Ontario municipal elections, (October 27, 2014) - Master thread

[lilTommy]

Still really early, so most of the Mayoral races are speculations unless they have declared in the Media (like Stintz and Soknacki in TO) or have registered (like Ford)

Mississauga: Hurricane Hazel is not running, she's being Mississauga's only mayor (1978) and now it's wide open, three names keep coming up:
http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2013/07/15/mississauga_mayor_race_heating_up.html

Steve Mahoney - Former everything (MP, MPP, Councillor)
Bonnie Crombie - Current councillor and former MP
Carolyn Parrish - Former Councillor and MP
... All former Liberals and MPs odd eh

Hamilton: No reason why Bratina wouldn't run again, 2010 was his first term. There are a slew of declared candidates too. (Liberal, taking some slack for being too close and open about supporting the Liberals)
Fred Eisenberger - Former Mayor (Bratina defeated) (Conservative, odd he won the mayors race at all, but he was a 1 term mayor)
Brian McHattie - Current Councillor (NDP member i believe)
... wiki has a pretty detailed page up, i didn't list the others since these are potentials.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamilton,_Ontario_municipal_election,_2014

[lilTommy]

Even though he's a Tory, Eisneberger won because NDP MP David Chistopherson endorsed him.

First I heard McCallion is not running for election. I guess anyone who has wanted the job for the last 35 years is going to come out of the wood work? I hope Parrish runs for the lolz.

Wonder if Christopherson's endorsement was a personal one? Seeing that the mayor Eisenberger defeated (Di Ianni) defeated Christopherson in 2003. Otherwise, David needs a slap for going with a conservative!

[lilTommy]

http://www.torontolife.com/informer/toronto-election-2014/2014/01/02/also-running-municipal-seats-2014-musicians-marijuana-activists-dmitri-lover/

Mostly fringe/non-contender candidates except for possibly the last two:

7. Lekan Olawoye
On the brighter side, day one of the election has also brought out some lesser-known candidates who seem to have real qualifications, like Lekan Olawoye, executive director of the For Youth Initiative. He’s running for council in Ward 12, where he’ll likely be competing against Frank DiGiorgio, one of Rob Ford’s few remaining council allies. DiGiorgio hasn’t yet registered as a candidate.
- sounds like a good candidate, it's heavily Portuguese/Italian but also heavy immigrant area, Di Giorgio and Olawoye both have their potential core groups. Will Di Giorgio be hurt by his Ford ties?

8. Alex Mazer
Another interesting day-one candidate is Alex Mazer, who’s running in Ward 18. He has a history of activism on municipal budget issues, and he used to be a director of policy at the Ontario Ministry of Finance.
- Two "Liberals" battling (thus far) but he leans more progressive then Bailiao http://torontoist.com/2014/01/meet-a-council-candidate-alex-mazer-ward-18/

[lilTommy]

Not sure if hes would be considered a serious contender or not but Michael Laxer is running again for ward 6
http://mlaxer.blogspot.ca/2014/01/michael-laxer-for-city-councillor-ward.html
He twice ran for the NDP in Scarborough ridings, was infamous in the NDP for creating the Ginger Group, which he and the group left the party to form the Socialist Party of Ontario. He only got 3% in 2010 and Mark Grimes (incumbent) will probably run again.

[lilTommy]

Forum "poll" has Ford up 35-30-22 over Chow and Tory.

All I'm interested in right now is a poll of just a head to head of Ford vs. Chow since I'm convinced that come Election Day, they will be the only two candidates still in the race

Endorsements have started
http://m.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/former-mlse-president-i-know-who-can-start-rebuilding-toronto/article16384702/?service=mobile
Odd it's a businessman who is supporting Chow!

[lilTommy]

I have a Facebook friend who's decided to run for Ottawa City Council (signing up on friday), In Ward 22 (Gloucester-South Nepean) Kevin Fulsom
From what I know he's a NDP'er, at least a supporter. But sounds like he will run a moderate-progressive campaign, for that ward i think that might be a good idea no? Also said his grandfather was mayor of Ottawa at once point?

Here's what he wrote for what he plans to run on: (Ottawan you can chim in here)
" I think democratic reform is very important. The mayor and council should be able to be recalled by the electorate for a start. All city assets, like Hydro Ottawa, should have elected management boards. City management should probably become elected positions again, as they were in the past (they were called Controllers - a position my grandfather held in Ottawa before becoming mayor) However, as of now these issues, along with my environmental concerns haven't made it onto the key list of commitments. They may, as the campaign unfolds, depending on what I hear from residents about what matters to them. I will detail my position on every municipal topic on my upcoming website over time. I will also be making videos discussing my opinions starting this weekend. Here are a few items that will be featured most definitely.

