Ontario municipal elections, (October 27, 2014) - Master thread

[Hatman 🍁]

Elections wont be until October 27, but nominations begun today.

The Toronto mayoral election has its own thread, so this can be for everything but the Toronto mayor race.

I'll start with Ottawa, my municipality.

Mayor Jim Watson (former Liberal MPP and provincial cabinet minister) who was elected as mayor in 2010 (defeating the previous mayor, conservative Larry O'Brien also served as mayor from 1997-2000) is running again. He hasn't been nominated yet, but has declared his intentions. Watson is very centrist and pragmatic, and is very community oriented. For that reason, he's quite popular, so I doubt anyone of any significance will run against him.

On City Council, Watson fan-boy Steve Derosches (Gloucester-South Nepean, a suburban Ward) is the only councillor who has definitively stated he is not running again, because he promised to only serve two terms.  Only one person has been nominated so far this morning, in Innes Ward (I believe this is Hashemite's ward), Roland Stieda. The councillor there is Rainer Bloess (a Liberal), and is quite popular.

[Hatman 🍁]

Actually, I'll mention Toronto's mayor race for now.

Already, eight candidates have been nominated for mayor, including Rob Ford. Also, someone named Al Gore is running. lol

[Hatman 🍁]

Even though he's a Tory, Eisneberger won because NDP MP David Chistopherson endorsed him.

First I heard McCallion is not running for election. I guess anyone who has wanted the job for the last 35 years is going to come out of the wood work? I hope Parrish runs for the lolz.

[Hatman 🍁]

That was a weird election:

[Hatman 🍁]

I can't say I follow Hamilton politics closely, but I believe that Di Ianno was the more auto-oriented candidate on planning issues in that election.

Hmm. So the Conservative suburbs + Downtown non-commuters backed Eisenberger while the left of centre-yet-commuters in Hamilton Mountain backed Di Ianni...

[Hatman 🍁]

15 candidates for mayor of Toronto now.

[Hatman 🍁]

Read in the paper today that Mike Maguire will be running for mayor of Ottawa. He's a conservative living in one of the rural communities (Kars). He ran for mayor in 2010, finishing 5th (strongest of the "fringe candidates").

Due to the huge rural-urban political divide in the city, he could possibly win all three rural wards despite the popularity of mayor Watson. He should at least win his home ward of Rideau-Goulbourn.

[Hatman 🍁]

In Hamilton, there are two confirmed candidates:

Michaerl Baldasaro and Brian McHattie. McHattie is a city councillor, as lil Tommy mentioned and according to Wikipedia is indeed a New Democrat. Baldasaro is a perennial candidate in the city. He's run in every election except one since 1984.

[Hatman 🍁]

Toronto Ward map, for those who haven't memorized where every ward is (I hope the next re-draw will give the wards geographical names, that aren't the riding names)

[Hatman 🍁]

You could always give them informal geographical names. They're logical enough to do that without pain.

You had to tempt me, didn't you?

Here goes:

1 - Rexdale
2 - Woodbine-Etobicoke North
3 - Etobicoke West
4 - Etobicoke-Humber
5 - Islington
6 - Lakeshore
7 - Yorkview
8 - University Heights
9 - Downsview
10 - Wilson Heights
11 - York South-Weston
12 - Black Creek-Lawrence
13 - High Park
14 - Parkdale
15 - Eglinton-Lawrence West
16 - Eglinton-Lawrence East
17 - Davenport North
18 - Davenport South
19 - Trinity
20 - Spadina
21 - St. Paul's West
22 - St. Paul's East
23 - Willowdale
24 - Newtonbrook-Hillcrest Village
25 - York Mills
26 - Don Valley South
27 - Rosedale
28 - Toronto Centre
29 - Danforth
30 - Riverdale
31 - Woodbine-East York
32 - Beaches
33 - Oriole
34 - Don Valley East
35 - Scarborough-Warden
36 - Scarborough Bluffs
37 - Scarborough-Wexford
38 - Scarborough Centre
39 - Scarborough-Agincourt North
40 - Scarborough-Agincourt South
41 - Scarborough-Woodside
42 - Scarborough-Rouge River
43 - Scarborough-Morningside-Guildwood
44 - Scarborough-Rouge Hill

