Canadian by-elections, 2014

[King of Kensington]

Has anyone done the 2011 federal result in Niagara Falls riding by municipality?

[King of Kensington]

The NDP seems to be headed toward taking about half of the Liberal vote in Niagara Falls and the Liberals are really evaporating in southwestern Ontario.  So far Andrea Horwath's "Not Toronto Not Tim Hudak" strategy seems to be working. 

[King of Kensington]

Looks like the "radical Wayne" campaign isn't working, and Peter Shurman's blasting of Hudak doesn't seem to have much impact.  But I guess we'll see tomorrow.

[King of Kensington]

Is he any different from a standard Dipper? As for Shurman... I'd hope sour grapes jackassery would be tuned out.

Maybe, though I don't think the lead in Thornhill has much to do with Hudak and Shurman did have personal popularity there.   It seems to have become a Tory stronghold both federally and provincially.

[King of Kensington]

At the provincial level, Jews have been wayyyy more loyal to the Liberals than was the case federally in 2011. Just six months after the federal Tories won heavily Jewish ridings like Eglinton-Lawrence and York Centre - the Ontario Liberals easily held those ridings by wide margins and gave Shurman a bit of a run for his money in Thornhill.

If Hatman means "the Jews of Thornhill" I'd agree to some degree, but not for Jews generally.  Thornhill has become kind of a Tory stronghold and I think that's because the Orthodox Jews vote as a bloc and there are enough of them to have an overall impact on the riding.  The areas where Shurman crushed Farber weren't merely Jewish areas but very heavily Orthodox Jewish areas.  They viewed Farber as too progressive and were also still mad at the Liberals over school funding.

Demographically, the Jewish population of Thornhill skews more rightward (affluent, 905, religious) and lacks the small-"l" liberal element that is well represented in St. Paul's, and even, though to a lesser extent, Eglinton-Lawrence.  

[King of Kensington]

I meant "crushed" in the heavily Orthodox polls straddling Bathurst St., not Thornhill riding as a whole.

The Orthodox/non-Orthodox split was also evident in Eglinton-Lawrence where the area around Bathurst and Lawrence went predictably Conservative but the Liberals won upper Forest Hill and Allenby and the Jewish seniors at Baycrest.  

I would guess that the Orthodox Jewish population is probably about 10% of the population in both ridings.  The difference of course is that the rest of the electorate are much less Conservative in Eg-Law than in York Region.  Thus in Thornhill, it's now hard to tip to the Liberals when you have a 10% Orthodox voting bloc while in Eg-Law it requires more of a "perfect storm" where the Conservatives get a higher share among Jews and do better in North Toronto etc.

[King of Kensington]

Ha, great question.

[King of Kensington]

2011 Federal Election Niagara Falls riding:

Niagara-on-the-Lake: Conservative 59.2%, NDP 16.1%, Liberal 17.8%
Niagara Falls:  Conservative 51.3%, NDP 24.5%, Liberal 19.8%
Fort Erie:  Conservative 53.1%, NDP 27.6%, Liberal 13.6%

Harper New Democrats? 

[King of Kensington]

Yeah if Hudak can't win in London West or Niagara Falls, how can he form a government?

[King of Kensington]

Well, maybe it's just a Thornhill phenomena, but the most Jewish part of the riding went 75% Tory. So....

Right...I'm not sure if you're expressing agreement or disagreement.

I think Steve Paikin's take on it is pretty apt: in Orthodox polls, “the Ontario PC Party got almost all the votes."

http://theagenda.tvo.org/blog/agenda-blogs/what-really-happened-thornhill

[King of Kensington]

Here's my obligatory blog post: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/02/provincial-by-elections-today-in-ontario.html

It also includes a breakdown of the 2011 Thornhill results by ward.

Nicely done.

[King of Kensington]

The problem with Thornhill is that what happens in Thornhill stays in Thornhill. 

[King of Kensington]

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2014/02/14/tim_hudak_lashes_out_at_union_elite_after_byelections.html

"sounds" like Horwath isn't going to push for an election... and is using that against the other two leaders. Hudak also sounds more then bitter about the NF loss.

