliated with the Jewish Russian Community Centre.[10] The electoral district of York Centre, which includes Bathurst from Wilson Ave. West to Steeles Ave. West, has the largest number of Russo-Canadian voters in Canada. Numerous Russian delicatessens, restaurants, and book and clothing stores have earned the neighbourhood the unofficial moniker Little Moscow.[11]"

[lilTommy]

The Ontario writs have been dropped. In Niagara the Tories are running their ex-MPP, ditto for Grits in Thornhill.

Actually, the Liberal candidate in Thornhill, Sandra Yeung Racco, is the wife of the former Liberal MPP Mario Racco.

... I already mentioned all that on page1 guys

[lilTommy]

Niagara Falls





Thornhill

The NDPs strength down in Fort Erie (the south end of the riding) makes sense as the candidate back in 2011 was the former mayor of the city. It will be interesting to see if those votes stay with the NDP; also how NF city will be split seeing that the Liberals and NDP are running (if Gates wins the NDP nod) city Councillors. The Tories should sweep/win big in the North in Niagara-on-the-lake. Look for a North South divide. The OLP did well in 11 to keep their urban/rural seats (Peterborough, NF, Brant) but this will be a test of that, a lot can be chalked to candidate, no Craitor will be interesting.

[lilTommy]

This might be Hudak "backyard" but it's also to some degree Horwath's; the party won over all of Hamilton, and held Niagara Centre without Kormos (although with an equally strong candidate). as Hatman mentioned the region has much more of an NDP history then say KW or London or even the other areas where the by-elections occurred last. In 1990 the NDP won every riding but St. Catharines; we also have to remember that the Niagara (except Niagara Centre or the old Welland-Thorold) tends to be a swing region, went Liberal in 87, NDP in 90 and PC in 95.

[lilTommy]

New Ontario polls from That Firm. Tories lead 47/37 in Thornhill, an increase of 3 from 3 weeks ago. In Niagara the NDP leads the Tories 38/36 because they're cannibalizing the Liberal vote while Tories haven't moved. Meanwhile Kinsella suggests a Grit bloodbath outside the GTA in a GE.

Question: does anyone think this Grit erosion might create an opening for Horwath to supplant them?

Polls should be looked at based on momentum, not necessarily their figures at that time. I say that given the NDP results in both LW and KW... they weren't leading in the polls (KW I believe that was the case) But they saw the momentum of growth particularly in LW.
In NF, the PCs are running a massive anti-NDP campaign, that's all their talking about. They are getting nothing but bad news about candidates bolting due to their policies, down playing said policies in their own campaign, but still managed to "stick" at 36%, i'd say that part Maves himself. But with those numbers and the NDP really only focusing on NF, it's going to be a messy fight (even the OLP are attacking the NDP mostly)

Rogue - To answer you; I'd say Yes, but it depends where. I don't see the NDP eroding the Liberal vote in Eastern Ontario, Hatman and other might have a better understanding of the East, Really only Ottawa Centre is plausible given history, demographics and fedMP (but with the Liberal is pretty darn popular i hear so...)
The Liberals are DEAD in the SW; it will be a dog fight between the NDP and the PCs, London NC might stay Liberal but that will be on Matthews popularity alone i feel; The North i see the Liberals losing their 4 seats finally to the NDP as well (all Urban seats). TO, the OLP is still strong here, i can see the NDP making a play for YSW and SRR and SSW (what they hold federally) but that's it, and that's being hopeful

[lilTommy]

New poll on Niagara Falls and Thornhill:
http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2014/02/12/ontario_byelections_appear_to_be_going_against_minority_liberals_poll_finds.html

NF
NDP 48%(+10!) PC 33%(-3) OLP 17%(-2)

Thornhill
PC 51%(+5) OLP 40%(+3) NPD 5%(ouch -1)

[lilTommy]

Given Forum's track record I wouldn't be surprised if one of those was badly off, but momentum seems to be with the respective parties in those ridings.