[Hatman 🍁]

Here is your guide to the Ottawa election:

The city of Ottawa with its current boundaries was formed in 2001 upon the amalgamation of 11 municipalities + the Regional Municipality of Ottawa-Carleton (RMOC). The first election was held in 2000, with the victors beginning their terms Jan. 1, 2001 when the city's new boundaries came into affect.

2000 election



Race was between RMOC Chair (basically like the mayor of the region) Bob Chiarelli (red on map) and Gloucester (one of the amalgamated municipalities) mayor Claudette Cain (blue on map).  Chiarelli was a former Liberal MPP, and currently is now a Liberal MPP once again (and provincial cabinet minister). I don't remember much about Cain, but the map shows there wasn't much ideological differences between them. Cain's strength came from her former city and in francophone areas in the east end. Chiarelli's strength was in the west end, where he comes from (he represent(ed/s) Ottawa West-Nepean). Chiarelli won the election 56%-41%.


2003 election


Chiarelli ran for re-election, and was quite popular, so no one major ran against him. His main opponent was Terry Kilrea, a loud mouth conservative- whose last name is well known in the city (his uncle is a legendary junior hockey coach). The results map shows the ideological split in the city between the moderate to left wing urban areas and the right wing rural areas. Chiarelli defeated Kilrea 57%-36%


2006 election


By 2006, the city grew tired of Chiarelli, which opened the door to popular left wing councillor Alex Munter. The openly gay Munter, represented the normally right of centre Kanata Ward on city council, but was quite popular there. He had been in municipal politics since he was 23, and ran for the NDP in the 1990 provincial election at the age of 22.  Munter led Chiarelli in the polls for most of the race. In the summer, conservative businessmen and also a bit of an oaf Larry O'Brien decided he wanted to enter the race. As the only credible conservative candidate in the race, he quickly gained steam, attracting Chiarelli voters who were scared of Munter winning. O'Brien pulled ahead of Munter in the polls just before the election, and ended up with a surprise victory, defeating Munter 47%-36%. Chiarelli won just 16%.  Following the election, O'Brien famously said "I fell asleep on my boat in July drinking a beer and when I woke up I was the mayor of Ottawa."

The map shows O'Brien (in blue) winning the conservative rural areas, but also the key swing parts of the city- the suburbs. Munter (in green) won the left leaning core of the city as well as his (former) home of Kanata (now split into 2 wards).


2010


Predictably, the O'Brien mayoralty was a disaster, with one gaffe leading to another, and a near criminal conviction. And in true Rob Ford-like defiance, O'Brien was committed to running for re-election. This of course led to many credible candidates entering the race. The clear frontrunner was Liberal MPP and provincial cabinet minister Jim Watson, who had previously served as mayor of the old city of Ottawa from 1996 to 2000. Also entering the race was left leaning city councillor Clive Doucet and at the last minute, former RMOC chair and really old man, Andy Haydon (whom the council chambers were named for). Another left wing councillor (former Liberal turned NDP MPP Alex Cullen) had also entered the race, but dropped out after Doucet proved to be more popular. Despite Doucet's and Haydon's candidacies, the true race was between Watson and O'Brien.  On election day, Watson won 49%, more than twice as much as O'Brien, who won 24%. Doucet won 15% and Haydon 7%.  O'Brien (in blue) held on to 3 conservative rural wards, while Watson (in red) won everywhere else handily, including Doucet's ward (where Watson had been a councillor as well, in the 1990s).

Next: Ward profiles.

[Hatman 🍁]

You could always give them informal geographical names. They're logical enough to do that without pain.

