Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins

[MaxQue]

A CROP poll for Quebec federal.

Liberals 38, NDP 32, Bloc 13(!), Conservatives 12.

http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201408/20/01-4793348-sondage-crop-le-bloc-quebecois-marginalise.php

[RogueBeaver]

Tied among Francophones. Too bad we don't get a regional breakdown. Provincially, better news: PLQ 41, CAQ 27, PQ 18 (!!!). I wonder if that holds when they select a permanent leader. 1970/3 in reverse if it did.

[RogueBeaver]

MacKay takes the Ice Bucket Challenge. IIRC Casey and Mulcair are the only other MPs who've done it. Trudeau donated.

[RogueBeaver]

Brian Storseth, Tory MP for Westlock-St. Paul, will retire next year.

[Njall]

Considering Liberals are surging in Alberta, what do Duncan's chances in Strathcona look like? Will the left-wing vote gravitate to her like it did in 2011, or could she be unseated? (By Liberals or Conservatives)?

I'd say that her chances are still pretty good.  Some of her vote from last election will undoubtably drift over to the Liberals, but Edmonton Strathcona is still a very NDP-friendly area.  The NDP won the provincial riding of Edmonton-Strathcona (which sits in the centre of the federal riding) with more than 60% of the vote in 2012, and they also won numerous polls in the ridings of Edmonton-Gold Bar and Edmonton-Riverview, both of which are partially or wholly contained within the federal riding of Edmonton Strathcona.

[RogueBeaver]

BREAKING: Bellavance is quitting the BQ, will retire next year.

Ipsos-federal: 38 (+5), 31 (-2), 24 (-).

Battleground BC.

[RogueBeaver]

Braid on the dynasty's ridiculously absurd "We're awful, but vote for us because only we can fix our own awfulness" contest.

[Njall]

Prentice has released his leadership campaign's donor list. As of today, he has raised 1.8 million dollars.

[RogueBeaver]

Dynastic self-parody: no voter list, and Lukaszuk copied Redford on illegitimate plane use.

[RogueBeaver]

Ivison on whether Harper fatigue produces a fifth Chretien/Martin term.

[RogueBeaver]

CRA-PEI: 48/28/16.

CRA-NL: 58/26/15.
CRA-NS: 63/20/14.

[DC Al Fine]

CRA-PEI: 48/28/16.

CRA-NL: 58/26/15.
CRA-NS: 63/20/14.

NS NDP @ 14?!?!?!

[RogueBeaver]

Mulcair will roll out a bunch of policy planks this sitting, including national daycare and minimum wage.

[Njall]

A new Alberta provincial poll from Leger shows some small change; PC and WRP up, LIB and NDP down.

Breakdowns (decided voters):

Province-wide: (change from last Leger poll)
Wildrose: 33% (+2)
PC: 29% (+3)
Liberal: 18% (-2)
NDP: 16% (-3)

Edmonton:
NDP: 27%
Wildrose: 24%
PC: 22%
Liberal: 20%

Calgary:
Wildrose: 33%
PC: 31%
Liberal: 22%
NDP: 9%

Rural:
Wildrose: 41%
PC: 33%
Liberal: 11%
NDP: 9%


Note: All Rural values, and Liberal and NDP values in Calgary, are estimated from the graphic in the article; I can't find them stated in writing elsewhere.

[RogueBeaver]

Ivison reports from Tory HQ: Budget will be loaded with goodies, Election prep will consume this sitting. Internal polling suggests the only region with growth potential is here in QC... Quebec City to be precise. Cannon returning to politics isn't new, though the idea of Soudas running for a nomination seems implausible. Backroomers stay where they belong, as Kinsella, Topp or the late Tom Kent can attest.

Mulroney: it may be time for a change next year, though he still supports Harper. Also said he'd call a royal commission into MMIW and feels Harper should be more active environmentally.

[RogueBeaver]

Great Oliver profile in Maclean's, great Hebert column on next year.

[RogueBeaver]

Prentice should be crowned PC leader in about 90 minutes.

Wells interviews Mulcair.

[RogueBeaver]

Prentice: 17952, McIver 2742, Lukaszuk 2681. Now The Anointed One must find a seat...

[Hatman 🍁]

CRA-PEI: 48/28/16.

CRA-NL: 58/26/15.
CRA-NS: 63/20/14.

Wow, the NDP is the lowest in Nova Scotia out of all four Atlantic provinces? Insanity (and highest in PEI) Has hell frozen over?

Hopefully the Liberal honeymoon in Nova Scotia ends soon.

[DC Al Fine]

In NS news Penny Boudreau, who strangled her daughter to keep her boyfriend got 20 to life.

Especially heinous crimes call for the noose, but this will do I suppose.

[MaxQue]

In NS news Penny Boudreau, who strangled her daughter to keep her boyfriend got 20 to life.

Especially heinous crimes call for the noose, but this will do I suppose.

That's a news from 2009.

[DC Al Fine]

In NS news Penny Boudreau, who strangled her daughter to keep her boyfriend got 20 to life.

Especially heinous crimes call for the noose, but this will do I suppose.

That's a news from 2009.

...wow can't believe I missed that

[RogueBeaver]

Hill Times on Ontario's new seats.

[RogueBeaver]

Goldring is retiring next year.

[RogueBeaver]

One of the Franklin expedition ships has been found.