Ontario municipal elections, (October 27, 2014) - Master thread

[Hatman 🍁]

Only one sitting councillor lost in Toronto, in Don Valley West where John Tory endorsed his buddy against another conservative.

Ottawa had two incumbents losing. I predicted on my blog that those very two councillors were in jeopardy.

[Citizen Hats]

I find it utterly bizarre that the parts of Toronto which managed to elect a Liberal MP in 2011, with the exception of Centre, all voted for Doug Ford.  Your suburban Liberals are weird, Ontario

[Boston Bread]

Calgary is weird, too. A gay progressive Muslim got like 70% of the vote there I think. Issues are different. But with Ford it's more like the absence of issues. A you vs. the elite type of appeal with the working class. Party ID is a factor. PCs have no seats in Toronto but with independent labels many conservative councillors, including Rob Ford who has returned in a landslide, were voted in. But, yes Ford/Wynne voters I really don't understand. Not to mention the polls showing Ford carrying a third of Green voters and a fifth of NDPers. With the high turnout there must have been a lot of these voters.

[Boston Bread]

Consider York West in June:
47% Liberal
39% NDP
11% PC
Now consider that the wards in that riding all went over 60% for Doug Ford. Truly a sight to behold.

On the other hand, Doug Ford barely outperformed the PCs in the traditionally NDP areas of the downtown core.

[MaxQue]

Calgary is weird, too. A gay progressive Muslim got like 70% of the vote there I think. Issues are different. But with Ford it's more like the absence of issues. A you vs. the elite type of appeal with the working class. Party ID is a factor. PCs have no seats in Toronto but with independent labels many conservative councillors, including Rob Ford who has returned in a landslide, were voted in. But, yes Ford/Wynne voters I really don't understand. Not to mention the polls showing Ford carrying a third of Green voters and a fifth of NDPers. With the high turnout there must have been a lot of these voters.

Nenshi isn't gay.

[Boston Bread]

Nenshi isn't gay.

I may be mistaken. I thought I heard it off an article about how he's the mayor Toronto should have.

[Boston Bread]

Anyways, I found this map which might explain the situation a little.


It's very class based in addition to downtown vs suburb.
We can see Tory won wealthy areas irrespective of location.
Poor + downtown = Chow (downtown is wealthier so not much purple)
Poor + suburb = Ford

So it seems anti-elitism is why Tory never caught on with lower-income Ford Nation that much. He absorbed Chow and minor candidate supporters - the anybody but Ford vote.
Rich suburbs which voted for Rob now backtracked to Tory after four years in office.
The question is why down-scale suburbanites love Ford. Even in the 2011 federal conservative breakthrough, the CPC never won Toronto ridings overwhelmingly, and their gains in places like York or Scarborough were more cracks than clean sweeps. Again, class seems to explain the different pattern of support for the CPC and Ford. Note the CPC won high-income Don Valley while it was a John Tory stronghold.
The Liberals and NDP do have a much better hold on lower-class suburbs than municipal progressives. Many Ford supporters aren't engaged beyond the special place they hold for the Fords in their hearts, even if the Fords are still filthy rich themselves. Urban populism isn't something the PCs or CPCs can wield and again different issues cause these voters to side with other parties. I would imagine it's much harder to convince voters that say, Hudak would be best for the working class.

[Hatman 🍁]

I find it utterly bizarre that the parts of Toronto which managed to elect a Liberal MP in 2011, with the exception of Centre, all voted for Doug Ford.  Your suburban Liberals are weird, Ontario

You mean, minorities? I think they're the Ford Liberal types.

Calgary is weird, too. A gay progressive Muslim got like 70% of the vote there I think. Issues are different. But with Ford it's more like the absence of issues. A you vs. the elite type of appeal with the working class. Party ID is a factor. PCs have no seats in Toronto but with independent labels many conservative councillors, including Rob Ford who has returned in a landslide, were voted in. But, yes Ford/Wynne voters I really don't understand. Not to mention the polls showing Ford carrying a third of Green voters and a fifth of NDPers. With the high turnout there must have been a lot of these voters.

