Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins
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  Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins
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Author Topic: Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins  (Read 159546 times)
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1400 on: March 17, 2015, 11:41:45 AM »

I don't disagree, just a bit surprised considering how long ago all that stuff was. I'm all for substantive charisma, but for the foreseeable future we're stuck with either/or.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1401 on: March 17, 2015, 12:56:29 PM »

And MacKay was the last, pre-merger, PC leader. I suspect that warrant inclusion by itself.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1402 on: March 17, 2015, 03:21:45 PM »

Harper has extended Johnston's term another 2 years. Fantastic news.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1403 on: March 17, 2015, 06:12:29 PM »

Draft of the new Quebec electoral map.

http://lacarte.electionsquebec.qc.ca/en/

Main change is adding two ridings around St-Jérome (Les Plaines and Prévost) while deleting two ridings (St-Maurice in Mauricie and merging Mont-Royal and Outremont together to create Mont-Royal--Outremont, with domino effects on D'Arcy-McGee and Notre-Dame-de-Grâce).

Changes are very slight in other regions, if existing at all. Only one slight change in Quebec City...
Only 36 ridings are changing, 89 don't change at all.
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #1404 on: March 17, 2015, 09:11:24 PM »

It seems odd that one specific area of Montreal would reduce from 4 seats to 3 with no domino effect in the rest of the city; surely population shifts aren't that concentrated.

Were these seats underpopulated due to some historical idea that Outremont and Mount Royal should each get their own seat?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1405 on: March 17, 2015, 09:11:47 PM »

Good riddance: Andrews and Pacetti will not be readmitted to caucus after the internal investigation found more complaints from other women. Pacetti will retire, Andrews get thumped as an Indie.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1406 on: March 17, 2015, 09:35:59 PM »

It seems odd that one specific area of Montreal would reduce from 4 seats to 3 with no domino effect in the rest of the city; surely population shifts aren't that concentrated.

Were these seats underpopulated due to some historical idea that Outremont and Mount Royal should each get their own seat?

Well, Montreal is growing slower than the province, so their seat entitlement went down one, which is new. Those seats were underpopulated (as was D'Arcy-McGee), but not enough to remove one seat unless you decide to remove one seat on the island. And both Outremont and Mont-Royal were the nameplace + part of Côte-des-Neiges.

Outremont was at -18.3%, Mont-Royal at -9.1%, D'Arcy-McGee at -13.9% and Notre-Dame-de-Grâce at -16.0%. Also, Mercier, which will receive the Plateau parts of current Outremont is at -17.7%.

Westmount wasn't better, at -17.6%. If Montreal loses another seat in the future, it will be in the East (Hochelaga-Maisonneuve -13.7%, LaFontaine -13.5%, Pointe-aux-Trembles -15.3%, Sainte-Marie--Saint-Jacques -11.7% and Viau -13.7%). But current borders make sense, so they won't be changed until the seat entitlement for Montreal changes or than one is getting too close of 25%. Why change what isn't broken?
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #1407 on: March 17, 2015, 09:39:45 PM »

It seems odd that one specific area of Montreal would reduce from 4 seats to 3 with no domino effect in the rest of the city; surely population shifts aren't that concentrated.

Were these seats underpopulated due to some historical idea that Outremont and Mount Royal should each get their own seat?

Well, Montreal is growing slower than the province, so their seat entitlement went down one, which is new. Those seats were underpopulated (as was D'Arcy-McGee), but not enough to remove one seat unless you decide to remove one seat on the island. And both Outremont and Mont-Royal were the nameplace + part of Côte-des-Neiges.

Outremont was at -18.3%, Mont-Royal at -9.1%, D'Arcy-McGee at -13.9% and Notre-Dame-de-Grâce at -16.0%. Also, Mercier, which will receive the Plateau parts of current Outremont is at -17.7%.

Westmount wasn't better, at -17.6%. If Montreal loses another seat in the future, it will be in the East (Hochelaga-Maisonneuve -13.7%, LaFontaine -13.5%, Pointe-aux-Trembles -15.3%, Sainte-Marie--Saint-Jacques -11.7% and Viau -13.7%). But current borders make sense, so they won't be changed until the seat entitlement for Montreal changes or than one is getting too close of 25%. Why change what isn't broken?

OK, thanks. I suppose it makes sense if they're willing to keep a bunch of seats in the -10 to -15 range.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1408 on: March 17, 2015, 09:47:36 PM »

It seems odd that one specific area of Montreal would reduce from 4 seats to 3 with no domino effect in the rest of the city; surely population shifts aren't that concentrated.

Were these seats underpopulated due to some historical idea that Outremont and Mount Royal should each get their own seat?

Well, Montreal is growing slower than the province, so their seat entitlement went down one, which is new. Those seats were underpopulated (as was D'Arcy-McGee), but not enough to remove one seat unless you decide to remove one seat on the island. And both Outremont and Mont-Royal were the nameplace + part of Côte-des-Neiges.

Outremont was at -18.3%, Mont-Royal at -9.1%, D'Arcy-McGee at -13.9% and Notre-Dame-de-Grâce at -16.0%. Also, Mercier, which will receive the Plateau parts of current Outremont is at -17.7%.

