Maps of generic democrats and republicans winning by 5 points

[ElectionsGuy]

Republicans:

Democrats:

With shades as well. Both are 332-206 victories. The democratic victory is very similar to Obama's 4 point win. You can make your own maps if you want and judge mine on whether you think its accurate or not.

[ElectionsGuy]

Your maps look pretty good overall, although I might flip North Carolina and maybe Missouri to the Democrats and New Mexico to the Republicans.

In both of those scenarios, NM and NC are both >40%, so don't get me wrong, they're both toss-ups and can go either way at that point. Missouri however is probably more right-wing than many people think and has trended much to the right recently, so I think republicans would win it in either scenario. I mean, even Obama in 2008 lost it when he won by 7 points and campaigned hard in the state.

[ElectionsGuy]

Republicans:

Same map as you for the Democrats, but NC could go either way.

I can't see the Republican Party getting a 332 electoral vote win with demographic changes and the result of the Obama coalition. Minnesota's also very inelastic, with no Republican statewide candidate getting over 50% in the past twenty years. Michigan has a significant black population in areas like Flint and Detroit, and the black vote is monolithic, so I don't see a Republican winning there. Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Virginia would be the closest states.

I like you, but please, please do not be one of these people who thinks the national GOP is done for. Your map there really doesn't represent anything but liberal denial. I mean, states just can't reject the GOP because of demographic shifts and the fact that their inelastic. There's got to be a better reason other than that the fact that the GOP just can't realistically win there. To me, this looks like a 2 point win.

Also, CT would go >60% Democratic in a 5 point Democratic win.  Obama did everything possible to alienate CT and he still got 58% in a 3.9 point win.

Yeah, it should. Sorry about that. But New Jersey (which was also 58%) I will leave >50% due to Obama's over performance there in 2012.

Republicans: It depends on which they improve on more: whites or Hispanics.

Democrats: Obviously this is easier to guess at given Obama's recent victory

I think that's a great map for indicating toss-ups, but I think Nevada would be Lean R. But it could be a toss-up if the GOP keeps alienating Hispanics. (which, I won't be surprised if they keep doing)

[ElectionsGuy]

Republicans:

Same map as you for the Democrats, but NC could go either way.

I can't see the Republican Party getting a 332 electoral vote win with demographic changes and the result of the Obama coalition. Minnesota's also very inelastic, with no Republican statewide candidate getting over 50% in the past twenty years. Michigan has a significant black population in areas like Flint and Detroit, and the black vote is monolithic, so I don't see a Republican winning there. Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Virginia would be the closest states.

I like you, but please, please do not be one of these people who thinks the national GOP is done for. Your map there really doesn't represent anything but liberal denial. I mean, states just can't reject the GOP because of demographic shifts and the fact that their inelastic. There's got to be a better reason other than that the fact that the GOP just can't realistically win there. To me, this looks like a 2 point win.

The GOP is not done, and it won't be, likely not in my lifetime. Right now, it is much harder for the Republicans to win a national election because of the alienation of hispanics (Nevada and New Mexico would be blue) and I don't see Minnesota voting Republican for a long time. It was the only state in 1984 that Mondale won, and in a landslide 18% victory by Reagan, I think this state will continue to keep to its Democratic roots, but I may be wrong, and the Republican Party wins more white votes, and in that case, it could flip. Michigan and Pennsylvania might also flip for the Republican Party, but personally, the Republican Party has their work cut out for them in a national election. But they are not done.

I agree with the underlined, but this a hypothetical scenario, which means it doesn't have to be realistic as of the current situation, but realistic with the hypothetical situation (5 point win). The GOP would probably win PA and NH by a few points for a 5 point win. And, for Minnesota, the 1984 argument really doesn't work as its trended significantly to the right since then and Mondale had a huge home state advantage anyway. So, while republicans do have to work on their image and electability, that doesn't just stop them from winning certain states in hypothetical margins of victory.