Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins

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1.NDP M.P Ryan Cleary and MHA Gerry Rogers are the most likely elected politicians to run for the leadership of the Newfoundland and Labrador NDP, not Jack Harris.

2.Michael Den Tandt is a mostly mediocre columnist who pretends he is an expert in economics.

3.Prospective Liberal candidate Jodie Emery was denied permission to run for the party nomination in Vancouver East.  I have to say I'm pleased about this. Although I generally believe that the local members should be allowed to decide who their candidate is, Emery is a one issue candidate who has supported political parties all over the map.  She was a Canadian supporter of Ron Paul in the 2012 election, has twice run provincially for the Green Party and has also voiced support in the past for the NDP.  She has no loyalty to the federal Liberal Party, and since the Liberal Party membership in Vancouver East is likely quite small (though I don't know that for sure) there was a danger she would sign up fellow travelers who also have no long term commitment to the party and win the nomination.

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I'm not a Conservative Party supporter, but I thought Baird did a bang up job as Foreign Affairs Minister. He went from being an attack dog to a statesman in record time.

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Forum has the Tories at 25% in Quebec

Riiiiigght

The poll says the NDP are at 25% in Quebec.  I can't find where it mentions the Conservatives in Quebec.

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The results by regions for the Forum poll are on page 7 of the document. For the province of Quebec the sample is 321.

Libe: 27% Cons: 26% NDP:25% Bloc 18% Green:3%

There is also national data by language with ties.
French: 26% for the three main federal parties
English: 37% LIb and Con with NDP at 18%
 

The new Abacus poll has Quebec numbers that are much more consistent with other polls:
NDP: 35%
Liberals: 27%
Bloc (heads): 16%
Conservatives: 14%

http://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Abacus-Release-Headline-Political-Data-Feb-2015-.pdf

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The 'gang of 5' supporters can't stand Selinger.
The Selinger supporters can't stand the 'gang of 5'

Steve Ashton will easily win on the second ballot.

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"Anyways, Shea might lose her seat, but Mackay might be safe. It'll be the last Tory seat to go down in Nova Scotia. "

The Liberals trying to beat MacKay is a case of 'be careful what you wish for"  Should the Conservatives lose the next election and Harper step down, MacKay would be the frontrunner if he is still an M.P
Without him, Jason Kenney would be the likely frontrunner.  While Kenney is competent and capable, MacKay is a total incompetent and is stupid.

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Adam: MacKay the frontrunner? What are you smoking?

DC: Yeah. MacKay almost certainly isn't running and will probably leave politics once we're back in opposition.

These EKOS immigration numbers are extremely disturbing.

Some of the immigration numbers may be due to the high housing prices in Toronto and Vancouver.

Regarding MacKay.  This poll isn't even all that old:
http://globalnews.ca/news/1739630/is-peter-mackay-the-best-choice-for-future-pm-tory-voters-say-yes/
December 22, 2014 2:00 pm

TORONTO – Though Prime Minister Stephen Harper has said he has no intention of changing the fixed election date of Oct. 19, 2015, there’s been some speculation he could step down before the fall, or call an early election in the spring. A new Global News/Ipsos Reid poll suggests half (48 per cent) of Canadians agree that overall, the Conservative majority government is “working well” for our country. So who could his successor be?

Justice Minister and Attorney General Peter MacKay has the most support from Tory voters polled at 35 per cent —  a significant lead on the other candidates. Click through the gallery below to see the Alberta politician who comes in second at 17 per cent, and the six others who are trailing behind.

Of the other ones polled, Jim Prentice, John Baird and John Tory are obviously not going to run and were all above Jason Kenney.  Given that they are all considered moderates, I would guess that much of their support would also go to MacKay, although the only reason MacKay is considered a moderate is that he used to be with the Progressive Conservatives.

In other news, according to CBC's At Issue, Jean Charest is planning to run for the Conservative Party leadership, once there is a race.

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It makes perfect sense that MacKay would lead in a public opinion poll. He has the biggest name recognition. No one has heard of James Moore of Jason Kenney (outside of the Ottawa bubble of course). Peter MacKay on the other hand is a household name.

Of course leading with Conservative voters and leading with Conservative members are two different things.

1.Jason Kenney has been a cabinet minister for as long as Peter MacKay and is, obviously, extremely well known in the so-called 'ethnic communities.'  I don't really know why Peter MacKay would be better known than Jason Kenney, though I agree he likely is.

2.Given that leadership conventions are now one member one vote, there doesn't really need to be any difference between Conservative voters and Conservative members.  The last Conservative leadership campaign had something approaching 500,000 members.

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Oh I forgot that.  That said, the leader isn't chosen by a delegated convention, and, as I said previously, the Conservatives claimed to have somewhere around 300,000-500,000 members in their party during their last leadership campaign.  Though the number of voters would likely have been far less, 300,000 to 500,000 members would be roughly 10% of all Conservative Party voters. 

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From Monacle Radio's 'The Entrepreneurs':
A special episode featuring an in-depth look at the entrepreneurship scene in Montreal and the business minds on a mission to reclaim the glory of Quebec’s largest city.

Included was a segment on Montreal's thriving small retail shop scene and a segment on PKP.
http://monocle.com/radio/shows/the-entrepreneurs/

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Lisa Raitt, maybe? She herself has left the door open. Nicholson seems a natural pick for interim leader.

Raitt would get demolished over his "cancer is sexy" comment.

Is that even relevant given that Kenney is set to demolish whoever runs against him? The Reds need someone reasonably prominent to run, and they're short on candidates.

Besides, it was 6 years ago, and even most political junkies don't remember it.

Given how non-delegated leadership conventions tend to have few candidates. I imagine the field will be as follows:

1) Kenney
2) Red Tory (Raitt maybe?)
3) Bernier

Tony Clement and Chris Alexander may also run, and don't count Peter MacKay out of running just because he isn't running for reelection.  He's already said he plans on coming back.

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James Moore has also said that he wants to run again and probably soon.

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Star found the Wynne documentary.

She comes across a lot better than Lester Pearson apparently did in his unaired documentary.