VA State Senate Special Elections

[Anna Komnene]

With Ralph Northam and Mark Herring set to swear in next month, Virginia will be having two special elections to replace them in the State Senate.  Since the State Senate is currently deadlocked, the specials could determine which party controls it and play a big roll in what the next VA administration will be like.  The 33rd District election is being considered the more competitive at the moment.  May's independent candidacy makes it interesting since he was a long time member of the House of Delegates before being ousted in a primary this year.

6th District (Previous held by Northam): January 7th
Lynwood Lewis (D)
Wayne Coleman (R)

33rd District (Previously held by Herring): January 21st
Jennifer Wexton (D)
John Whitbeck (R)
Joe May (I)

[LeBron]

Ouch, I didn't even consider how the AG race could hurt VA Democrats here. If Democrats lose even one of these, McAuliffe will be a lame-duck Governor for the next 2 years or possibly his whole Governorship. There would be full Republican control of both houses and no chance of compromise unless Dems. can maintain that narrow control of the Senate.

Do you know the PVI of each one by chance? From what it seems, the 6th leans D while the 33rd could really go either way.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Ouch, I didn't even consider how the AG race could hurt VA Democrats here. If Democrats lose even one of these, McAuliffe will be a lame-duck Governor for the next 2 years or possibly his whole Governorship. There would be full Republican control of both houses and no chance of compromise unless Dems. can maintain that narrow control of the Senate.

Do you know the PVI of each one by chance? From what it seems, the 6th leans D while the 33rd could really go either way.

Both of them should lean Democratic. Obama won 33rd with 59% of the vote and the 6th with 57% according to VPAP.

[windjammer]

Ouch, I didn't even consider how the AG race could hurt VA Democrats here. If Democrats lose even one of these, McAuliffe will be a lame-duck Governor for the next 2 years or possibly his whole Governorship. There would be full Republican control of both houses and no chance of compromise unless Dems. can maintain that narrow control of the Senate.

Do you know the PVI of each one by chance? From what it seems, the 6th leans D while the 33rd could really go either way.

PVI: D+6 for both

[IceSpear]

The GOP has such an overwhelming advantage in the HoD, does it even matter if the GOP narrowly wins the Senate as well?

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

The GOP has such an overwhelming advantage in the HoD, does it even matter if the GOP narrowly wins the Senate as well?

Yes, because if Dems control the Senate they know McAuliffe's agenda at the very least gets voted on in the Senate; if GOP controls it, they could refuse to vote on anything McAuliffe may want.

[IceSpear]

The GOP has such an overwhelming advantage in the HoD, does it even matter if the GOP narrowly wins the Senate as well?

Yes, because if Dems control the Senate they know McAuliffe's agenda at the very least gets voted on in the Senate; if GOP controls it, they could refuse to vote on anything McAuliffe may want.

So it would just be symbolic, which was my point.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

With all precincts reporting in SD-06, Lt. Gov-elect Ralph Northam's seat, Democrat Lynwood Davis leads by 22 votes... Buckle your seatbelts, we're heading to Recount City.

[LeBron]

It's being reported on Rachel Maddow's show right now and with 97% of precincts reporting, it is too close to call. The Democrat, Lynwood Lewis Jr., is leading with 10,197 votes and 50% of the vote to Republican Wayne Coleman who has 10,175 votes to his name with 49.9% of the vote. There are also 8 write-in votes.  

If Republicans win this seat or Herring's seat in two weeks, they will retain control of the State Senate and McAuliffe could be a lame-duck Governor.

[moderatevoter]

As of now, Lewis is leading by 22 (yes, I know) votes (with all precincts accounted for). I think canvassing happens tomorrow, and that could make a difference. With such a low margin, there is also bound to be another recount.

[ElectionsGuy]

Wow, another close call in Virginia. Dems probably luck out and survive though.

[LeBron]

I'm sure those 8 voters probably feel like crap knowing that screwing around and writing some name that stood no chance of winning could be the difference between whether Lewis or Coleman picks up the win now with a margin as narrow as this and intense circumstances as vital as this.

As for the 33rd, I'm predicting a Democratic hold there because of Joe May being in the race and therefore a split in the Republican moderate and Tea Party vote, but this current race could still go either way.

[henster]

Weather was bad here today some of the lowest temperatures in years schools/work delayed just because of how cold it was here this morning it was probably a big factor in the election because of turnout issues contributing to Lynwood's underwhelming performance.

[Skill and Chance]

Would be very ironic if SD-33 ends up being the easier one for Democrats.

[Gass3268]

I hate special elections...

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Lewis now leads by 10 with one precinct left to be recanvassed (Tangiers Island, the one with the possible anomaly in Coleman's favor) and 3 provisionals to be counted (presumed by the parties to be 2 Coleman, 1 Lewis).

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Here are precinct maps:
http://www.vpap.org/elections/live_results/jan_2014?race=S6&display=map

So, I'm just realizing now that due to redistricting I now live in this district.  Seriously, if I can't stay on top of this I don't know how normal people with a life are supposed to.  So it's nice that I now live in a competitive senate district instead of a VRA, but yeah ... would have been nice to have figured this out beforehand so I could have voted.     

[Supersonic]

Here are precinct maps:
http://www.vpap.org/elections/live_results/jan_2014?race=S6&display=map

So, I'm just realizing now that due to redistricting I now live in this district.  Seriously, if I can't stay on top of this I don't know how normal people with a life are supposed to.  So it's nice that I now live in a competitive senate district instead of a VRA, but yeah ... would have been nice to have figured this out beforehand so I could have voted.     

Who would you have hypothetically voted for shua?

[Skill and Chance]

Lewis now leads by 10 with one precinct left to be recanvassed (Tangiers Island, the one with the possible anomaly in Coleman's favor) and 3 provisionals to be counted (presumed by the parties to be 2 Coleman, 1 Lewis).

The oddly high turnout in Tangier could be fishermen/ferry workers who were home yesterday because of ice.  I wouldn't discount it off hand.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Here are precinct maps:
http://www.vpap.org/elections/live_results/jan_2014?race=S6&display=map

So, I'm just realizing now that due to redistricting I now live in this district.  Seriously, if I can't stay on top of this I don't know how normal people with a life are supposed to.  So it's nice that I now live in a competitive senate district instead of a VRA, but yeah ... would have been nice to have figured this out beforehand so I could have voted.     

Who would you have hypothetically voted for shua?

probably Coleman.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Here are precinct maps:


So, I'm just realizing now that due to redistricting I now live in this district.  Seriously, if I can't stay on top of this I don't know how normal people with a life are supposed to.  So it's nice that I now live in a competitive senate district instead of a VRA, but yeah ... would have been nice to have figured this out beforehand so I could have voted.     

Who would you have hypothetically voted for shua?

probably Coleman.

Good thing you didn't vote then

[Anna Komnene]

The VA SBE certified the result today with Lewis winning by 9 votes.    Coleman's campaign plans to ask for a recount.

Lynwood W. Lewis, Jr. (D)  10,201
Wayne Coleman (R) 10,192
Write-ins 8

[IceSpear]

Democrats really need to learn that presidential elections aren't the only elections that matter.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

The VA SBE certified the result today with Lewis winning by 9 votes.    Coleman's campaign plans to ask for a recount.

Lynwood W. Lewis, Jr. (D)  10,201
Wayne Coleman (R) 10,192
Write-ins 8

I swear to God if this race comes down to lizard people

[Landslide Lyndon]

Democrats really need to learn that presidential elections aren't the only elections that matter.

Yeah, their inability to turn out on special elections has reached an incomprehensible level. What the fyck are the local parties doing?