Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins

[andrew_c]

Liberal results under AV would be about a 5% boost on top of what they get now.  It's the easiest path to government for them.

[Boston Bread]

Liberal results under AV would be about a 5% boost on top of what they get now.  It's the easiest path to government for them.

According to Grenier, the NDP would get second seat-wise under a preferential ballot system, even more than under MPP, with current polling because Bloc voters preference them over Liberals = automatic orange crush in QC and in CPC-NDP fights liberals preference NDP over conservative. So most of all CPC would get screwed over at least in the short term.

[Hatman 🍁]

Conservatives would get screwed, but outside of Quebec it would hurt the NDP as well. We saw that in the last federal election just as many Liberal voters swung Tory as they did to the NDP.

AV would strictly benefit the Liberals, and would force to the Tories to moderate themselves in order to be competitive.

[RogueBeaver]

Leslie was nominated tonight, but Bertschi crashed the party and it got fairly ugly. Not quite Iggy '05 ugly. As I've said before, Trudeau should just appoint his star candidates and spare everyone the finksing charade.

[Hatman 🍁]

I see the Citizen is still referring to the riding by its old name.

[DC Al Fine]

I wonder what the hold up is for the Tories in Halifax.

The Liberals have nominated all four of their candidates and the NDP have 3/4 nominated (all except my riding). The Tories haven't nominated anyone yet. We're almost certainly running the guy we ran last time, since no one else is interested that I know of.

[Hatman 🍁]

Maybe because the Tories have no chance at any Halifax seats?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I wonder what the hold up is for the Tories in Halifax.

The Liberals have nominated all four of their candidates and the NDP have 3/4 nominated (all except my riding). The Tories haven't nominated anyone yet. We're almost certainly running the guy we ran last time, since no one else is interested that I know of.

How are nominations handled? Does every district party association meet and vote on a certain candidate or does the federal party select each candidate?

[RogueBeaver]

Usually the former. Party leader can override the riding association by appointing (usually done for star candidates parachuted in), or vetoing a candidate, a party committee known as the "green-light committee" does candidate vetting. Their decisions can of course be overridden by the leader, so in practice they reflect HQ's preferences.

[Hatman 🍁]

Except for rare occasions, the establishment candidate always wins these things. Nomination races are usually shams. I admit that the Tories are probably the most democratic with their nominations.

[RogueBeaver]

Mulroney supports abolishing supply management. Hear hear.

[RogueBeaver]

Breaking: Our (QC) ex-LG Lise Thibault has pled guilty on fraud and abuse of trust.

[DC Al Fine]

The quarterly Atlantic Canada poll is out

Newfoundland & Labrador
Lib: 60% (+2)
PC: 29% (+3)
NDP: 10% (-5) 

Nova Scotia
Lib: 64% (+1)
PC: 18% (-2)
NDP: 15% (+1)

PEI
Lib: 50% (+2)
PC: 23% (-5)
NDP: 15% (-1)
Green: 11% (+4)

New Brunswick
Lib: 52% (+4)
PC: 23% (-6)
NDP: 14% (-3)
Green: 9% (+5)


Takeaways:
1) NB Liberals are on their honeymoon after gaining office in September
2) David Coon's election has given the Greens more exposure
3) Holy crap the NS Liberals are popular

[Hatman 🍁]

Guess that increase in Liberal support is everywhere outside of Saint John East

[RogueBeaver]

Harper confirms what we already knew: no new resource regulations.

Poilievre may have some more Elections Act amendments planned.

Harper partially disowns veterans charter.

Another controversial Trudeau appointment, this time in BC.

[Citizen Hats]

What did robert ghiz do to become so unpopular?

[RogueBeaver]

Being ahead 2-1 is unpopular? Geez, what's your definition of popular.

Bellegarde is the new National Chief.


The Hill finally has a harassment policy.

[RogueBeaver]

Great Hebert column on the leaders' future.

[RogueBeaver]

Leger federal and provincial poll. 38/32/19/6 federally, 34/29/17/16 here. Provincially: 34/26/26 PLQ, most of their economic plan approved for now.

[RogueBeaver]

Mini-shuffle: O'Toole replaces Fantino, Leitch also may move.

[Lincoln Republican]

Question for Hatman and RogueBeaver or anyone else who wishes to comment

How many of the current crop of NDP Members of Parliament from Quebec will survive the next election in your estimation?

[RogueBeaver]

Honestly depends. I'd say 30-35 right now. Rural ridings remain NDP.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Will Mulcair's stance on the gun register hurt him amongst rural voters though?

[RogueBeaver]

In a word, no.

[DC Al Fine]

Question for Hatman and RogueBeaver or anyone else who wishes to comment

How many of the current crop of NDP Members of Parliament from Quebec will survive the next election in your estimation?

Roughly 30 are safe due to their only relevant opposition (the Bloc Quebecois) being in even worse shape than they are. These are mostly in rural Quebec and parts of Montreal.

10ish are lost causes. These are mostly in Montreal and will be picked up by the Liberals.

The remaining ridings will depend on vote splits. The Liberals will win a few ridings in rural Quebec, the Tories might be able to snag a seat or two around Quebec City, but the NDP should hold a few of these.

I expect the Bloc Quebecois & Forces et Democratie to not win any seats.