Nenshi isn't gay.

That we know of.

Anyways, I found this map which might explain the situation a little.


It's very class based in addition to downtown vs suburb.
We can see Tory won wealthy areas irrespective of location.
Poor + downtown = Chow (downtown is wealthier so not much purple)
Poor + suburb = Ford

So it seems anti-elitism is why Tory never caught on with lower-income Ford Nation that much. He absorbed Chow and minor candidate supporters - the anybody but Ford vote.
Rich suburbs which voted for Rob now backtracked to Tory after four years in office.
The question is why down-scale suburbanites love Ford. Even in the 2011 federal conservative breakthrough, the CPC never won Toronto ridings overwhelmingly, and their gains in places like York or Scarborough were more cracks than clean sweeps. Again, class seems to explain the different pattern of support for the CPC and Ford. Note the CPC won high-income Don Valley while it was a John Tory stronghold.
The Liberals and NDP do have a much better hold on lower-class suburbs than municipal progressives. Many Ford supporters aren't engaged beyond the special place they hold for the Fords in their hearts, even if the Fords are still filthy rich themselves. Urban populism isn't something the PCs or CPCs can wield and again different issues cause these voters to side with other parties. I would imagine it's much harder to convince voters that say, Hudak would be best for the working class.

The comparison is striking.

So Chow lost ward 20 then? A shame, really. I guess it is the wealthier half of her old riding. But, I suppose I should be happy she won any wards.  Interesting to see that John Tory finished third in a handful of lower income areas.

[Hatman 🍁]

More maps:

[Hatman 🍁]

Compare:

[Boston Bread]

Also Ford Nation doesn't use transit plays a role in their localized support for right-wingers. At the municipal levels they don't want to pay for it but are willing to pay for provincial education, health care etc that they feel like they can benefit from.
The opposition to transit is a tad crazy. I know in my city most don't use transit but even then the one anti-LRT candidate had support levels in the teens.
And why minorities disproportionally take this position is also confusing.

[Hatman 🍁]

A candidate for Catholic school board trustee who had pulled out of the race got elected anyways: http://www.ottawasun.com/2014/10/28/school-board-trustee-elected---but-doesnt-want-job

Proof that electing school board trustees is a waste of time. Last election, a candidate was elected to the Catholic board just because he had the same name as a famous local politician.

[Boston Bread]

Proof that electing school board trustees is a waste of time. Last election, a candidate was elected to the Catholic board just because he had the same name as a famous local politician.

A 20-year old Mike Ford with only a high school diploma and family business experience defeated a highly-qualified, experienced, centre-right incumbent in Toronto city council. That Ford barely even campaigned. Democracy just doesn't work when voters don't understand their options. Downballot municipal elections suffer from this.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Also Ford Nation doesn't use transit plays a role in their localized support for right-wingers. At the municipal levels they don't want to pay for it but are willing to pay for provincial education, health care etc that they feel like they can benefit from.
The opposition to transit is a tad crazy. I know in my city most don't use transit but even then the one anti-LRT candidate had support levels in the teens.
And why minorities disproportionally take this position is also confusing.

This isn't really true. I mean, it probably is true for some of Ford's more affluent, older suburban base. But low-income minorities in Scarborough and north Etobicoke clearly use transit.

Indeed, the Fords aren't really anti-transit as a matter of substance. One of their key planks this election was the extension of the subway deeper into Scarborough. They are, to be sure, very hostile to things like bike lanes and street-running LRT's that appeal to the downtown green vote and would reduce lanes for cars. But however right-wing they are on other issues, they are very willing to spend millions on new subways. This is, I think pretty important to their suburban low-income vote.

[Hatman 🍁]

Proof that electing school board trustees is a waste of time. Last election, a candidate was elected to the Catholic board just because he had the same name as a famous local politician.

A 20-year old Mike Ford with only a high school diploma and family business experience defeated a highly-qualified, experienced, centre-right incumbent in Toronto city council. That Ford barely even campaigned. Democracy just doesn't work when voters don't understand their options. Downballot municipal elections suffer from this.

