2014 state legislature (general) elections

[Vega]

I'm pretty sure that in 2014, the Democrats in Pennsylvania will win back the House and possibly the Senate.
 

[free my dawg]

More endorsements!

Former GOP congressman Bill Zeliff endorses Mike Cryans (D) in the EC-1 race. I'd rate it Leans D for now.

[greenforest32]

http://www.buffalonews.com/city-region/politics/as-another-democrat-defects-to-coalition-gop-prospects-brighten-in-state-senate-20140226

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[windjammer]

Thank you Cuomo for having signed the Republican gerrymander state senate plan, you will always be remembered as an awful moron,  probably a bit a corrupt bastard, and a corporate tool.

[greenforest32]

http://wvpublic.org/post/delegate-switches-parties-run-state-senate

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

http://wvpublic.org/post/delegate-switches-parties-run-state-senate

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

What a disgrace.

[windjammer]

Do you like the WV democratic party Bandit?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Do you like the WV democratic party Bandit?

Not particularly, but I like the Republican Party much less.

[greenforest32]

http://wvmetronews.com/2014/05/13/do-republicans-have-a-realistic-chance-to-take-the-house/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[greenforest32]

The following look like houses that could plausibly flip, just based on the closeness in composition and the number of seats up for election:

Oregon House 33-26 D
Oregon Senate 16-14 D

Oh yeah this was interesting too. One of the state newspapers here actually published a neat table/chart for Oregon's legislative seats that shows every senate and house districts' results for the 2012 Presidential election:

http://gov.oregonlive.com/election/2014/primary/maps/houserate/
http://gov.oregonlive.com/election/2014/primary/maps/senaterate/

It'd be nice to have that kind of data for every state.

[publicunofficial]

Something interesting is that Hawaii Republicans are in position to take a seat in the Senate.


SD-23, currently occupied by State Sen. Clayton Hee (D), consists of the northern shore of Oahu. It's a remarkably conservative district by Hawaii standards, even Obama only won it with 58%, the only Senate seat he won with less than 60% (Hirono won it 52-47 over Lingle). Hee himself only won it by a little under 1,000 votes in 2012.


Earlier this year, State Rep. Richard Fale (R), best known for being one of the most vocal opponents of marriage equality, announced he would run against Hee in 2014. Hee then did the courageous thing an announced he would primary Lt. Gov Shan Tsutsui instead of running for re-election.

As such the Hawaii State Senate looks like it will soon go from 24-1 D to 23-2 D, the Hawaii equivalent of an R wave.


Funnily enough the D candidate for SD-23 will be Gil Riviere, a former State Rep. who was a Republican until Fale primaried him out.

[Frodo]

Anyone want to make any predictions (or updates) now that we are a month away from election day? 

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Anyone want to make any predictions (or updates) now that we are a month away from election day? 

Kentucky House: 56-44 D.

[Vega]

Something interesting is that Hawaii Republicans are in position to take a seat in the Senate.


SD-23, currently occupied by State Sen. Clayton Hee (D), consists of the northern shore of Oahu. It's a remarkably conservative district by Hawaii standards, even Obama only won it with 58%, the only Senate seat he won with less than 60% (Hirono won it 52-47 over Lingle). Hee himself only won it by a little under 1,000 votes in 2012.


Earlier this year, State Rep. Richard Fale (R), best known for being one of the most vocal opponents of marriage equality, announced he would run against Hee in 2014. Hee then did the courageous thing an announced he would primary Lt. Gov Shan Tsutsui instead of running for re-election.

As such the Hawaii State Senate looks like it will soon go from 24-1 D to 23-2 D, the Hawaii equivalent of an R wave.


Funnily enough the D candidate for SD-23 will be Gil Riviere, a former State Rep. who was a Republican until Fale primaried him out.

Riviere will probably squeak it out by a point or two, but he'd be the biggest DINO in the Hawaii State Senate for sure. I'd rather just have Fale win.

[Frodo]

Last chance for predictions before election day..... 

[jaichind]

Prediction for NY state senate.  The Independent Democratic Caucus has agreed to end its leadership coalition with minority Republicans in the state Senate back in the summer of 2014.  But this was take affect after the elections.  So all the Democrats have to do to keep control is to keep all its seats, including those in the Independent Democratic Caucus. 

My prediction is that they will fail and the GOP will retake control of the NY state senate 32-31.

