I was right. The district originally pegged as close ends up a blowout and the one originally pegged as a blowout ends up incredibly tight. And now everything hinges on the recount in SD-06.
2015 is the next time the full VA senate is up. As has been mentioned before, there is a Dem in a 67% Romney coal country district. He is likely to either retire or be defeated. That means Democrats would have to pick up a seat to maintain the 20-20 tie (assuming the other Dem survives the recount). Plausible targets are Dick Black's SD-13, which went 51% Romney and also voted narrowly for Cuccinelli last year. There is also SD-10 in the Richmond area, which is the best target on paper because it apparently voted for Obama twice and then for the entire 2013 Dem ticket. But the R incumbent there probably isn't as odd as Dick Black. They could also try to win back one of the 2 SDs they lost in 2011, but those don't look like prime territory for the Obama/McAuliffe coalition.
Yeah, I think its going to be difficult for the Dems to keep control after 2015. I actually think their best chance would be the Dem in the 67% Romney district, as crazy as that may sound. After that I would look to SD-10 before SD-13.
