Ontario municipal elections, (October 27, 2014) - Master thread
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Author Topic: Ontario municipal elections, (October 27, 2014) - Master thread  (Read 52580 times)
Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #175 on: June 26, 2014, 10:10:39 AM »

Yes, Ford has a surprisingly high floor. It may be as low as 20%, but likely higher than that.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #176 on: June 26, 2014, 12:51:30 PM »

Ottawa news... Alex Cullen, former Councillor 2000-2010 for Bay Ward and recent NDP candidate in Ottawa West - Nepean is running again for Council (just registered, read via Facebook)
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #177 on: June 26, 2014, 07:41:53 PM »

Ottawa news... Alex Cullen, former Councillor 2000-2010 for Bay Ward and recent NDP candidate in Ottawa West - Nepean is running again for Council (just registered, read via Facebook)

Cool. He won't win though, unfortunately.
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cp
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« Reply #178 on: June 27, 2014, 04:07:15 AM »

Why not?
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #179 on: June 27, 2014, 07:00:34 AM »

Well, he lost last time - so he will lose again most likely. I don't see what has changed to make him more appealing to residents of Bay Ward. The current councillor (Mark Taylor, a Liberal) seems to be doing a good job. Taylor has promised only to sit for two terms (I hate when they do that), so this will be his last election. Cullen might be able to win it next time, mostly due to the huge vote splitting that happens whenever there is an open seat.

I suspect there won't be many incumbents (if any) losing their seats in Ottawa. There is no "appetite for change" like 4 years ago. In fact, we still only have 2 mayoral candidates registered. One would've expected a handful of fringe candidates by now. This is all pointing toward a record low turnout.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #180 on: July 07, 2014, 07:03:29 PM »

Toronto: Nanos has Tory ahead of Chow 39/32/21.
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DL
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« Reply #181 on: July 07, 2014, 09:13:33 PM »

So in the last two weeks polls have had Tory as low as 24% and as high as 39% - still 4 months to go!
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #182 on: July 07, 2014, 11:50:40 PM »

Hazel's retirement is pretty exciting for Mississauga. Not that Crombie and Mahoney are really any different from each other, but just the prospect of a new mayor is so strange. I think I'm gonna go with Mahoney myself.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #183 on: July 08, 2014, 01:54:11 AM »

I thought she would stay in the mayorship until her death. I suppose she is over 85, at this point.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #184 on: July 08, 2014, 08:38:54 AM »

I thought she would stay in the mayorship until her death. I suppose she is over 85, at this point.

She's 93.

Hazel's retirement is pretty exciting for Mississauga. Not that Crombie and Mahoney are really any different from each other, but just the prospect of a new mayor is so strange. I think I'm gonna go with Mahoney myself.

What are the differences?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #185 on: July 08, 2014, 08:39:46 AM »

I thought she would stay in the mayorship until her death. I suppose she is over 85, at this point.

She's 93.

Hazel's retirement is pretty exciting for Mississauga. Not that Crombie and Mahoney are really any different from each other, but just the prospect of a new mayor is so strange. I think I'm gonna go with Mahoney myself.

What are the differences?

One was a Chretienite, the other a Martinet... Tongue
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #186 on: July 23, 2014, 08:24:09 AM »

Forum-TO: Chow 29, Tory 28, Ford 27, Stintz 6, Soknacki 5.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #187 on: July 23, 2014, 12:38:38 PM »


Chow's lead widdens... slightly, When just the three leading candidates are tested, Olivia Chow prevails (35%) against John Tory (32%) and Rob Ford (27%).
Notice Ford's number don't move; This will be a fight for who can win votes from Stintz and Soknacki and if anyone can pull from Ford will win out, you'd think that would be Tory but based on the strengths of each
"The poll suggests Ford is strong in Scarborough, among low-income voters, among voters with little education, and among people of Caribbean background, though the Caribbean sample was small. Chow is strong with younger, lower-income downtown voters and Tory with older, higher-income suburban voters." I don't see Fords low-incomers going Tory so much, but I don't necessarily see them going on-mass to Chow either. No one is going to win over 40%, its 2003 again
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DL
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« Reply #188 on: July 23, 2014, 12:54:51 PM »

No one is going to win over 40%, its 2003 again

In 2003, Miller won with 43% of the vote
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #189 on: July 23, 2014, 01:01:25 PM »

Luckily, Ford's support comes from the demographics least likely to vote. However, I do anticipate a very high turnout in general.
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DL
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« Reply #190 on: July 23, 2014, 01:03:39 PM »

If Soknacki drops out i predict that even though he is right of centre - he will endorse Chow - they have the same position on the LRT instead of subway in Scarborough and apparently they are personally very friendly from having both been on the budget committee 2000-2006
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #191 on: July 23, 2014, 01:08:19 PM »

The fact that there are clearly such things as Ford Dippers is beyond hilarious.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #192 on: July 23, 2014, 01:14:53 PM »

No one is going to win over 40%, its 2003 again

In 2003, Miller won with 43% of the vote

I stand corrected; this will be closer then 2003, but along the same lines of a three way race except I don't expect the epic fall to happen to Ford like what happened to Hall.

