Ontario municipal elections, (October 27, 2014) - Master thread

[Zanas]

Thank you Hash. Keep being awesome.

[lilTommy]

old Communists now vote FN

No.

This is the perception I've been reading, sorry its the newer generation rather then the old guard...
"What’s more, the party (FN) now achieves support among a generation which might have once been expected to be out protesting against it, polling best among young people and the working class. Many of the latter represent a significant loss for the Left, and particularly the far-left party of Jean-Luc Melenchon"
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/05/front-national-s-success-france-shows-protest-votes-can-no-longer-be-easily

Well, obviously journalists (especially foreign ones) have absolutely no clue what they're talking about, especially as it concerns the FN's electorate. They're always looking for a way to sneak in their favourite myth about 'extremes meeting extremes' or some kind of 'populist alliance', or they just grasp at straws and/or build totally implausible/blatantly false theories. That being said, nothing in what you quoted actually says that the FN is gaining from the far-left/PCF. Please, for the love of all that is good, don't trust journalists (foreign or domestic) with their flimsy electoral 'analyses' or anything of that kind.

If you look at serious academic literature on the topic, all agree that the 'Commies voting FN' theory is total junk and that the actual direct transfers, at any point in time, from the hard left to the far-right are very small to statistically insignificant. Of course, 2012 was somewhat different in that Panzergirl's electorate was rather different from the Panzerdaddy electorate pre-2007 and Mélenchon's vote was actually very spatially different from the traditional PCF vote when you looked at the details, but I've seen nothing which leads me to believe that the literature may be outdated. (Partial) Correlation of FN support with historic PCF support does not equal causation. This is not to deny that there is something called gaucho-lepénisme, but even that is often misconstrued as just left-wingers voting for the far-right, when in fact the phenomenon is far more complex than that, and should more accurately be known as ninisme as Nonna Mayer very aptly branded it as in 2002.

Thanks! damned journalist looking for the quick-easy answer!

back to Ontario, I think King and DL are right, Soknacki will endorse Chow (if he bows out) and I think most of his voters will shift to Chow as the policies are very similar... and I think he appeals to the non-NDP Hipster-anti-ford group. The other thing is where does Stintz 5-6% go? My feeling is Tory, but will she stick it out?

Not sure if talked a lot about Hamilton, it's an open mayors race as one term Bratina is not running again, instead he will go up against David Christopherson in the federal seat of Hamilton Centre in 2015.
Wiki told me these are the candidates:
Brian McHattie - Ward 1 councillor, NDP, pro-LRT
Michael Baldasaro - leader of a religious sect Church of the Universe, marijuana activist         
Ejaz Butt - Taxi Workers Union President
Mike Clancy         
Brad Clark - Ward 9 Councillor, former PC MPP, Harris Cabinet minister      
Fred Eisenberger - Former Mayor, Conservative
Nick Iamonico         
Crystal Lavigne

[DL]

The other thing is where does Stintz 5-6% go? My feeling is Tory, but will she stick it out?

I'm not so sure about that - some of the relatively small number of people parked with Stintz like her because she's a woman and because she was depicted as having a stood up to Ford - so I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of her vote - such that it exists - would go to Chow, especially given the surprising animosity between her and Tory lately - she really tore into him at the last debate.

[lilTommy]

The other thing is where does Stintz 5-6% go? My feeling is Tory, but will she stick it out?

I'm not so sure about that - some of the relatively small number of people parked with Stintz like her because she's a woman and because she was depicted as having a stood up to Ford - so I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of her vote - such that it exists - would go to Chow, especially given the surprising animosity between her and Tory lately - she really tore into him at the last debate.

This would be good news for Chow; If Soknacki's voters and Stintz's look to migrate to Chow (if those two bow out) she has the most potential to grow her support. 

[DL]

IMHO, we are at a stage of the campaign where Tory is still "all things to all people" and has been very vague about his policies and that is letting people project whatever they want on to him...this will not last indefinitely. The other candidates will all start driving up Tory's "negatives" in various ways - and believe me he has plenty.

[RogueBeaver]

TO: Star profiles Michael Ford.