Gee Tim, if you can't even with a "PC seat" how can you form a government?

[King of Kensington]

Yes, way too early. Niagara area isn't quite representative of Ontario. And Thornhill result was terrible.

It is a bit early, but Niagara Falls seems pretty representative of SW Ontario/industrial heartland seats.

The NDP didn't put any effort into Thornhill and it's a very wealthy suburban riding and one of the weakest ridings for the NDP in the province.

[King of Kensington]

It would be interesting to see Niagara Falls results broken down (as best possible) by the old town and township of Niagara, the old city of Niagara Falls, Stamford and Grantham townships etc.

[King of Kensington]

Trinity-Spadina should be a cakewalk for the NDP.

The real battle will be in 2015 when (in all likelihood) Joe Cressy and Chrystia Freeland face off against each other.

[King of Kensington]

Should the NDP be happy about Vaughan's candidacy?

No because they're likely to get their worst result since 1993.  Adam Vaughan is a big score for the Liberals.

It's an odd fit.  Until April 17 he was more popular with New Democrats than with Liberals.  Vaughan had endorsed lots of NDPers for office (Cathy Crowe, Kristyn Wong-Tam, Jonah Schein, Rosario Marchese and Peggy Nash's leadership bid) and his endorsement of Smitherman was a reluctant one to stop Ford.  His voting record is one of the most left-wing on council.  Despite his uptown Liberal roots he votes like a downtown New Democrat.

However to the general electorate he looks good, having been the most high profile opponent of Ford on council in the riding where Ford had his worst showing in 2010.  The old Tony Ianno constituency has evaporated and I think Christine Innes and her husband will be a minor nuisance that will have little impact on the result.  The Liberals who hate Vaughan (and I've met them)...will they really sit it out or do they want their only shot of winning?  People who are broadly progressive and soft NDPers will back Vaughan.  Joe Cressy will just get the hyper-partisan NDPers.  

It just bids terribly for the NDP that some apparatchik was acclaimed.  If they want to be a big tent "progressive" party they needed to reach out not keep it within the "extended family." And the narrative will be terrible: how can the NDP present themselves as the alternative to Harper when they lose to the Liberals in Trinity-Spadina?  Trinity-Spadina is also a "prestige" riding with a lot of academics and opinion leaders.

The NDP will have to come up with a clever "it was a vote for Adam Vaughan not for the Liberals" narrative when they get slaughtered in the by-election.

[King of Kensington]

Go through my posting history.  If you think I'm a "Liberal hack" then you're mistaken.

I live in Trinity-Spadina.  Vaughan is massively popular here.

[King of Kensington]

In fact, I feel betrayed by Vaughan and I've spoken to others who may need to start a support group.

But does it matter in the end?  No.  Snagging Vaughan was a brilliant move by the Liberals. 

[King of Kensington]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/vaughan-could-be-next-mp-of-torontos-trinity-spadina-poll/article18116120/#dashboard/follows/

No surprise.  Vaughan leads if he's the Liberal candidate, otherwise the NDP is ahead.

[King of Kensington]

Highly respected former mayor David Crombie will be at Vaughan's launch tomorrow.

Wouldn't surprise me at all if David Miller came out for Vaughan either.

[King of Kensington]

52-31. Good job, NDP. Let's pick some white guy no one has ever heard of to fill the shoes of Olivia Chow. Why weren't we courting Vaughan?

Agreed.  I think he could have totally been courted to run for them.  

[King of Kensington]

Though difference is, Crombie's history is as a Red Tory, while Miller's is NDP, so the optics are "safer" for the former...

Not in Trinity-Spadina!  There are clearly lots of "Adam Vaughan New Democrats" in the riding.

ETA: Misread your post.  Yes David Crombie can safely endorse Vaughan while Miller would get some flak from his old party.

[King of Kensington]

So you've heard second or third hand that most progressive councillors think that Vaughan is a dick? 

Good to know!

[King of Kensington]

BTW who are the dicks who carry NDP cards?  Have you "heard" about them as well?

You don't have to say who they are - I'm just want a confirmation of their existence.