VA State Senate Special Elections

[Donerail]

Democrats really need to learn that presidential elections aren't the only elections that matter.

Yeah, their inability to turn out on special elections has reached an incomprehensible level. What the fyck are the local parties doing?

Has me worried for FL-13.

[DINGO Joe]

Democrats really need to learn that presidential elections aren't the only elections that matter.

Yeah, their inability to turn out on special elections has reached an incomprehensible level. What the fyck are the local parties doing?

FWIW, there was a house of Delegates special election the same day and the D had no trouble with that one, even though the Rs did pump some money into it.  Part of the problem in the Senate race was the candidate and the geography of the district, Northam was unique in that he had roots in both parts of the district.

[Gass3268]

Jennifer Wexton, who is the Democrat running to replace Mark Herring in VA SD-33, came out with this amazing anti-Tea Party/Pro-Choice ad. She obviously knows that she needs to mobilize her base in her districts with issues that they care about.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXu5d5-3G1w

Republicans are freaking out:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/va-gop-takes-offense-at-wextons-state-senate-campaign-ad/2014/01/09/3231e7fa-794c-11e3-8963-b4b654bcc9b2_story.html

[TX Conservative Dem]

What odds do y'all have on Democrats taking the Virginia State Senate based on the special elections?

[Flake]

What odds do y'all have on Democrats taking the Virginia State Senate based on the special elections?

They had half the seats, if the Democrats win 33 then they have a majority

[Anna Komnene]

It's been beautiful weather in the 33rd the past few days, but sure enough, it's supposed to snow tomorrow!

[Kevin]

It's been beautiful weather in the 33rd the past few days, but sure enough, it's supposed to snow tomorrow!

And not to mention very cold and icy.

Ether way it will probably be an extremely low turnout election. I would say with my observations(i live in the 33rd) that Wexton will probably win since she has been basically the only one getting her name out there.

Depending on who comes out though it's hard to say with certainty.  

[Skill and Chance]

Anyone want predict the margin?  In keeping with recent tradition, I say Wexton by 5... votes going into the recount!

[Flake]

Wexton by 150 votes

[free my dawg]

Wexton by 54.

[DINGO Joe]

Wexton wins easily.  And I say that looking at returns from my mobile

[Gass3268]

Yup, looks like it will all come down to SD-06 recount as to who controls the Senate.

[DINGO Joe]

Final margin was just about 3300 votes.

[badgate]

Great news.


She'll be a great pick for Warner's seat after he resigns and becomes Vice President in 2016.

[Flake]

[Skill and Chance]

I was right.  The district originally pegged as close ends up a blowout and the one originally pegged as a blowout ends up incredibly tight.  And now everything hinges on the recount in SD-06.

2015 is the next time the full VA senate is up.  As has been mentioned before, there is a Dem in a 67% Romney coal country district.  He is likely to either retire or be defeated.  That means Democrats would have to pick up a seat to maintain the 20-20 tie (assuming the other Dem survives the recount).  Plausible targets are Dick Black's SD-13, which went 51% Romney and also voted narrowly for Cuccinelli last year.  There is also SD-10 in the Richmond area, which is the best target on paper because it apparently voted for Obama twice and then for the entire 2013 Dem ticket.  But the R incumbent there probably isn't as odd as Dick Black.  They could also try to win back one of the 2 SDs they lost in 2011, but those don't look like prime territory for the Obama/McAuliffe coalition.

[Skill and Chance]

Great news.


She'll be a great pick for Warner's seat after he resigns and becomes Vice President in 2016.

More likely that Herring/Northam/Connolly would try for an open Senate seat.  Wexton would make a great 2016 candidate for VA-10 if R's hold it this year.

[badgate]

Great news.


She'll be a great pick for Warner's seat after he resigns and becomes Vice President in 2016.

More likely that Herring/Northam/Connolly would try for an open Senate seat.  Wexton would make a great 2016 candidate for VA-10 if R's hold it this year.

She'd have to get appointed, probably wouldn't win if there were an open special election.

[Gass3268]

I was right.  The district originally pegged as close ends up a blowout and the one originally pegged as a blowout ends up incredibly tight.  And now everything hinges on the recount in SD-06.

2015 is the next time the full VA senate is up.  As has been mentioned before, there is a Dem in a 67% Romney coal country district.  He is likely to either retire or be defeated.  That means Democrats would have to pick up a seat to maintain the 20-20 tie (assuming the other Dem survives the recount).  Plausible targets are Dick Black's SD-13, which went 51% Romney and also voted narrowly for Cuccinelli last year.  There is also SD-10 in the Richmond area, which is the best target on paper because it apparently voted for Obama twice and then for the entire 2013 Dem ticket.  But the R incumbent there probably isn't as odd as Dick Black.  They could also try to win back one of the 2 SDs they lost in 2011, but those don't look like prime territory for the Obama/McAuliffe coalition.

Yeah, I think its going to be difficult for the Dems to keep control after 2015. I actually think their best chance would be the Dem in the 67% Romney district, as crazy as that may sound. After that I would look to SD-10 before SD-13.

[Skill and Chance]

I was right.  The district originally pegged as close ends up a blowout and the one originally pegged as a blowout ends up incredibly tight.  And now everything hinges on the recount in SD-06.

2015 is the next time the full VA senate is up.  As has been mentioned before, there is a Dem in a 67% Romney coal country district.  He is likely to either retire or be defeated.  That means Democrats would have to pick up a seat to maintain the 20-20 tie (assuming the other Dem survives the recount).  Plausible targets are Dick Black's SD-13, which went 51% Romney and also voted narrowly for Cuccinelli last year.  There is also SD-10 in the Richmond area, which is the best target on paper because it apparently voted for Obama twice and then for the entire 2013 Dem ticket.  But the R incumbent there probably isn't as odd as Dick Black.  They could also try to win back one of the 2 SDs they lost in 2011, but those don't look like prime territory for the Obama/McAuliffe coalition.

Yeah, I think its going to be difficult for the Dems to keep control after 2015. I actually think their best chance would be the Dem in the 67% Romney district, as crazy as that may sound. After that I would look to SD-10 before SD-13.

Are you sure?  I would have agreed until SD-10 went more for McAuliffe than the state.  SD-13 might be higher profile though because of Dick Black running for VA-10 and likely being all over the news making a fool of himself.  He could offend enough business-flavored Romney voters.

If D's can get to 21 in 2019, they would be guaranteed to stop a GOP gerrymander next decade because the Senate isn't up again until 2023, a year after the congressional elections.

[Anna Komnene]

Just heard that the SD-06 recount is set for Monday.  I feel like the chances of big changes in an election like this are pretty low, but ya never know when the margin is so small.

[free my dawg]

Coleman has conceded. Democrats have officially gained the Senate.

[windjammer]

A big boost for medicaid expansion

[free my dawg]

A big boost for medicaid expansion

True. While the HoD won't do anything about it, the Senate can use it to energize the base for 2015.

Speaking of then, I hope we take out Black.

[Flake]

Coleman has conceded. Democrats have officially gained the Senate.