What are the odds there won't be a female on the Democratic ticket in 2016?

[Meeker]

I would say pretty well close to zero.

[Flake]

About 25%.

[Thomas D]

17.5%

[IceSpear]

5%. On the off chance the nominee is a male, he'll almost certainly select a female running mate.

[Blue3]

1%

[Mister Mets]

Pretty high.

Hillary's a strong frontrunner.

If Hillary decides not to run, the party eager to nominate the first major-party female candidate for President has a few other choices available with Gilibrand and Klobuchar.

And Elizabeth Warren remains the strongest potential Anti-Hillary.

It would probably be a conservative estimate that the Democrats have an 80% chance of nominating a woman at the top of the ticket.

It's possible that some guy will win. Joe Biden may coast on name recognition and resume. Brian Schweitzer has appeal in Iowa and New Hampshire. Deval Patrick comes from a state next to New Hampshire, and might get support among African Americans. Martin O'Malley wants a new promotion to executive office.

That guy will still have to win a divisive primary against a prominent woman. So, odds are good he'll pick one of several qualified women to be his running mate.

So it'd end up being something like 7 percent (20% chance of a male nominee X 35% chance a male nominee would pick a male running mate.)

[NewYorkExpress]

10% (That ten percent being someone other than Hillary winning the nomination + Klochubar/Warren/Gillibrand expressing any interest in the Vice-Presidency)

[eric82oslo]

I'd say 0.1% and that's probably a high watermark. So less than 1 in a 1000 chance.

Emily's List will make sure there will be a female, at least at the VP slot.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Kirsten Gillibrand makes for a pretty effective Veep for any male Dem, so I'd say less than 5%.

[morgieb]

Very, very small. If Hillary doesn't run, one would expect Gillibrand or Klobuchar (just to name two) to become our Veep nominee and more pressure on them to be our Presidential nominee.

[MATTROSE94]

Probaby minimal. Even if Hillary Clinton does not run, a Female Democratic Senator or Congresswoman such as Kirsten Gillibrand, Claire McCaskill, Elizabeth Warren, Tulsi Gabbard or Amy Klobuchar would make a fantastic running-mate for whoever the Democrats nominate.