VA State Senate Special Elections

[Skill and Chance]

Would be very ironic if SD-33 ends up being the easier one for Democrats.

[Skill and Chance]

Lewis now leads by 10 with one precinct left to be recanvassed (Tangiers Island, the one with the possible anomaly in Coleman's favor) and 3 provisionals to be counted (presumed by the parties to be 2 Coleman, 1 Lewis).

The oddly high turnout in Tangier could be fishermen/ferry workers who were home yesterday because of ice.  I wouldn't discount it off hand.

[Skill and Chance]

Anyone want predict the margin?  In keeping with recent tradition, I say Wexton by 5... votes going into the recount!

[Skill and Chance]

I was right.  The district originally pegged as close ends up a blowout and the one originally pegged as a blowout ends up incredibly tight.  And now everything hinges on the recount in SD-06.

2015 is the next time the full VA senate is up.  As has been mentioned before, there is a Dem in a 67% Romney coal country district.  He is likely to either retire or be defeated.  That means Democrats would have to pick up a seat to maintain the 20-20 tie (assuming the other Dem survives the recount).  Plausible targets are Dick Black's SD-13, which went 51% Romney and also voted narrowly for Cuccinelli last year.  There is also SD-10 in the Richmond area, which is the best target on paper because it apparently voted for Obama twice and then for the entire 2013 Dem ticket.  But the R incumbent there probably isn't as odd as Dick Black.  They could also try to win back one of the 2 SDs they lost in 2011, but those don't look like prime territory for the Obama/McAuliffe coalition.

[Skill and Chance]

Great news.


She'll be a great pick for Warner's seat after he resigns and becomes Vice President in 2016.

More likely that Herring/Northam/Connolly would try for an open Senate seat.  Wexton would make a great 2016 candidate for VA-10 if R's hold it this year.

[Skill and Chance]

I was right.  The district originally pegged as close ends up a blowout and the one originally pegged as a blowout ends up incredibly tight.  And now everything hinges on the recount in SD-06.

2015 is the next time the full VA senate is up.  As has been mentioned before, there is a Dem in a 67% Romney coal country district.  He is likely to either retire or be defeated.  That means Democrats would have to pick up a seat to maintain the 20-20 tie (assuming the other Dem survives the recount).  Plausible targets are Dick Black's SD-13, which went 51% Romney and also voted narrowly for Cuccinelli last year.  There is also SD-10 in the Richmond area, which is the best target on paper because it apparently voted for Obama twice and then for the entire 2013 Dem ticket.  But the R incumbent there probably isn't as odd as Dick Black.  They could also try to win back one of the 2 SDs they lost in 2011, but those don't look like prime territory for the Obama/McAuliffe coalition.

Yeah, I think its going to be difficult for the Dems to keep control after 2015. I actually think their best chance would be the Dem in the 67% Romney district, as crazy as that may sound. After that I would look to SD-10 before SD-13.

Are you sure?  I would have agreed until SD-10 went more for McAuliffe than the state.  SD-13 might be higher profile though because of Dick Black running for VA-10 and likely being all over the news making a fool of himself.  He could offend enough business-flavored Romney voters.

If D's can get to 21 in 2019, they would be guaranteed to stop a GOP gerrymander next decade because the Senate isn't up again until 2023, a year after the congressional elections.

[Skill and Chance]

A big boost for medicaid expansion

True. While the HoD won't do anything about it, the Senate can use it to energize the base for 2015.

Speaking of then, I hope we take out Black.

They will likely need to beat either Black in SD-13 or Watkins in Richmond's SD-10 to keep the tie. They have an elderly member in a 67% Romney seat in coal country.  All of the other D-held districts are at least likely D and trending their way.

The House would require a year more democratic than 2013 to be interesting, but there are 13 seats where the Republican won with 55% or less last year.

[Skill and Chance]

If Democrats want to hold the chamber, having Northam run for reelection as LG rather than for Governor in 2017 would also be highly beneficial.  It's probably a fair reading of the senate map to say that a 20-20 tie is the expected outcome for most of the decade (R's trade the Richmond Obama district for the coal country Romney district).

[Skill and Chance]

To be honest honest, except one who is a Romney district (by far), all democratic seats have been won by double digits. So they will have always 19 seats (except special election), the problem is to get 2 additional seats.

Well, they need to either hold 21 seats in 2019 or win governor in both 2017 and 2021 to avoid being gerrymandered into oblivion in congress again.  That's what this is really about, because R control in the HoD is locked in until at least 2021 barring a 60/40 Democratic year statewide.

[Skill and Chance]

The Democrats would dominate the state legislature if their turnout wasn't so pathetic. There's plenty of Republicans holding 60%+ Obama seats in NOVA.

If they won all of the Obama 2012 seats, it would be down to 52R/48D!  If they just won all of the McAuliffe 2013 seats, they would pick up 12 and it would be 56R/44D.  The problem goes beyond the R gerrymander, though.  There are a lot of "reverse Blue Dogs" in the VA suburbs.  Local Dems can lag far behind Obama numbers.  That McAuliffe did so well is a good sign, though.