• No new tax increases. Work within our existing financial framework to find sustainable, long-term solutions to city funding.
• Reign in the Sunshiners. No new wage increases for city employees earning more than $80,000 and cuts for those earning over $100,000. Money saved can be put towards infrastructure, community spaces, affordable childcare, profit generating investments and other priorities.
• Cut council and mayor salaries by 10%. Set an example for municipal employees to follow. Tie any future raises to rises in the median household income for residents of the city.
• Keep essential services affordable. Stop the extortionist annual increase to water and sewer bills and freeze OC Transpo fees at current levels. Lobby the provincial government on electricity rates and ensure that Hydro Ottawa does not implement any new fees on its end.
• Establish alternative revenue sources. Transform the city’s revenue and assets into productive capital by investing in local business, starting joint ventures, and building community owned, revenue-oriented businesses that can help create a more vibrant local economy and generate revenue for the city. Profits from these ventures can subsidize the city’s key priorities, effectively increasing the city’s budget without increasing taxes or fees for essential services.
• Expand non-profit childcare spaces. Ward 22 is full of new families trying to juggle work and family and waiting lists for existing facilities can be daunting.
• Create mid-sized entertainment facilities in every community. Diverse community centers that combine libraries, gyms, and social entertainment space for movies, games and local events should be brought to every community in the ward. A safe space for children, teens and adults to gather, make friends, and have fun in a diversified environment that brings together fitness, education, socialization and relaxation."

[lilTommy]

Diane Deans is the councillor there, and she is the de-facto leader of the opposition on council (from the left), so I'm not sure what the point of his candidacy is. Deans may be a Liberal, but she is at least left of centre. 

Wait, I looked it up the Councillor and it says its Steve Desroches; it (http://ottawa.ca/en/city-hall/your-city-government/city-wards) says Diana Deans is in Ward 10 Gloucester-Southgate...

[lilTommy]

Oops, I was thinking of Gloucester-Southgate!

Desroches is retiring, so it's an open seat.  The ward is very suburban, so not very friendly to progressives. 

Makes sense... but if you read over what he "says" hes going to run on, it feels very moderate, in fact populist in the "control public spending" type of way. Well I hope he does well, since it will be an uphill but open seats, anything can happen and Councillors can win with small %s take Wong-Tam here in Toronto, in 2010 she won ward 27 with less then 30% (very packed field 15 candidates)

[lilTommy]

Anything is possible, but the ward is in the heart of conservative suburbia.  This reminds me of one of the things I'd like to do is show the transposition of the 2011 federal election results by ward (Toronto & Ottawa).

Speaking of the Ottawa election, conservative mayoral candidate Mike Maguire has a website: http://www.mikeformayor.ca/

Can that not be easily done with TO, the wards match almost the federal ridings just split in half.

[lilTommy]

Irony alert: Ford blasting Tory for being a sexist 1%.

... Pot calling the kettle black

[lilTommy]

Chow's entering tomorrow and resigning her seat. From the Globe - can't link because I've used up my 10 free articles already.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/toronto/olivia-chow-jumps-into-toronto-mayoral-contest/article17449400/

[lilTommy]

Chow's not really seen as a populist. Ford Nation considers her a "downtown elite". I could see her picking up some Chinese Ford voters, but that's it.

I was opposed to amalgamation in the 1990s, but it's pretty hard to put back at this point.  I think what is needed is some budgets and powers given to the community councils, a proposal suggested by Joe Pantalone in the last election.

Hamilton and Ottawa I would argue were worse, given that at least Metro Toronto was entirely urbanized and Hamilton and Ottawa include a lot of exurban territory.

It is likely too late, I agree. I think adopting borough councils would be the best plan. Dividing the city into boroughs has been discussed here a bit.

I definitely feel boroughs would do wonders for Toronto, and even Hamilton and Ottawa possibly... as well as having specific "part-time" borough only Councillors, elected borough wide perhaps as opposed to individual single-member wards. Anywho... i don't see anyone campaigning on that, shame.

It looks like Olivia has learned, and taken notes from Nenshi and Millers on building cross-party teams. Apparently Olivia Chows rally in North York (which i missed!) was packed and diverse.

[lilTommy]

If we were to have a New York-type borough system I'd break the city into Toronto (including York/East York), North York, Etobicoke and Scarborough.