[Linus Van Pelt]

LOL, totally insane list of Toronto mayoral debates.

[Hatman 🍁]

This article helps to explain the popularity of Rob Ford among Blacks: http://www.nowtoronto.com/news/story.cfm?content=199045

[DL]

This article helps to explain the popularity of Rob Ford among Blacks: http://www.nowtoronto.com/news/story.cfm?content=199045

Its an interesting phenomenon - even if highly anecdotal...but Blacks are a relatively small proportion of the population - much smaller than the proportion who would still vote for Ford - the media is titillated by the idea of poor Blacks voting for Ford - but the real backbone of his support come from cranky old white men in the 'burbs who drive cars and own their homes. 

[Krago]

The truth is that Ford got votes everywhere outside the old City of Toronto, not just in the 'white' areas.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's a really very... telling... map.

[RogueBeaver]

TO-Pantazopoulos: 30/26/23 Tory. Decided only: 35/31/27. 36% of Tory supporters said Chow's their second choice, 44% vice-versa.

[Hatman 🍁]

The truth is that Ford got votes everywhere outside the old City of Toronto, not just in the 'white' areas.

Smitherman's campaign colour was purple!

Weird map though, very, very weird.

[King of Kensington]

Attributing Ford's victory to Blacks is as silly as saying Blacks were responsible for Prop 8 passing in California - in both cases far more white people voted for Ford/Prop 8.

Interestingly, we've never heard about the "Black vote" in Canada until Ford.  They make up more than 20% of the population in a few ridings and the Black population in the GTA is about the same percentage as in L.A. and the Bay Area.  Yes I know they're not the largest VM, but they're certainly large enough to take note of. 

[RogueBeaver]

308: Tory bump is real.

Pantazopoulous analyses his poll.

[RogueBeaver]

TO-Mayor: Chow nosedives in new Forum poll, primarily due to a sea change among women. 35 Tory, 27 Ford, 25 Chow.

[Hatman 🍁]

lol summer polling taken seriously

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Gun to your head, who wins?

I still think Chow will pull it off.

[Hatman 🍁]

Blowhard Ottawa Sun columnist Susan Sherring will be running for council in Gloucester South-Nepean Ward. I now have someone to actively root against there.

[RogueBeaver]

Kinsella making news for the wrong reasons, Chow has to clean up.

[lilTommy]

Stintz is done, she's pulled out of the mayors race and her political career is over:
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/08/21/karen-stintz-toronto-mayoral-race-2014_n_5697512.html?utm_hp_ref=canada-politics

no endorsement of any other candidate... yet

[DL]

Karen Stintz has dropped out of the race. She is not endorsing any other candidate and will exit political life completely and not seek a council seat. Good riddance. What few votes she had will split 50/50 between Chow and Tory in all likelhood

[lilTommy]

Not sure if others who are connected with the Liberals and PCs are seeing this but, I'm seeing a number of provincial NDP candidates from June running for municipal wards now. I'm sure they are hoping for name recognition to help, and note 4 were 2nd place high performing NDP candidates (White, Holland, Dhillon and Shan) There is nothing new i suppose but i feel its very sudden so many prov. candidates are jumping municipally, no?

Brian White - Sarnia
Mary Rita Holland - Kingston
Gurpreet Singh Dhillon - Brampton
Alex Cullen - Ottawa
Thomas Gallezot - Toronto (ward 16)
Neethan Shan - Toronto (ward 42)
Margaret Johnston - Kitchener
Joe Cressy - Toronto (ward 20)(although it was the Federal by-election)

[Hatman 🍁]

Not the same, but Brad Pye (2008 federal candidate in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour) is running for council in Ottawa in Gloucester-Southgate. He's running against the sitting city councillor, left-Liberal Diane Deans (ex(?) wife of former NDP MP Ian Deans) who is the main opposition on council (from the left), so this was not a wise ward choice for him.

The two school trustees who ran provincially for the NDP here don't appear to be running for re-election, but we'll see. One of them is my trustee, so I hope the only guy running so far is decent.

[RogueBeaver]

Mississauga: mostly undecided.