Canadian by-elections, 2014

[DC Al Fine]

In federal news, Macleod MP Ted Menzies will have to be replaced sometime this year. Menzies got a whopping 77.5% of the vote last time, so I imagine the Tories will hold on to this one.

[DC Al Fine]

Brian Jean has resigned as MP for Fort McMurray-Athabasca. Said he wants to move on, but I'm not a fan of all these early quitters both federally and provincially.

I'd be a bit more sympathetic if it was a minority government or if he got sick. But it's a majority government. It's not difficult to announce your retirement and start looking for jobs a year out from a set election date.

[DC Al Fine]

Also, we're going to have a pretty boring set of by-elections soon. A ridiculously safe Tory seat and... ANOTHER ridiculously safe Tory seat

[DC Al Fine]

Also lol @ the Greens.

Am I missing something? Seems like a pretty good result for rural Manitoba.

[DC Al Fine]

Plus we all hate Gritdom, right?

When instead we should be concerned about Hudak's coming reign of terror, alas.

Oh go turn on your oven

[DC Al Fine]

I never really understood why the Liberals had socially conservative MPs. (It's not like the Liberals have ever been a populist/communitarian party, so if you're conservative economically and socially, what are you doing in the Liberal Party) I guess having a bunch in Scarborough made some sense, due to the minorities there who voted Liberal. 

There are a lot of those people still walking the Earth who's voting habits were formed during the WASP/Non-WASP alignment. Ex: My late Catholic-born grandfather, was even more socially conservative than I am, but voted Liberal all his life. That vote stopped making sense around... 1968 maybe?

[DC Al Fine]

that could create interesting dynamic federally in Trinity-Spadina since the federal NDP has declared itself open to any form of cooperation with the Liberals (e.g. coalition, accord etc...) in order to defeat Harper - while the Liberals under Trudeau reject working with anyone and have stated that they have no inte

When have the Federal NDP said any such thing?

Yeah. I'm pretty sure they threw that out the window once they realised they could contend for the PM spot

[DC Al Fine]

4 federals are called for June 30. Not Whitby-Oshawa.

I wonder if the Tories are worried about losing Whitby-Oshawa and if that happened it could hurt Harper's leadership.  If he puts it off enough and loses there won't be time to dump him and choose a new leader so that may be the reason, although it could also be timing as he has more time on that one.

I don't think there's any danger of a coup right now.

[DC Al Fine]

Ivison said Grits told him they thought they'd have had a shot in FM had it not been a long weekend.

What's their reasoning: older Tory voters are more likely to show up despite the holiday weekend?

[DC Al Fine]

The Tories have been very successful in courting the Chinese vote in BC. They've had a harder time doing so in Ontario, but there has been some evidence that the Chinese vote is trending Tory. The provincial election was a good indicator of that. The Tories did better in the Chinese parts of Agincourt than in the White parts.

It makes sense I guess. Middle class Chinese people are the right wing equivalent to working class whites. i.e. People who should be voting for us but aren't. The Tories have turned down their cultural rhetoric in the past 10-15 years so the non-economic reasons against voting Tory have dissipated.

[DC Al Fine]

The Tories have been very successful in courting the Chinese vote in BC. They've had a harder time doing so in Ontario, but there has been some evidence that the Chinese vote is trending Tory. The provincial election was a good indicator of that. The Tories did better in the Chinese parts of Agincourt than in the White parts.

People who should be voting for us but aren't.

Thought I made my sarcasm clear enough, but obviously not... Yes I realize that economics is not the be all and end all.

[DC Al Fine]

Doubtless it was important in building up the party's credibility in the province, but you take things too far.

That really wasn't my intent at all. I was merely asking about the possibility of the Liberals breaking into the Conservative fortress that is Alberta. The 2008 NDP victory in Edmonton-Strathcona did not yield any further gains for the party in 2011 (other than solidifying that seat). All I said was that a Liberal win in Calgary Centre could have been a potential breakthrough for the party. I wouldn't even necessarily say the Liberals could do better than that, considering that Harper is leading the Conservative Party.

I ran the 308's most recent averages for Alberta (54.5-22.8-13.6-6.9) in my proportional swing projection model.