I'm sure that's true. I have a feeling NF will be closer then that but still an NDP win... Hudak is already complaining the NDP has too many "union" volunteers.

I'm still torn on Thornhill; The anti-Liberal vote is rallying around the PCs, but the "progressive" vote seems to be rallying around the Liberals, again I think Thornhill will be much closer and the OLP will be (should be!) throwing all they have as NF is basically a lost cause now.

[lilTommy]

Is he any different from a standard Dipper? As for Shurman... I'd hope sour grapes jackassery would be tuned out.

Nope, he was a Unifor Local President before winning a seat on council in 2010, so if anything he's more of a traditional unionist dipper.
PCs play to their base, and it's anti-organized labour. Also, this http://radicalwayne.tumblr.com/ has come out to counter the PCs RadicalWayne... and it's hilarious!

[lilTommy]

At the provincial level, Jews have been wayyyy more loyal to the Liberals than was the case federally in 2011. Just six months after the federal Tories won heavily Jewish ridings like Eglinton-Lawrence and York Centre - the Ontario Liberals easily held those ridings by wide margins and gave Shurman a bit of a run for his money in Thornhill.

If Hatman means "the Jews of Thornhill" I'd agree to some degree, but not for Jews generally.  Thornhill has become kind of a Tory stronghold and I think that's because the Orthodox Jews vote as a bloc and there are enough of them to have an overall impact on the riding.  The areas where Shurman crushed Farber weren't merely Jewish areas but very heavily Orthodox Jewish areas.  They viewed Farber as too progressive and were also still mad at the Liberals over school funding.

Demographically, the Jewish population of Thornhill skews more rightward (affluent, 905, religious) and lacks the small-"l" liberal element that is well represented in St. Paul's, and even, though to a lesser extent, Eglinton-Lawrence.  

I'm disagree with any of this; i just want to correct - 2011 PC 46% vs OLP 40% now that's not really "crushing" but it is a very solid win, and given the history of the riding (2007 it was  46/42 That was the voucher year, 2003 was 45/46 {OLP win} and in 1999 it was 48/47)... the geberal OLP vote has been declining and Thornhill Jews are becoming more like the rest of the York Region, in being more COnservative

[lilTommy]

Assuming Forum holds tomorrow, who'll get more media crap: Wynne or Hudak?

Wynne. Despite his hometown being in the riding, Hudak has nothing to lose in the race.

I don't know; At the get go Hudak/PCs were leading the polls in both ridings... As long as the PCs win Thornhill the media will be more harsh to Wynne, raving for Horwath and neutral on Hudak. Basically he will survive as leader, if he losses both... i could see a leadership revolt happeneing (already there is a ground swell of anger at Hudak's policies)

[lilTommy]

I was right that both NF and Thornhill would be closer then Forums second poll; oddly enough their fist poll was almost dead on, in NF they have NDP 38, PC 36 OLP 19 - that almost exact! 39/37/19 was the result.
Hatman - I think the PCs vicious smear campaign against Radical Wayne probably had an impact, unions are very polarizing its a love/hate thing, also Maves was a better candidate then the Tories had in either LW and KW, so i think that also had an impact. Just the fact that the riding leans more Conservative/PC meaning they have a deeper base helped as well. The loss though might bring a change to the PCs ironically named right-to-work policy, and that surely played a part since there vote stuck at mid-30's the entire campaign and the media was all over the in-fighting.

I did notice that Gates and Hatfield look eerily similar, both stocky mustached men... the Union-NDP breeding pool? LOL

[lilTommy]

Quick and dirty map, based on 224 of the 263 'ordinary' polls, from last night's by-election.

(No results available for 'gray' polls.)

WOW the NDP won and tied in polls in NOTL! that's a success in itself!

