2012 Election Held Right Now (late Dec 2013)

[JRP1994]

Let's say that President Obama, nursing a 42% average approval rating, faces off against Mitt Romney in a re-match held today. Does Obama lose? How close is the election? What states does Romney manage to flip?

[NHI]

Romney: 309 (50.9%)

Obama: 229 (47.8%)

[Tayya]

It depends on whether all voters from 2012 are transported instantly back to the voting booth or if there's another campaign before. If there is no campaign, Romney probably wins - if there is a campaign, he might not be so lucky.

[Dancing with Myself]

It depends on whether all voters from 2012 are transported instantly back to the voting booth or if there's another campaign before. If there is no campaign, Romney probably wins - if there is a campaign, he might not be so lucky.

Exactamundo.

Romney didn't run the best campaign last year, besides that first debate Obama outdid him in most of everything. If he followed the same strategy I could see him winning 1 more state at best, but if he ran a campaign full of both attacks on Barry for his failures and outlined his positions/offered hope, he could win in this scenario.

[NewYorkExpress]

If Romney runs the same campaign... It's like Bush 2000... But if his campagain improves he (Romney) wins in a landslide.

[ElectionsGuy]

He narrowly wins 275-263 with ~49% of the vote, to Obama's ~48%.

[Mister Mets]

I'll go with a slight variation: a 2012 election in which Hurricane Sandy occurred in 2011, and all the bad news stories of this year occurred (the Snowden leaks, the Obamacare website debacle, the gun control backlash) in 2012.

That would probably have been enough to get six point swings in Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Hampshire and Iowa.

Wisconsin and Nevada would probably be the equivalent of Florida, the states that don't decide the election but take the longest to call.

[LeBron]

President Barack Obama (D-IL)/VP Joe Biden (D-DE) - 272 EVs
Fmr. Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA)/Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI) - 266 EVs

President Obama's approval wouldn't matter as much as the low turnout would. The off-off year would put Ohio and Florida into the Romney column with Wisconsin, Virginia, New Hampshire, Iowa and Colorado being the main battlegrounds. Ryan still can't carry his home state though and Obama narrowly wins a second term.

[free my dawg]

He narrowly wins 275-263 with ~49% of the vote, to Obama's ~48%.