Ontario municipal elections, (October 27, 2014) - Master thread

[Boston Bread]

The election is coming up so here's my thoughts:

It looks like Ford more years is done. Good riddance.

In my city (Waterloo), I'm supporting Erika Traub. There's MacDonald the conservative (he was a former PC candidate) who's against LRT, one no-name, and two progressive candidates who want more transit and bike stuff. (Erika's one of the two) Hopefully Dave MacDonald doesn't creep up the middle and win but even then he can't stop LRT since the council supports it and cancelling it would waste millions of dollars. PCs may have been third in my riding in the Ontario provincials, but they've been historically strong in this city and with lower turnouts and what are likely different voting patterns at the municipal level I can't predict what will happen. Overall Jaworsky(?) - the other progressive - has the advantage from most news sources, but some say it's a three way race between MacDonald, Jaworsky, and Traub after her good performance at the debate.

[Boston Bread]

I called my town of residence and Toronto right! Not hard calls, but it's good to see those I supported (at least as the lesser of two evils) succeed. And of course it's nice to see the PC candidate third once again.

[Boston Bread]

Calgary is weird, too. A gay progressive Muslim got like 70% of the vote there I think. Issues are different. But with Ford it's more like the absence of issues. A you vs. the elite type of appeal with the working class. Party ID is a factor. PCs have no seats in Toronto but with independent labels many conservative councillors, including Rob Ford who has returned in a landslide, were voted in. But, yes Ford/Wynne voters I really don't understand. Not to mention the polls showing Ford carrying a third of Green voters and a fifth of NDPers. With the high turnout there must have been a lot of these voters.

[Boston Bread]

Consider York West in June:
47% Liberal
39% NDP
11% PC
Now consider that the wards in that riding all went over 60% for Doug Ford. Truly a sight to behold.

On the other hand, Doug Ford barely outperformed the PCs in the traditionally NDP areas of the downtown core.

[Boston Bread]

Nenshi isn't gay.

I may be mistaken. I thought I heard it off an article about how he's the mayor Toronto should have.

[Boston Bread]

Anyways, I found this map which might explain the situation a little.


It's very class based in addition to downtown vs suburb.
We can see Tory won wealthy areas irrespective of location.
Poor + downtown = Chow (downtown is wealthier so not much purple)
Poor + suburb = Ford

So it seems anti-elitism is why Tory never caught on with lower-income Ford Nation that much. He absorbed Chow and minor candidate supporters - the anybody but Ford vote.
Rich suburbs which voted for Rob now backtracked to Tory after four years in office.
The question is why down-scale suburbanites love Ford. Even in the 2011 federal conservative breakthrough, the CPC never won Toronto ridings overwhelmingly, and their gains in places like York or Scarborough were more cracks than clean sweeps. Again, class seems to explain the different pattern of support for the CPC and Ford. Note the CPC won high-income Don Valley while it was a John Tory stronghold.
The Liberals and NDP do have a much better hold on lower-class suburbs than municipal progressives. Many Ford supporters aren't engaged beyond the special place they hold for the Fords in their hearts, even if the Fords are still filthy rich themselves. Urban populism isn't something the PCs or CPCs can wield and again different issues cause these voters to side with other parties. I would imagine it's much harder to convince voters that say, Hudak would be best for the working class.

[Boston Bread]

Also Ford Nation doesn't use transit plays a role in their localized support for right-wingers. At the municipal levels they don't want to pay for it but are willing to pay for provincial education, health care etc that they feel like they can benefit from.
The opposition to transit is a tad crazy. I know in my city most don't use transit but even then the one anti-LRT candidate had support levels in the teens.
And why minorities disproportionally take this position is also confusing.

[Boston Bread]

Proof that electing school board trustees is a waste of time. Last election, a candidate was elected to the Catholic board just because he had the same name as a famous local politician.

A 20-year old Mike Ford with only a high school diploma and family business experience defeated a highly-qualified, experienced, centre-right incumbent in Toronto city council. That Ford barely even campaigned. Democracy just doesn't work when voters don't understand their options. Downballot municipal elections suffer from this.

[Boston Bread]

Only a matter of time before they start doing so on the federal and provincial levels.

Assuming immigrants start voting like whites, these voters are still more urban than whites at large. Wouldn't the issues that make urban whites vote left still make them lean left too? Social issues aren't a permanent cure for CPC since their relevance fades over time. Even then identity politics still favour Liberals more than other parties among immigrants.

[Boston Bread]

Another impression I got was that Chow was unfairly treated by the media and by both her supporters (who thought she was too moderate/not inspiring) and her opponents (who saw her as an extremist). Really these claims can be lobbed at any politician but it seems Chow was held up to a higher standard than her opponents even as she polled third. It's unfortunate but race, and gender to smaller extent, may have played a role. Like that cartoon where she held Jack Layton's empty suit. Not even Canada is out of the loop on that issue yet.