I don't think this surprises anyone; The NDP has supplanted the OLP in the city, OLP hung on to a good chunk of its vote in NOTL though, NDP grew it's support in Fort Erie which is great since the 2011 candidate was the former mayor and without him the potential to lose those votes were there; also nice to see the NDP winning a few rural polls both in the city in the south end. Why no data! camman! For quick and dirty looks great... the problem for the OLP is this could potentially be repeated in ridings like Brant, Peterborough, Chatham-Kent, Sarnia-Lambton ridings with urban-rural mixes but dominated by a medium sized city

[lilTommy]

Too early to start talking about Premier Horwath?

Yes, way too early. Niagara area isn't quite representative of Ontario. And Thornhill result was terrible.

Agreed, adding to that, the NDP concentrated is efforts in NF; just last from the summer... the NDP did really well when they are able to concentrate the resources (WT, LW) did terrible in ridings perceived to be two way OLP-PC races (EL OS{saved somewhat by a good candidate), and they remain competitive but third in no-traditional areas with strong candidates SG); Howath should not race out to an election yet. In  general election ridings will be on their own mostly, with a few targeted ridings getting some extra resources

[lilTommy]

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2014/02/14/tim_hudak_lashes_out_at_union_elite_after_byelections.html

"sounds" like Horwath isn't going to push for an election... and is using that against the other two leaders. Hudak also sounds more then bitter about the NF loss.

[lilTommy]

The next Ontario election is going to see a Lot of open seats:
http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2014/02/28/veteran_liberal_and_tory_mpps_calling_it_quits.html?utm_medium=facebook&utm_source=twitterfeed

Kitchener Centre - John Milloy OLP
Durham - John O'Toole PC
Newmarket-Aurora - Frank Klees PC
Sudbury - Rick Bartolucci OLP
Mississauga-Erindale - Harindar Takhar OLP
Kingston and the Islands - John Gerretsen OLP

[lilTommy]

There is going to be a provincial by-election in NFLD in Virginia Waters, Kathy Dunderdale's old seat. Some big names have already lined up:

http://ntv.ca/sheilagh-oleary-cathy-bennett-step-forward-for-virginia-waters-by-election/

Sheilagh O'Leary - former city Councillor and mayoral candidate is running for the NDP (big score but not unsurprising, Mulcair endorsed her run for mayor)
Cathy Bennett - Businesswoman and Liberal Leadership candidate

Two names dropped for the PCs - Dany Breen a city councillor and a "well-know sports figure" Gord Dunphy

[lilTommy]

Won't there be a General election in a year at any rate?

[lilTommy]

NDP won't win. But great candidate choice.

Without Dunderdale, can we say that for sure? The NDP got 30% in 2011... but they've performed really weak in recent polling due both strong liberal numbers and internal fighting. Given that the candidate is a huge coup, add a few points for a personal vote right there, i think it will be more competitive then we think.

[lilTommy]

Christine Innes, Former Liberal candidate in Trinity-Spadina told "your not welcome here" to run for the nomination in the up coming by-election

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/03/13/justin-trudeau-christine-innes-tony-ianno_n_4958068.html?utm_hp_ref=canada-politics

[lilTommy]

That's rather unfortunate. Doesn't Barry Weisleder live in Trinity-Spadina? He should've run. It would've been very amusing.

... Not funny
I was hoping that a women and someone from a visible community would step forward, I hate to see the white-male'ing of the caucus, but what can ya do. Cressy has a very good resume and is definitely from the social justice, activist side of the party.
I think the hoopla over Trudeau stepping in and back-tracking on his promise to an open nomination can only help the NDP. It will be interesting to see how the vote will pan without a Chow and Innes/Ianno battle.

[lilTommy]

Karygiannis is resigning Scarborough-Agincourt to run for TO council.

Good Riddance.  

Now Toronto City Council will be stuck with him *and* Doug Ford. Karygiannis a bully and there is no place in the future of the Liberal Party for people who operate like him

Wrong place for this I know, but... This means hes going up against (unless either of the Councillors is not running again) Mike Del Grande(ward 39) or Norm Kelly (40), both are conservatives but not fools like Ford or Mammoliti; I'd rather Kelly and Del Grande win then Karygiannis.