What would a London/Montreal-type borough system look like? 

I would rather more borough's... Roughly; North Etobicoke, South Etobicoke, Old Fort York-High Park, Beaches-Riverdale-East York, York-East Humber, North York, Rosedale-Forrest Hill, Don Valley, Scarborough Bluffs, North Scarborough, Rouge Valley.
Something like that

[lilTommy]

Soknacki is proposing giving the Community Councils more powers/authority over how their revenues are spent; also mandate equal representation on the executive based on the Community Council and the CC itself would elect who them want on the executive... well done, I think this is a very good idea... ehemm Chow, steal this (If elected)!

http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/03/14/david-soknacki-proposes-different-tax-levels-based-on-where-in-toronto-you-live/

[lilTommy]

There is a Brampton poll:

39% - Linda Jeffrey (former, just, OLP MPP, resigned to run)
26% - John Sanderson (Councillor)
18% - Susan Fennell (Incumbent, a number of spending controversies around her, also Canada's highest paid mayor I believe, 200K+)
17% - Don't know

http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2014/04/29/poll_finds_brampton_mayor_susan_fennell_a_distant_third.html

[lilTommy]

New Toronto poll:
Rob Ford drops to third place (22%), behind Olivia Chow (33%) and rising John Tory (27%) http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2014/05/02/majority_of_toronto_residents_think_rob_ford_should_resign_poll.html

[lilTommy]

Forum: Chow up 38/27/20.

You would think Stintz would get some kick in support since Ford has been MIAA (hazzah, ok bad job)
38/28 is a much bigger margin in favour of Chow then i would have expected, especially given during this time Tory made his huge transit announcement of a non-relief line-line. I was worried Tory was going to get bumped into the lead but not by the looks of this. I think we've been right that it looks like Fords base is about 20% his been nowhere and little chatter about him (only a few rambling stories and a shocking shirtless pic)

In a five way match in which all the major contenders run, including Rob Ford, Olivia Cow wins with close to 4-in-10 votes (38%) to 3-in-10 for Tory (28%). In this race, Rob Ford takes one fifth of the vote (20%), and David Soknacki (5%) and Karen Stintz do not contend (4%).
In a four way race without Mayor Ford, Chow wins again with 4-in-10 votes (40%) to one third for Tory (33%). Soknacki (5%) and Stintz (4%) trail.
In a three way race in which just the major contenders run, Chow takes more than 4-in-10 votes (42%) to 3-in-10 for Tory (30%), Ford is third with just less than a quarter of the vote (22%).
In a straight-up two way race between John Tory and Olivia Chow, the latter wins with close to half the vote (47%) to 4-in-10 for Tory (39%). In this race, one seventh don't know who to support (15%) and these are mainly Rob Ford supporters.

- Chow wins no matter what the race looks like, So her plan of focusing outside her base of the DT looks to be paying off no? They breakdown Fords vote but not anyone elses, so we don't know if Ford leads anywhere, possibly Scarborough where he is at 32% or where Chow leads (i'd assume everywhere minus Scarb. possibly)

[lilTommy]

After everything in the past four years, at long last, Ford is still at 27%?

I'm happy Chow's in the lead, but I have a hard time calling this information 'good news'. *sigh*.

When Ford was at "rehad" *cough-the-cottage-cough* and nowhere, only one news story, no one was talking about him much, he still had 20% in that last poll. I Think we can safely assume that's roughly his base; Ford will be either second or third in October... bar anything major happening to him... like being arrested

[lilTommy]

Ottawa news... Alex Cullen, former Councillor 2000-2010 for Bay Ward and recent NDP candidate in Ottawa West - Nepean is running again for Council (just registered, read via Facebook)

[lilTommy]

Forum-TO: Chow 29, Tory 28, Ford 27, Stintz 6, Soknacki 5.

Chow's lead widdens... slightly, When just the three leading candidates are tested, Olivia Chow prevails (35%) against John Tory (32%) and Rob Ford (27%).
Notice Ford's number don't move; This will be a fight for who can win votes from Stintz and Soknacki and if anyone can pull from Ford will win out, you'd think that would be Tory but based on the strengths of each
"The poll suggests Ford is strong in Scarborough, among low-income voters, among voters with little education, and among people of Caribbean background, though the Caribbean sample was small. Chow is strong with younger, lower-income downtown voters and Tory with older, higher-income suburban voters." I don't see Fords low-incomers going Tory so much, but I don't necessarily see them going on-mass to Chow either. No one is going to win over 40%, its 2003 again

[lilTommy]

No one is going to win over 40%, its 2003 again

In 2003, Miller won with 43% of the vote

I stand corrected; this will be closer then 2003, but along the same lines of a three way race except I don't expect the epic fall to happen to Ford like what happened to Hall.

