VA State Senate Special Elections

[windjammer]

Ouch, I didn't even consider how the AG race could hurt VA Democrats here. If Democrats lose even one of these, McAuliffe will be a lame-duck Governor for the next 2 years or possibly his whole Governorship. There would be full Republican control of both houses and no chance of compromise unless Dems. can maintain that narrow control of the Senate.

Do you know the PVI of each one by chance? From what it seems, the 6th leans D while the 33rd could really go either way.

PVI: D+6 for both

[windjammer]

A big boost for medicaid expansion

[windjammer]

To be honest honest, except one who is a Romney district (by far), all democratic seats have been won by double digits. So they will have always 19 seats (except special election), the problem is to get 2 additional seats.

[windjammer]

If Democrats want to hold the chamber, having Northam run for reelection as LG rather than for Governor in 2017 would also be highly beneficial.  It's probably a fair reading of the senate map to say that a 20-20 tie is the expected outcome for most of the decade (R's trade the Richmond Obama district for the coal country Romney district).

The best candidate for governor would be of course Mark Warner. But if not, the Attorney General Mark Herring would be a good candidate!

[windjammer]

Well, I guess the democratic state senator representing the heavily Romney district will be running.

[windjammer]

Well, one seat more, one seat less, it doesn't change anything about the house?

[windjammer]

And Mcauliffe's mother has died...