Ontario municipal elections, (October 27, 2014) - Master thread
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Author Topic: Ontario municipal elections, (October 27, 2014) - Master thread  (Read 52581 times)
Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #225 on: August 24, 2014, 03:03:15 PM »

My councillor unexpectedly dropped out of the race Friday. No one expected it. The only 2 candidates running are no names. Only a couple more weeks to go in the nomination period, so the race is on in Alta Vista Cheesy
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #226 on: August 25, 2014, 10:52:54 AM »

Chow and Tory jockeying for Grit support.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #227 on: August 28, 2014, 12:11:50 AM »

Looks like the "strategic vote" might stampede to Tory.

https://twitter.com/TorStarEditor/status/504830349873258496
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andrew_c
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« Reply #228 on: August 28, 2014, 03:34:52 AM »

It's still too close to call at this point, since the late campaign polls will decide who gets the "anyone but Ford" vote.  Strategic voters will move en masse to the candidate who polls higher support during the last two weeks of the campaign.  Either Chow or Tory will win by a landslide.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #229 on: August 28, 2014, 08:32:09 AM »

Forum: Tory 36, Ford 31, Chow 26.

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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #230 on: August 28, 2014, 06:33:12 PM »

Kinsella will no longer run Chow's war room.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #231 on: September 01, 2014, 06:36:39 AM »

I don't know if anybody has seen this, but candidate Paul Alves running in Ward 19 of Toronto Council did a Reddit AMA yesterday.

Unfortunately it was a trainwreck, culminating in threatening to sue a user for slander, before storming off in a huff. Awkward stuff.

http://www.reddit.com/r/toronto/comments/2eztva/my_name_is_paul_alves_and_im_running_in_ward_18/
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #232 on: September 02, 2014, 06:01:30 PM »

Nanos-TO: Tory 42, Ford 28, Chow 26.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #233 on: September 03, 2014, 11:21:40 AM »

Have any of you heard of Poletical? looks like they have an online poll of the TO mayoral race:

http://www.poletical.com/toronto-election-race-2014.php?formI3132Posted=true

Tory - 31%
Chow - 29%
Ford - 19%
Socknaki - 17%

The outlier for me is Socknaki, I have never seen him above like 5%! Its online, and he seems to be playing well with the urban-hipster-but-not-ndp-voter. 

"Poletical's poll results were acquired exclusively online. Only IP addresses from Toronto were counted, while multiple votes and votes from outside of Toronto were discarded. Through the month of August, 521 Torontonians took the poll. Votes received from people who chose 'under 18' were not counted in these results."
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #234 on: September 03, 2014, 07:28:23 PM »

Only IP addresses from Toronto were counted, while multiple votes and votes from outside of Toronto were discarded. Through the month of August, 521 Torontonians took the poll. Votes received from people who chose 'under 18' were not counted in these results.

Sounds like it's not a real poll.
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andrew_c
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« Reply #235 on: September 03, 2014, 07:52:11 PM »

It might be a leaked internal poll.
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Smid
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« Reply #236 on: September 03, 2014, 08:25:04 PM »

Only IP addresses from Toronto were counted, while multiple votes and votes from outside of Toronto were discarded. Through the month of August, 521 Torontonians took the poll. Votes received from people who chose 'under 18' were not counted in these results.

Sounds like it's not a real poll.

I assumed that was what Tommy was getting at when he said that it was an online poll and this candidate was polling well with the young-but-not-NDP-hipsters. Kind of like a poll taken in the lobby of a party's headquarters...
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #237 on: September 03, 2014, 08:32:24 PM »

Post on how the Liberal government's onetime foe is now their candidate.

Grit house organ concern-trolls Chow and TO Dippers generally.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #238 on: September 06, 2014, 01:56:45 PM »

Back in Ottawa, River Ward councillor Maria McRae is retiring. I've heard rumours she wants to enter provincial or federal politics for the Liberals. She lives in Ottawa South, but her ward contains parts of Ottawa Centre and Ottawa West-Nepean, which will be looking for Liberal candidates.

