2014 state legislature (general) elections

[Frodo]

Arkansas House:

59R: 41D

Arkansas Senate:

22R: 13D

Kentucky House:

55R: 45D

Kentucky Senate:

25R: 13D

West Virginia House:

63R: 37D

West Virginia Senate:

19D: 15R

Lord help America.

And just think what would happen to the Democratic Party in Kentucky if (and when) Republicans gain control of the governor's mansion in 2015, and (at a minimum) holds on to that and the legislature in 2019/20, just in time for the 2020 census and redistricting cycle...

[Bandit3 the Worker]

And just think what would happen to the Democratic Party in Kentucky if (and when) Republicans gain control of the governor's mansion in 2015, and (at a minimum) holds on to that and the legislature in 2019, just in time for the 2020 census and redistricting cycle...

The governorship is almost useless in Kentucky anyway. The legislature can override a veto with a simple majority.

On the other hand, I see less support for the GOP on the ground than I have at any time I can remember. I just talked to some folks on Friday who said they're voting straight ticket Democratic. This is a county that was McConnell +25 in 2008, but now I see Grimes signs all over the place, and only one McConnell sign. Grimes has huge turnout for her rallies all over the state, while McConnell has to pay people just to get one-tenth the turnout.

For what it's worth, the state rep for my district is a Democrat running unopposed but has had some real challengers before. Our state senator is a Republican who is retiring, but the very Republican local newspaper just endorsed a Democrat for this seat. The county was Romney +23 in 2012 and Bush +34 in 1988.

How can a Republican electoral trend square with less actual GOP support among the general public? This isn't just Kentucky but other states too (even big ones).

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Also, the Campbell County Democratic Party has 808 fans on Facebook. The Campbell County Republican Party has only 149. Both these Facebook pages have been around for a while.

[Progressive]

I wouldn't even consider NYS Senate in play anymore btw

[Vosem]

It's called selection bias, Bandit. People are likely to speak to those who are similar to themselves, so people you talk to are more likely to be Democrats, since you're a Democrat. Being a high schooler, I talk to high schoolers frequently but to retirees very infrequently. But you can be confident that Kentucky is speeding towards the Republican Party, and has been since the '90s.

[Frodo]

And just think what would happen to the Democratic Party in Kentucky if (and when) Republicans gain control of the governor's mansion in 2015, and (at a minimum) holds on to that and the legislature in 2019, just in time for the 2020 census and redistricting cycle...

The governorship is almost useless in Kentucky anyway. The legislature can override a veto with a simple majority.

On the other hand, I see less support for the GOP on the ground than I have at any time I can remember. I just talked to some folks on Friday who said they're voting straight ticket Democratic. This is a county that was McConnell +25 in 2008, but now I see Grimes signs all over the place, and only one McConnell sign. Grimes has huge turnout for her rallies all over the state, while McConnell has to pay people just to get one-tenth the turnout.

For what it's worth, the state rep for my district is a Democrat running unopposed but has had some real challengers before. Our state senator is a Republican who is retiring, but the very Republican local newspaper just endorsed a Democrat for this seat. The county was Romney +23 in 2012 and Bush +34 in 1988.

How can a Republican electoral trend square with less actual GOP support among the general public? This isn't just Kentucky but other states too (even big ones).

Going by the state legislature, where are most Democratic-held seats concentrated, besides the cities?  Eastern Kentucky?  

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Going by the state legislature, where are most Democratic-held seats concentrated, besides the cities?  Eastern Kentucky?  

If anywhere, I'd say eastern Kentucky. But a lot of the Democrats running there are unopposed this time.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

It's called selection bias, Bandit.

The amount of campaign signs I'm seeing or the number of Facebook fans each party's page has isn't selection bias. I had to travel through the north end of Fort Thomas just over a week ago, an area Romney won with over 70%. There were Grimes signs everywhere.

There's a small business nearby that has a prominent Grimes sign with Grimes's picture on it. That's not selection bias. That's the business I see each day, whether I "select" it or not.

[Frodo]

Going by the state legislature, where are most Democratic-held seats concentrated, besides the cities?  Eastern Kentucky?  

If anywhere, I'd say eastern Kentucky. But a lot of the Democrats running there are unopposed this time.

Right.  Eastern Kentucky (besides being your home) is where the coal mines are concentrated -and that by extension means that is where the mining unions have their greatest influence.  