If this were take place then it will deal a blow to Mayor Bill de Blasio of NYC who had hoped a Democratic majority in the NY State Senate would advance his agenda in his complex battle with Cuomo.  The real estate board has close ties to Cuomo has declined to help his own party win control of the Senate mainly because of conflict between real estate board and de Blasio.

[Kevinstat]

Maine Senate: 20-15 D (D+1, R n/c, I/U*-1)
Maine House: 90-57-3 D (currently 88-57-4 with 2 vacancies (1 left by a deceased D and 1 by a resigned R who moved out of the district, both after the end of the last legislative session), so counting the vacancies as currently belonging to the party that last held them, my prediction is D+2, R-1, I/U-1)

*Independent/Unenrolled

(There haven't been any Greens (technically Green Independents; the Unenrolled candidate for Governor in 1998 who regained ballot access for the Greens couldn't list her political designation as simply "Green" or "Green Party" as the Greens were, at the time she filed for office, engaged in an ultimately unsuccessful suit against the removal of its official ballot status two years before/ she chose "Green Independent" which has been the party's official name ever since) in the Legislature since John Eder was unseated in 2002, although one of the Independent/Unenrolled Legislators had run as a Green in the past before he was elected as an Independent.  I think that guy will win comfortably but no actual Greens will come close.)

[rbt48]

Anyone want to make any predictions (or updates) now that we are a month away from election day? 

Kentucky House: 56-44 D.

Kentucky House:  51R - 49D.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Anyone want to make any predictions (or updates) now that we are a month away from election day? 

Kentucky House: 56-44 D.

Kentucky House:  51R - 49D.

And you base this on...?

[greenforest32]

Anyone want to make any predictions (or updates) now that we are a month away from election day?  

I don't think we'll see that many flips in control. Even in the 2012 elections, only 8 states had switches in control compared to 2010. It'll probably be even less this year. I think the most likely one is Republicans winning the West Virginia state house. Past that and the same in the Kentucky state house, there's not many. If we see anything else, it will probably be:

* Nevada state senate flipping to Republicans (basing on the early voting numbers?)
* Iowa state senate flipping to Republicans? I have no idea about the background but turnout is low and Branstad will have a big margin of victory; both things working against Democrats' 1 seat-majority here.
* Maine legislature? - Republicans did unexpectedly win both chambers in 2010.

Is the IDC caucus in the NY state senate just going to disappear after November even though only 1 or 2 of them have chances of losing their seats this year? Doubtful.

Do any of the Washington posters have an idea as to what will happen in the state senate? Reading over Wikipedia, it looks like Democrats had a 26-23 majority until 2 of their members caucused with Republicans forming a 24D-23R+2 majority and then Republicans won a D-held senate seat in a special election bringing it to 23D-24R+2. Are those 2 DINOs and the aforementioned Republican in that special election seat likely to win reelection? Top-two basically got rid of the ability to primary them.

[jaichind]

This guy on Monkey Cage

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/10/31/republicans-forecast-to-win-5-state-senates-and-9-state-houses/

is predicting a large number of GOP victories at the state legislative level.

Data being here

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/files/2014/10/klarner_chamber_forecasts.pdf

According to this, the closest races will be NY State Senate (makes sense as that will be close),  Nevada State House, and Oregon State House.

[Hifly]

He's predicting that the Nevada State Senate won't change, but the State House will fall to the GOP???

[Frodo]

This guy on Monkey Cage

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/10/31/republicans-forecast-to-win-5-state-senates-and-9-state-houses/

is predicting a large number of GOP victories at the state legislative level.

Data being here

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/files/2014/10/klarner_chamber_forecasts.pdf

According to this, the closest races will be NY State Senate (makes sense as that will be close),  Nevada State House, and Oregon State House.

Interesting.  So for the states that I am primarily interested in, this is likely going to be the approximate breakdown after the election:

Arkansas House:

59R: 41D

Arkansas Senate:

22R: 13D

Kentucky House:

55R: 45D

Kentucky Senate:

25R: 13D

West Virginia House:

63R: 37D

West Virginia Senate:

19D: 15R
--------------------

This guy uses percentages, not actual seats, so it is only easy to translate if the state chamber is question has 100 seats.   

[Frodo]

And it doesn't look like Democrats can make good on their losses in North Carolina, apparently. 

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Arkansas House:

59R: 41D

Arkansas Senate:

22R: 13D

Kentucky House:

55R: 45D

Kentucky Senate:

25R: 13D

West Virginia House:

63R: 37D

West Virginia Senate:

19D: 15R

Lord help America.