The Liberals got four seats, and the NDP got one*. Two of the Liberal seats were squeakers and there doesn't seem to be much more room for growth for them. I think it's safe to say that the Liberals will win a seat in Calgary and a seat in Edmonton, but anything more than a beachhead would require substantial gains in the polls.

*Potential Liberal pickups from most to least likely by my model.
1) Calgary Skyview
2) Edmonton Centre
3) Calgary Centre
4) Calgary Confederation
5) Calgary Forest Lawn
6) Edmonton Riverbend
7) Calgary Signal Hill

FTR: The best non Cgy/Edm Liberal result under my model is a 22% loss in Lethbridge

[DC Al Fine]

Judging from the polls, looks like a CAQ hold.

[DC Al Fine]

So um, there has been a resignation in New Brunswick already. Hasn't even been sworn in yet: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/saint-john-east-mla-elect-gary-keating-resigns-1.2798468

I'd rather he do it now than harm his health/relationships but... what did he think would happen when we won the nomination for a winnable seat

[DC Al Fine]

I know a lot of non-ideological people on the left want the Liberals and NDP to merge, but there are more similarities between Liberals and Tories than there are between Liberals and the NDP. Better for the Liberals and Alberta Party to merge.

Indeed.

Unite the left sentiments tend to have a strong "Stop Harper" tinge to them and ignore that the differences between Liberal and NDP cut quite deep; deeper than the the old Tory-Reform split.

Also, why does the Alberta Party even exist? I can't see who they're appealing too that the other parties don't have locked up.

[DC Al Fine]

Aside from the political and cultural differences, who's to say we have it wrong in Canada, whereas the US has it right? I would love it if the US had its own social democratic party.

But, I have to go back to my earlier point. The Liberals and Tories have a lot more in common than the Liberals and NDP. Look no further than the Toronto mayoral election. Liberals in Toronto had the choice between a conservative (John Tory) and a New Democrat (Olivia Chow) and overwhelmingly backed Tory.  A lot of that was to stop Ford, but remember, Chow had been leading at one point.

Similarly, we saw in the federal election, a lot of Liberals switching to the Conservatives to stop the NDP.

In a lot urban centres there are a lot of people who switch between the NDP and Liberals, but they pale in comparison between the Liberal-Conservative swing voters in the more populous suburbs.

Precisely. People that think a Liberal-NDP merger will work like a Tory-Alliance one are hugely ignorant of history. The Liberals and NDP have spent the last 50 (closer 80 if you count the CCF) working against each other. Compare that to the two right wing parties who were only split for 10 years or so and spent provincial campaigns on the same team.

[DC Al Fine]

Results will be posted here. Detailed stuff like poll-by-poll maps usually takes months

[DC Al Fine]

Good job, CBC. You really had to try with that one.

Frankly professionalism was the only thing preventing them from declaring a Tory hold when the writ was dropped.

[DC Al Fine]

Good job, CBC. You really had to try with that one.

Frankly professionalism was the only thing preventing them from declaring a Tory hold when the writ was dropped.

Why stop there? Why not call it as soon as it became vacant? Or after the last election? Or in perpetuity?

Reform 2.0

[DC Al Fine]

I think a lot of Conservatives in Alberta are upset with the Harper government and are staying home in droves with these by-elections. The Macleod by-election had low turnout too at 20%. 

Maybe out east, but in Alberta I'd attribute to not giving a f[inks]. Hell, I'd seriously debate getting off my butt to vote in a rural Alberta by-election

[DC Al Fine]

Humber East had the highest PC vote in the last election, so if that swing happened across the province, the Tories would be wiped out. It wouldn't be a Campbelling, it would be a McKennaning.

Well the Liberals are polling at Albertaesque levels in Newfoundland, so its a definite possibility

[DC Al Fine]

So... anyone have a quick explainer of how a would-be dynasty self-vaporized?

In no particular order

1) Stephen Harper
2) Nasty labour disputes
3) The party`s been coasting on Danny Williams`rep since 2007 or so.

[DC Al Fine]

Trudeaumania?

Yeah, can't forget that.

[DC Al Fine]

Are the PCs there going to distance themselves from Harper? Or even go ABC like Danny in 2008?

Yes, No.

[DC Al Fine]

Wow... I guess he figures he has a better chance of winning a by-election after this Liberal scandal than holding on to his seat in the federal election.

ETA: Holy f*** he switched parties???

So when's the last time something like this happened?