Actually, they already have geographical names, based upon the (90s-model) federal/provincial ridings they're created from (two per riding)

Right, but they aren't very helpful. Calling Ward 28 "Toronto Centre-Rosedale" is a very ridiculous notion, for example.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ottawa ward profiles (1 through :



1 - Orleans: Suburban ward in the far east end. Makes up about half of the actual Orleans suburb, and mostly consists of the older neighbourhoods (old in this case being the 1960s and 1970s). The ward spans the former cities of of Gloucester and Cumberland.

The ward is entirely located in the riding of Ottawa-Orleans, which is held by the Conservatives federally and the Liberals provincially. The ward is represented by Bob Monette, who is a conservative (formerly Liberal).


2 - Innes Another suburban ward in the far east end. It contains the southwestern quarter of Orleans and a smaller suburban community called Blackburn Hamlet. The Orleans portion of the ward contains some older (60s and 70s) suburban homes, and newer developments as well that are still being built today. Blackburn Hamlet was also built in the 1960s and 1970s. The ward is named for the major road connecting the ward, Innes Rd.

The ward is located entirely within the former city of Gloucester and the riding of Ottawa-Orleans. The ward is represented by a Liberal, Rainer Bloess.


3 - Barrhaven Another suburban ward, this time located in the southwest part of the city. The ward contains the older section of the Barrhaven community, but contains newer areas as well, that are still being built. The older part of Barrhaven was first built in the 1960s. The ward is located in the former city of Nepean.

Barrhaven can be found in the riding of Nepean-Carleton, which is a safe Tory riding both federally and provincially. Barrhaven's councillor is the conservative leaning Jan Harder.


4 - Kanata North Yet another suburban ward, located in the far west end of the city. It contains the northern half of the Kanata community. The ward contains the oldest neighbourhood in Kanata, Beaverbrook- built in the 1960s. It also contains newer developments that are still being built today. The ward is located in the former city of Kanata.

Kanata North can be found in the riding of Carleton-Mississippi Mills, which is a safe conservative seat at both levels. However, its councillor is a Liberal, Marianne Wilkinson (but she's a former Tory).


5 - West Carleton-March This is a rural ward, containing all of the rural area in the northwest corner of the city, north of Kanata. The ward contains mostly rural communities such as Carp, Constance Bay and Fitzroy Harbour. The ward is named after the former West Carleton Township, and March Township which was what Kanata would later me carved out of. The ward contains almost all of West Carleton Township, and the rural northern part of the former city of Kanata.

The ward is located in Carleton-Mississippi Mills riding. It is represented by Eli El Chantiry, a right wing (aka conservative voting record, but not conservative in rhetoric) Liberal.

6 - Stittsville Ward Back to the suburbs now. Stittsville is a suburban community located just southwest of Kanata. Stittsville was a small village for a long time until suburban growth began in the 1970s. It continues to grow today. The ward is located in the former Township of Goulbourn and is also located in Carleton-Mississippi Mills.  Its councillor is Shad Qadri, who is centre-right.

7 - Bay Ward This is a more urban ward in Ottawa's west end, running along the Ottawa River, wrapping around a number of bays in the river, namely Britannia Bay and Shirley's Bay. The ward contains some older "street car suburb" neighbourhoods such as Britannia and Carlingwood. Most of the ward is made up of post war housing, built in the 1950s and 1960s. The ward spans both the former city of Ottawa and the former city of Nepean.

Bay Ward is located in the riding of Ottawa West-Nepean which is a swing riding. Its held federally by Conservative cabinet minister John Baird and provincially by Liberal cabinet minister and former mayor Bob Chiarelli. On council, its represented by the Liberal Mark Taylor.

8 - College Ward This ward is mostly made up of post war suburban neighbourhoods, but contains some older neighbourhoods such as City View, which was built in the 1930s and 1940s and Bells Corners, which is a former village which is now much larger, but is still removed from the rest of the ward. It also contains some newer neighbourhoods such as Westcliffe Estates and Arlington Woods built in the 1970s and Centrepointe, built in the 1980s.