It's a big surprise with only a week left in the nomination period. No serious candidates have entered yet.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #239 on: September 09, 2014, 09:25:36 AM »

Jon Stewart endorses Chow: http://www.torontosun.com/2014/09/08/jon-stewart-pulling-for-olivia-chow-in-mayors-race Smiley

Is this a game changer? He should mention her on his show.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #240 on: September 09, 2014, 09:59:04 AM »


YAY! a lil'boost for Chow among those who are tittering between her and Soknacki I think... Also hear he might drop out this week?

Anywho... wonder what Sarah Thomson is up to? she is now joined the 20+ candidates in the race for ward 20
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/sarah-thomson-quits-race-for-mayor-will-seek-council-seat-1.2760487?utm_content=bufferb3fed&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer

My estimate is that she will actually do rather well, if 2010's Ward 27 race tells us anything, a candidate can win with under 30%. But I think it will be Cressy with a slim margin over Thomson; there are no other "big" names that I can see running there outside those two.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #241 on: September 09, 2014, 01:48:11 PM »

20 candidates? holy smokes. And yet, next door Ward 22 has one candidate.

A couple of wards in Ottawa have just one candidate as well. Been awhile since we saw an acclamation.
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DL
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« Reply #242 on: September 09, 2014, 05:13:13 PM »



Anywho... wonder what Sarah Thomson is up to? she is now joined the 20+ candidates in the race for ward 20
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/sarah-thomson-quits-race-for-mayor-will-seek-council-seat-1.2760487?utm_content=bufferb3fed&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer

My estimate is that she will actually do rather well, if 2010's Ward 27 race tells us anything, a candidate can win with under 30%. But I think it will be Cressy with a slim margin over Thomson; there are no other "big" names that I can see running there outside those two.

I'm not so sure Thomson will even come in second...she has really embarrassed herself as a mayoral candidate polling at under 1% and being an object of ridicule and a buffoon. The biggest news she made was showing up to register in a horse drawn carriage! For Cressy to lose there has to be big name candidate who all the big guns in the Liberal party get behind - that person is NOT Sarah Thomson - even Liberals regard her as a lunatic and she was literally hounded out of the local liberal riding association because she was so hated.

Right now Cressy is the only one out of 27 candidates who has NDP ties - no competition there. on top of that he is backed by a slew of big name Liberals and PCs and Greens and the presidents of most of the residents associations. Then you have the losing Liberal candidates from 1999, 2007 and 2011 running all claiming to be the only Liberal who can beat Cressy - then you have about 5 other people claiming to have Liberal ties...plus three people with PC ties, plus a variety of itinerant independent kooks. 
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #243 on: September 09, 2014, 06:38:00 PM »

It seems like the only race dippers in Ottawa care about is Somerset Ward (downtown). I guess it's important to have one progressive on council.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #244 on: September 09, 2014, 08:59:49 PM »

TO: Soknacki has dropped out.
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Zanas
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« Reply #245 on: September 10, 2014, 04:39:05 AM »

Does that benefit Chow more than the others ?
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lilTommy
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« Reply #246 on: September 10, 2014, 06:15:00 AM »


Possibly... Soknacki and Chow hold similar positions on transit (only candidates to support the LRT option) they also previously had worked together on council both on the budget committee and from what I can see get along rather well. I don't see him endorsing Tory, mostly over his platform but Soknacki is a centrist, but seems to have gathered a strong lite-progressive-liberal-uber-hipster following. He's never really polled that well so she could expect maybe, IF he endorses here a 5% boost? I have two friends who were voting for him, one had Chow as his second choice the other Tory, I think that tells the story there.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #247 on: September 10, 2014, 07:56:34 AM »

TO-Forum: Tory 41, Ford 30, Chow 24.

No, Chow won't drop out.
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lilTommy
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« Reply #248 on: September 10, 2014, 09:42:41 AM »

NOW has a breakdown of the ward races:
http://www.nowtoronto.com/news/story.cfm?content=199508

also, just to note there are 27 Candidates in ward 20 (Cresy, Thomson)
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #249 on: September 10, 2014, 10:14:27 AM »

I guess Toronto Liberals have found their candidate, and it's not Olivia Chow. Sad

Amazing that John Tory could actually win an election.
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