And Republicans are strongest in the central part of the state, with growing strength in western Kentucky, which -as it happens- is where they are looking to make gains in the legislature.
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Vosem is right, BTW.  If I were to make predictions based on where I live and who I talk to (oblivious to the rest of the state), I would wonder why Democrats aren't dominating the Virginia General Assembly...

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The Republicans are strongest in parts of northern and western Kentucky, and other rural areas. But they already have most of the seats there.

I think the GOP already has every seat in Kenton and Boone counties - except the seat in Covington, where the Democrat is unopposed.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Vosem is right, BTW.  If I were to make predictions based on where I live and who I talk to (oblivious to the rest of the state), I would wonder why Democrats aren't dominating the Virginia General Assembly...

Also, Campbell County is much more Republican than the state average - except at the presidential level, but this isn't a presidential year.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The GOP may actually be ruined at the county level this time, but I don't know, since there's no polls. One of their candidates for Campbell County Commissioner is a Tea Party member who filed a frivolous lawsuit to try to shut down the public library, of all things.

[rbt48]

Going by the state legislature, where are most Democratic-held seats concentrated, besides the cities?  Eastern Kentucky?  

If anywhere, I'd say eastern Kentucky. But a lot of the Democrats running there are unopposed this time.

Right.  Eastern Kentucky (besides being your home) is where the coal mines are concentrated -and that by extension means that is where the mining unions have their greatest influence.  

And Republicans are strongest in the central part of the state, with growing strength in western Kentucky, which -as it happens- is where they are looking to make gains in the legislature.
-----------

Vosem is right, BTW.  If I were to make predictions based on where I live and who I talk to (oblivious to the rest of the state), I would wonder why Democrats aren't dominating the Virginia General Assembly...

Well, traditionally, eastern KY was the most Republican part of the state.  Back to the Civil War, the absence of slavery in eastern KY made that part of the start the most pro-Union.  After the war until the Great Depression, eastern KY was reliably Republican.  The depression made the major coal mining areas flip to the Democrats, notably Harlan County.  But the east was where Republicans got most of their support, along with scattered counties right up along the Ohio River.  Check out Jackson County which often has voted 90% R since the end of the Civil War to today.

Starting with the special election to replace Rep Natcher, around 1994, western KY began to flip to the Republicans and the trend continues.  Except for Louisville, Lexington and Covington, the state has become by-in-large a Republican bastion.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Starting with the special election to replace Rep Natcher, around 1994, western KY began to flip to the Republicans and the trend continues.  Except for Louisville, Lexington and Covington, the state has become by-in-large a Republican bastion.

I'd say Louisville, Lexington, and Frankfort are the Democratic giants today. Boone County is the Republican giant.

Covington, Newport, Bellevue, and Dayton are all heavily Democratic, but the corrupt Republican suburban machine usually outvotes them in those counties.

[Frodo]

Post state legislative election results here. 

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Post state legislative election results here. 

Democrats hold Kentucky House - probably 53-47.

[backtored]

GOP likely to take both houses if CO state legislature.

[jaichind]

I think GOP retake NY state senate 32-31.  This could change as more votes comes in.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Incidentally, the West Virginia House somehow fell to the GOP by probably 62-38.

This should make Kentuckians all the more thankful that the Democrats control the Kentucky House.

[Frodo]

Incidentally, the West Virginia House somehow fell to the GOP by probably 62-38.

This should make Kentuckians all the more thankful that the Democrats control the Kentucky House.

Where are you getting these election results?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Incidentally, the West Virginia House somehow fell to the GOP by probably 62-38.

This should make Kentuckians all the more thankful that the Democrats control the Kentucky House.

Where are you getting these election results?

Daily Kos.

[Frodo]

Incidentally, the West Virginia House somehow fell to the GOP by probably 62-38.

This should make Kentuckians all the more thankful that the Democrats control the Kentucky House.

Where are you getting these election results?

Daily Kos.

Thanks.

It appears that the West Virginia Senate is now tied. 

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Thanks.

It appears that the West Virginia Senate is now tied. 

That is sad.

West Virginia is the first state to defeat its own purpose for existing.

[greenforest32]

Incidentally, the West Virginia House somehow fell to the GOP by probably 62-38.

This should make Kentuckians all the more thankful that the Democrats control the Kentucky House.

Where are you getting these election results?

NCSL should have the results soon; they mapped the 2010 and 2012 outcome pretty good. It's hard to find the right page at the moment though. I think it's one of these two but the results aren't there yet:

http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/statevote-2014-elections.aspx

http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/statevote-2014-interactive-map-before-election.aspx

[user12345]

Im hearing that the Minnesota House might have gone to the Republicans.