College Ward is named for Algonquin College, the city's main community college. It spans the former cities of Ottawa and Nepean. Most of the ward is in Ottawa West-Nepean, but Bells Corners is in Nepean-Carleton riding. The Ward is represented by right wing Liberal Rick Chiarelli.

[Hatman 🍁]

Mike Maguire is the first mayoral candidate to officially enter the race for mayor of Ottawa. I think he's going to be the only serious candidate against Watson, unless someone runs to Watson's left.

[Hatman 🍁]

Parrish isn't running for mayor? Darn.

[Hatman 🍁]

Parrish isn't running for mayor? Darn.

Would've been good entertainment from a professional RL troll.

Yes. We need some centre-left (yes, I'm admitting a Liberal is centre left!) troll mayors in Ontario to balance out the right wing trolls like Ford.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wasn't MLSE owned by the teachers unions? Not a big a jump if that's the case.

[Hatman 🍁]

Hashemite's councillor Rainer Bloess (Liberal, Innes Ward) will not be running for re-election. This means there will be at least 2 open seats in the Ottawa election.

[Hatman 🍁]

Diane Deans is the councillor there, and she is the de-facto leader of the opposition on council (from the left), so I'm not sure what the point of his candidacy is. Deans may be a Liberal, but she is at least left of centre. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Oops, I was thinking of Gloucester-Southgate!

Desroches is retiring, so it's an open seat.  The ward is very suburban, so not very friendly to progressives. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Anything is possible, but the ward is in the heart of conservative suburbia.  This reminds me of one of the things I'd like to do is show the transposition of the 2011 federal election results by ward (Toronto & Ottawa).

Speaking of the Ottawa election, conservative mayoral candidate Mike Maguire has a website: http://www.mikeformayor.ca/

[Hatman 🍁]

Anything is possible, but the ward is in the heart of conservative suburbia.  This reminds me of one of the things I'd like to do is show the transposition of the 2011 federal election results by ward (Toronto & Ottawa).

Speaking of the Ottawa election, conservative mayoral candidate Mike Maguire has a website: http://www.mikeformayor.ca/

Can that not be easily done with TO, the wards match almost the federal ridings just split in half.

They don't actually, as they match the 1996 representation order ridings in half.

[Hatman 🍁]

In Ottawa's Innes ward Jody Mitic is a candidate. I know nothing about Ottawa politics but he was on The Amazing race Canada. he is the former army sniper with prostetic legs.

I read in Orléans ward Bob Monette is running again. He had stated he would go after two mandates but changed mind.

Innes is an open seat, but I don't know Mitic, as I dont watch that show.

Monette is a bit of a terrible person, or at least his politics are terrible (side note: my mother and his wife used to work with eachother)  He used to be a Liberal, but he's a true blue Conservative now. Whenever he opens his mouth about something political, I usually feel quite revolted.

[Hatman 🍁]

New FR poll:

Chow - 31
Ford - 31
Tory - 27

Tory's candidacy hurts Chow the most, as the battle is for non-Ford voters, as Ford nation will back him no matter what. The more candidates that run, the better shot Ford has of winning.

[Hatman 🍁]

There's no such thing as a soft Ford voter. No one is close to being undecided about Ford. Either you love him or you hate him.

There will be far more Chow - Tory swing voters (They are called Liberals, of which there are many in Toronto ) than Tory - Ford.  

As odd as it seems, John Tory is a threat to Chow, so she needs to work on winning over Liberals. Being ahead of Tory in the polls will certainly help. She better jump in soon before Tory becomes the de facto non-Ford candidate. Luckily, Tory has a ceiling of his own due to not being able to access most right wing Toronto voters (many of whom would probably stay home to be honest, if Ford wasn't on the ballot, and Tory was)