Canadian by-elections, 2014

[Hatman 🍁]

Yay! They've finally been called!

Elections Manitoba sent me some poll maps, so I'll have to get started on them

[Hatman 🍁]

Also waiting on a by-election in Niagara Falls (provincial)

Anything else?

[Hatman 🍁]

d'oh

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah. Thornhill is all about the Jewish vote. If they go PC, you gotta win the non Jewish areas (west of Bathurst & East of Bayview) which vote similarly to the rest of the 905.

[Hatman 🍁]

Sorry, the Jewish areas are between Yonge and Dufferin. (Though there are 2 plurality Jewish census tracts east of Bayview). The Jewish areas went overwhelmingly PC in 2011: http://www.election-atlas.ca/ont/107/89.php?e=2011

[Hatman 🍁]

Thornhill religion map:

[Hatman 🍁]

Of note: 53% of the riding is between Yonge and Dufferin.

[Hatman 🍁]

Is the information available by dissemination area, for free?

[Hatman 🍁]

I never understood why Jews have concentrated as a "belt" along Bathurst St.

[Hatman 🍁]

Why did the synagogues pop up on Bathurst St in particular?

[Hatman 🍁]

Niagara Falls results by municipality:

Niagara-on-the-Lake
PC: 43.7%
Liberal: 41.6%
NDP: 12.2%
Grn: 1.7%
Oth: 0.8%

Niagara Falls
Lib: 41.3%
PC: 30.2%
NDP: 25.0%
Grn: 1.7%
Oth: 1.8%

Fort Erie
PC: 41.0%
NDP: 38.3%
Lib: 18.8%
Grn: 1.3%
Oth: 0.6%

In the Fort Erie community, (not the Town, but the smaller community within the town), the Tory candidate edged the NDP by 36 votes. The NDP did win the community of Crystal Beach, 323 votes to 214.

[Hatman 🍁]

28% with no candidate yet? Sweet!

[Hatman 🍁]

The poll is clearly great news for the NDP. They've made up larger ground in less winnable seats in Southwestern Ontario before. Even with a few days before the election. The only difference now is that the political climate in the province/country has altered, and the Liberal brand is more popular now.

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting fact, Tim Hudak actually represented part of the present day Niagara Falls riding before 1999 (Fort Erie, and the rural southern part of the City of Niagara Falls).

Also, the NDP won the riding in 1990. Rule of thumb for this Parliament's set of by-elections: if the NDP won the seat in 1990, it will win the by-election.

[Hatman 🍁]

Also, the NDP won the riding in 1990. Rule of thumb for this Parliament's set of by-elections: if the NDP won the seat in 1990, it will win the by-election.

I'd qualify that.  First re Kitchener-Waterloo: the NDP would have won within those boundaries in 1990; yet the fact remains that the actual predecessor seat was won by Liz Witmer--whose retirement spurred the NDP-steal byelection. 

And more to the point: all the 1990-era components of Scarborough-Guildwood went NDP that year--and the NDP still finished third, although much better than a lot expected.

But *absolutely* to the point: Etobicoke-Lakeshore's predecessor went Ruth Grier NDP by a landslide in 1990--and yet they lost their deposit in the byelection.

Wow, how soon I forget, eh?

[Hatman 🍁]

Manitoba provincial by-elections today.

Blog post: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/01/manitoba-provincial-by-elections-today.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like the Tories are winning in a cake walk in both ridings, as expected. Liberals #2 in both, NDP #3.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP #2 in Morris now, but well behind in 3rd in Arthur-Virden (surprising, I thought it would be the other way around).

Arthur-Virden
17/83

PC: 564
Lib: 187
NDP: 78
Grn: 37

[Hatman 🍁]

Morris
(20/68)

PC: 681
NDP: 124
Lib: 109
Ind: 40
Grn:21

[Hatman 🍁]

Turnout also low due to both races being foregone conclusions.

Comments

Morris: Surprised that the Tories lost ground here. Also surprised that the NDP hung on for 2nd. Based on history, I thought this was the most likely of the 2 ridings for the Liberals to finish second. To be fair, the Liberals had a weak candidate. Also lol @ the Greens.

Arthur-Virden: Surprised at the strength of the Liberals. Finishing 2nd is a big deal. Also, the Tories barely made any gains here. I guess in both ridings, there's a bit of a ceiling in terms of Tory support. Most of the shifting happening was NDP -> Liberals. However, much of the NDP -> shifting going on across the province is mostly concentrated in the Winnipeg suburbs.

[Hatman 🍁]

Also lol @ the Greens.

Am I missing something? Seems like a pretty good result for rural Manitoba.

Maybe, but they finished behind an independent.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP is only really making huge gains in SW Ontario (not sure why exactly it's there in particular). NF is sorta SW Ontario. It doesn't usually get lumped in there, as it's in the 905 and has is an L postal code area, but I'd say it's more similar to London or Kitchener than Missisissauga or Whitby.

As for the NDP's fortunes in Eastern Ontario? They're non existent. Only hope is Ottawa Centre, but Naqvi is way too popular to be unseated.

[Hatman 🍁]

Depends on what you classify as eastern Ontario. The NDP was quite competitive in Peterborough in the 2011 ON election and it's one of the most marginal Liberal seats. Kingston is another wild card since the NDP has a strong candidate and the longtime Liberal incumbent is retiring.

I can see Kingston and Peterborough flipping if the NDP is above 30% in the polls. Peterborough isn't eastern Ontario though It helps that they are both university ridings. Peterborough is a bit of a bellwether though, so it might take an NDP lead in the polls to flip it.

[Hatman 🍁]

Has anyone done the 2011 federal result in Niagara Falls riding by municipality?

I compiled it provincially, but didn't get around to doing it federally.

[Hatman 🍁]

I have no reason to doubt those numbers from FR. If anything, they've badly underestimated the NDP in recent provincial by-election polls. Thornhill could turn out to be closer based on their track record with over estimating the Tories, but I don't see the Jews going Liberal.