Well; Ford Dippers are many of the low-income, under-edicated working class populists that "tax slogans" work on; it would be similar to the working class folk who always voted Labour but now vote UKIP or in France, where old Communists now vote FN... it's dumb, but happens

[lilTommy]

old Communists now vote FN

No.

This is the perception I've been reading, sorry its the newer generation rather then the old guard...
"What’s more, the party (FN) now achieves support among a generation which might have once been expected to be out protesting against it, polling best among young people and the working class. Many of the latter represent a significant loss for the Left, and particularly the far-left party of Jean-Luc Melenchon"
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/05/front-national-s-success-france-shows-protest-votes-can-no-longer-be-easily

[lilTommy]

old Communists now vote FN

No.

This is the perception I've been reading, sorry its the newer generation rather then the old guard...
"What’s more, the party (FN) now achieves support among a generation which might have once been expected to be out protesting against it, polling best among young people and the working class. Many of the latter represent a significant loss for the Left, and particularly the far-left party of Jean-Luc Melenchon"
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/05/front-national-s-success-france-shows-protest-votes-can-no-longer-be-easily

Well, obviously journalists (especially foreign ones) have absolutely no clue what they're talking about, especially as it concerns the FN's electorate. They're always looking for a way to sneak in their favourite myth about 'extremes meeting extremes' or some kind of 'populist alliance', or they just grasp at straws and/or build totally implausible/blatantly false theories. That being said, nothing in what you quoted actually says that the FN is gaining from the far-left/PCF. Please, for the love of all that is good, don't trust journalists (foreign or domestic) with their flimsy electoral 'analyses' or anything of that kind.

If you look at serious academic literature on the topic, all agree that the 'Commies voting FN' theory is total junk and that the actual direct transfers, at any point in time, from the hard left to the far-right are very small to statistically insignificant. Of course, 2012 was somewhat different in that Panzergirl's electorate was rather different from the Panzerdaddy electorate pre-2007 and Mélenchon's vote was actually very spatially different from the traditional PCF vote when you looked at the details, but I've seen nothing which leads me to believe that the literature may be outdated. (Partial) Correlation of FN support with historic PCF support does not equal causation. This is not to deny that there is something called gaucho-lepénisme, but even that is often misconstrued as just left-wingers voting for the far-right, when in fact the phenomenon is far more complex than that, and should more accurately be known as ninisme as Nonna Mayer very aptly branded it as in 2002.

Thanks! damned journalist looking for the quick-easy answer!

back to Ontario, I think King and DL are right, Soknacki will endorse Chow (if he bows out) and I think most of his voters will shift to Chow as the policies are very similar... and I think he appeals to the non-NDP Hipster-anti-ford group. The other thing is where does Stintz 5-6% go? My feeling is Tory, but will she stick it out?

Not sure if talked a lot about Hamilton, it's an open mayors race as one term Bratina is not running again, instead he will go up against David Christopherson in the federal seat of Hamilton Centre in 2015.
Wiki told me these are the candidates:
Brian McHattie - Ward 1 councillor, NDP, pro-LRT
Michael Baldasaro - leader of a religious sect Church of the Universe, marijuana activist         
Ejaz Butt - Taxi Workers Union President
Mike Clancy         
Brad Clark - Ward 9 Councillor, former PC MPP, Harris Cabinet minister      
Fred Eisenberger - Former Mayor, Conservative
Nick Iamonico         
Crystal Lavigne

[lilTommy]

The other thing is where does Stintz 5-6% go? My feeling is Tory, but will she stick it out?

I'm not so sure about that - some of the relatively small number of people parked with Stintz like her because she's a woman and because she was depicted as having a stood up to Ford - so I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of her vote - such that it exists - would go to Chow, especially given the surprising animosity between her and Tory lately - she really tore into him at the last debate.

This would be good news for Chow; If Soknacki's voters and Stintz's look to migrate to Chow (if those two bow out) she has the most potential to grow her support. 

[lilTommy]

Stintz is done, she's pulled out of the mayors race and her political career is over:
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/08/21/karen-stintz-toronto-mayoral-race-2014_n_5697512.html?utm_hp_ref=canada-politics

no endorsement of any other candidate... yet