I think you mean Trustee. Mike Ford won as a trustee. But, I think we all knew Mike Ford would win. It is Ford Nation after all.

[adma]

I find it utterly bizarre that the parts of Toronto which managed to elect a Liberal MP in 2011, with the exception of Centre, all voted for Doug Ford.  Your suburban Liberals are weird, Ontario

Also don't forget St. Paul's.

[Citizen Hats]

How could I forget about the marvelous Carolyn Bennett? Shame, shame

[lilTommy]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/multimedia/explore-toronto-s-political-landscape-by-issue-1.2815817?utm_content=buffer2ceee&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer

This is a review of the actual issues based on ward by ward support (Subways vs LRT, Airport expansion, Affordable housing, etc)
Some very interesting results; many areas that have the highest levels of poverty, immigrants and low income earners support some of the more right-wing conservative stances (and in fact harmful/detrimental policies that make their lives worse) The Ford ideology has permeated these areas.. its really rather sad. The left has it's work cut out for it!

[DL]

A 20-year old Mike Ford with only a high school diploma and family business experience defeated a highly-qualified, experienced, centre-right incumbent in Toronto city council.

Not quite true, the incumbent trustee that Mike Ford beat was John Hastings was not highly qualified or centre right at all. He was a rabidly rightwing social conservative who often seconded bigoted motions by Sam Sotiropoulos - the homophobic trustee from Scarborough-Agincourt who lost on Monday. Based on some post-election interviews, Mike Ford actually sounds like an improvement over the guy he beat - he actually spoke out against Sotiropoulos's homophobic remarks etc...

[King of Kensington]

Looks like Ford bombed with the highly educated, the wealthy, gays and Jews.  Ford basically got the working class vote, the poor and visible minorities. Chow only won the largely "creative class" west end.

Tory won due to strategic voting and the complete evaporation of Ford's 2010 support among the wealthy.

[politicus]

Ford basically got the working class vote, the poor and visible minorities.

Why did those groups prefer Ford to Chow?

[cp]

Answer that question and you'll have quite a career in political consulting!

IMHO the Fords' popularity is tied to the socioeconomic exclusion experienced by a growing number of people in Toronto as well as many other places around the world. It's a reaction to the perception (not terribly accurate, though not wholly inaccurate) that a small elite, both economic and cultural, has rigged the political system to their own advantage.

This perception doesn't fall neatly into the categories of left/right wing. It's more like an us/them tribal identity. It's why this constituency will vote for Harper, Wynne, and Ford without feeling contradictory. It's why they won't vote for Chow, despite her policies being the most effective at combating the inequality that incites their anger. It's also why they see a millionaire like Ford as one of them. It's not about policy, it's about perception.

*takes academic hat off*

[DL]

This perception doesn't fall neatly into the categories of left/right wing. It's more like an us/them tribal identity. It's why this constituency will vote for Harper, Wynne, and Ford without feeling contradictory. It's why they won't vote for Chow, despite her policies being the most effective at combating the inequality that incites their anger. It's also why they see a millionaire like Ford as one of them. It's not about policy, it's about perception.

*takes academic hat off*

One question we will never know if what would have happened if Ford had been diagnosed with cancer two days later and had to drop out of the race past the deadline for his brother to enter the race - then there would have been no Ford on the ballot at all and it would have been a pure Tory vs Chow contest. How would all those very low income visible minority voters in the 'burbs have voted if their only choices were John Tory and Olivia Chow? We will never know.

I suspect that a large chunk of those people would prefer Chow to Tory but that a large chunk would just stay home

[cp]

I suspect you're right about the staying home part. I wonder, though, if Chow would have been able to get back into competition even in a two person race. She lost much of her support well before September and wasn't terribly effective as a candidate overall (as much as it pains me to say so; I really like her politics and her personality).

[DL]

Its hard to say - if Ford had been out of the race there would have been no reason for anyone to "vote strategically for Tory" so I suspect that Chow would have had a stronger showing in the downtown Toronto wards - and who knows what would have happened elsewhere...one gets the impression that the working class segment of Ford's enduring support was more agitatedly anti-Tory than anti-Chow.