Well; Ford Dippers are many of the low-income, under-edicated working class populists that "tax slogans" work on; it would be similar to the working class folk who always voted Labour but now vote UKIP or in France, where old Communists now vote FN... it's dumb, but happens
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #193 on: July 23, 2014, 01:18:53 PM »
« Edited: July 23, 2014, 01:20:28 PM by King of Kensington »

Except Ford does well among Black voters while Labour to UKIP switching is virtually all white working class.  Granted the sample size is small - but is Toronto's Black community just more conservative?  In the US we'd probably be seeing "justice for Anthony Smith" protests.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #194 on: July 23, 2014, 01:33:46 PM »

There's a certain percentage of the electorate here that typically votes Labour but is quite happy to occasionally vote for populist insanity of one form or another - consider also the now happily departed BNP, but also (inevitably crazy) independents and other smaller parties - at local polls, and there's a certain (small) percentage that always votes for such candidates, but Ford clearly has appeal beyond whatever the Toronto equivalent of such people. But my post was an amused half-observation rather than a serious point.
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Hash
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« Reply #195 on: July 23, 2014, 02:13:26 PM »


No.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #196 on: July 23, 2014, 02:53:13 PM »


This is the perception I've been reading, sorry its the newer generation rather then the old guard...
"What’s more, the party (FN) now achieves support among a generation which might have once been expected to be out protesting against it, polling best among young people and the working class. Many of the latter represent a significant loss for the Left, and particularly the far-left party of Jean-Luc Melenchon"
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/05/front-national-s-success-france-shows-protest-votes-can-no-longer-be-easily
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #197 on: July 23, 2014, 03:16:11 PM »

A good idea not to lecture Hash about French politics Wink

Anyways, as absurd as the idea of Ford New Democrats is, think about who the kinds of people are who voted for both Rob Anders and Naheed Nenshi in Calgary.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #198 on: July 23, 2014, 03:20:40 PM »
« Edited: July 23, 2014, 04:16:35 PM by King of Kensington »

It seems to me that some of the "social democratic constituency" seems to be parking some votes with Soknacki right now (I think it's largely white progressive inner city types who like his "hipster-ironic" anti-Ford ad and that he "speaks his mind" etc.) as well as the Black community which seems to be pretty pro-Ford.
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Hash
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« Reply #199 on: July 23, 2014, 04:32:05 PM »


This is the perception I've been reading, sorry its the newer generation rather then the old guard...
"What’s more, the party (FN) now achieves support among a generation which might have once been expected to be out protesting against it, polling best among young people and the working class. Many of the latter represent a significant loss for the Left, and particularly the far-left party of Jean-Luc Melenchon"
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/05/front-national-s-success-france-shows-protest-votes-can-no-longer-be-easily

Well, obviously journalists (especially foreign ones) have absolutely no clue what they're talking about, especially as it concerns the FN's electorate. They're always looking for a way to sneak in their favourite myth about 'extremes meeting extremes' or some kind of 'populist alliance', or they just grasp at straws and/or build totally implausible/blatantly false theories. That being said, nothing in what you quoted actually says that the FN is gaining from the far-left/PCF. Please, for the love of all that is good, don't trust journalists (foreign or domestic) with their flimsy electoral 'analyses' or anything of that kind.

If you look at serious academic literature on the topic, all agree that the 'Commies voting FN' theory is total junk and that the actual direct transfers, at any point in time, from the hard left to the far-right are very small to statistically insignificant. Of course, 2012 was somewhat different in that Panzergirl's electorate was rather different from the Panzerdaddy electorate pre-2007 and Mélenchon's vote was actually very spatially different from the traditional PCF vote when you looked at the details, but I've seen nothing which leads me to believe that the literature may be outdated. (Partial) Correlation of FN support with historic PCF support does not equal causation. This is not to deny that there is something called gaucho-lepénisme, but even that is often misconstrued as just left-wingers voting for the far-right, when in fact the phenomenon is far more complex than that, and should more accurately be known as ninisme as Nonna Mayer very aptly branded it as in 2002.
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