Westmount wasn't better, at -17.6%. If Montreal loses another seat in the future, it will be in the East (Hochelaga-Maisonneuve -13.7%, LaFontaine -13.5%, Pointe-aux-Trembles -15.3%, Sainte-Marie--Saint-Jacques -11.7% and Viau -13.7%). But current borders make sense, so they won't be changed until the seat entitlement for Montreal changes or than one is getting too close of 25%. Why change what isn't broken?

OK, thanks. I suppose it makes sense if they're willing to keep a bunch of seats in the -10 to -15 range.

Well, it's Montreal. At every redistricting, provincial or federal, there is huge opposition to change anything. I think in 2004 federal, didn't all Bloc and Liberal MPs of Montreal Island asked together than there would be no change on the Island? Or I'm confusin with another provincial redistricting?
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #1409 on: March 17, 2015, 10:23:04 PM »

Threshold is 25% of the quota?

Max, you should've probably just started a new thread on the other board for this Smiley

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MaxQue
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« Reply #1410 on: March 18, 2015, 01:20:23 AM »

Threshold is 25% of the quota?

Max, you should've probably just started a new thread on the other board for this Smiley



I plan to, but I wanted to write a detailed summary of changes first, which make take sometimes and I was wondering if we should instead do a thread for all provincial redistricting.
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« Reply #1411 on: March 18, 2015, 07:07:14 AM »

I don't think redistricting happens enough to warrant one massive thread for all provinces.

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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1412 on: March 18, 2015, 07:57:27 PM »

I moved this month. My new provincial riding is Bedford. Still in Halifax West federally.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1413 on: March 19, 2015, 07:59:56 AM »

PKP apes Parizeau.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1414 on: March 20, 2015, 03:26:01 PM »

CROP-La Presse Quebec poll:

PLQ 29%
CAQ 27%
PQ 26%
QS 16%

I suspect it would cause a minority government.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #1415 on: March 20, 2015, 03:35:19 PM »

Wow QS!
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #1416 on: March 20, 2015, 04:00:51 PM »

An election on those CROP numbers could result in a PQ minority despite being third in PV if their vote is still as efficient as before. What a mess that would be. Maybe CAQ prop up the Liberals in such a scenario.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1417 on: March 20, 2015, 07:42:29 PM »

Redford resurfaced for a Globe interview. As clueless and arrogant as ever, nothing was her fault.

Premier approval ratings.
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Citizen Hats
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« Reply #1418 on: March 20, 2015, 09:08:24 PM »


I love her claim to be a 'polarizing figure'

One has to have supporters in order to be polarizing
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #1419 on: March 20, 2015, 09:11:53 PM »

CROP-La Presse Quebec poll:

PLQ 29%
CAQ 27%
PQ 26%
QS 16%

I suspect it would cause a minority government.

2007 all over again, except with the added fun of a strong QS.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1420 on: March 25, 2015, 07:46:46 PM »

Bell Media president banned its medias of showing CRTC (Canadian FCC) president footing and to quote the CRTC decision about forcing every cable distributor to allow customers to pick channels they want without having to pick packages.

CTV editorial board decided to ignore the decision after a few hours.

Yet, it's very creepy than some wealthy executive tries to influence information that way. Yay free market!
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #1421 on: March 26, 2015, 05:56:09 PM »

A strange poll on Alberta's provincial voting intentions:
http://1abvote.ca/poll-prentices-table-chat-pc-voting-intentions/

26% PC
23% NDP
21% Wildrose
20% Liberal
9% Alberta

Does the pollster have any credibility here? It doesn't seem realistic for the NDP to have a chance of winning... it should be an easy PC win, no?

It would be great news if this poll was in any way accurate. Not just because the centre/left can have a chance, but a four-way race would be a well-needed shake-up in Albertan politics.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #1422 on: March 26, 2015, 09:14:10 PM »

hahaha wut?
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #1423 on: March 26, 2015, 09:16:12 PM »

Ahh, read their rather suspect methodology.
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Njall
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« Reply #1424 on: March 26, 2015, 11:16:20 PM »
« Edited: March 26, 2015, 11:21:42 PM by Fmr. Assemblyman Njall »

A strange poll on Alberta's provincial voting intentions:
http://1abvote.ca/poll-prentices-table-chat-pc-voting-intentions/

26% PC
23% NDP
21% Wildrose
20% Liberal
9% Alberta

Does the pollster have any credibility here? It doesn't seem realistic for the NDP to have a chance of winning... it should be an easy PC win, no?

It would be great news if this poll was in any way accurate. Not just because the centre/left can have a chance, but a four-way race would be a well-needed shake-up in Albertan politics.

It should be noted that the group behind this survey is advocating for the progressive parties in Alberta to jointly nominate candidates in order to take out the PCs.  

Regarding the numbers, the PCs seem to be polling much too low, especially given Angus-Reid's recent job approval numbers for Premier Prentice, and the general disorganization of the opposition.  The NDP numbers are actually fairly believable, since they're really the only opposition party that's acting competently as of late.  I'd expect the Liberals and WRP to both be a little lower (maybe around 15%) in reality.  And there's no way that the Alberta Party is at 9%.


EDIT: on the topic of Alberta, the government tabled the budget for this year today.  Notable amongst the changes is the abandonment of the flat income tax; starting in 2016, new higher tax brackets will come into existence for incomes between $100,000 and $250,000 per year, and for incomes over $250,000 per year.
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