2004: Mission Accomplished!

[Maxwell]

Mission Accomplished

President Bush not running for re-election

May 2003 - Like James Polk before him, President Bush has announced that, along with ending major combat operations in Iraq, he would not be running for a second term. This has opened the field wide open for potential Republican Presidential candidates. Several names are rising through the cracks, with frontrunners being Virginia Senator George Allen, Majority Leader Bill Frist, Vice President Dick Cheney, and Arizona Senator John McCain. This came as a shock to everyone, and it looks like it'll be difficult for these candidates to get their funds and campaigns together. Not everyone, however, is so behind on the times.

Little Known Texas Congressman Ron Paul announces Presidential run



"This President has been pushing more and more big government, and I think we need to look at the results of that. We are heading for crisis if we do not turn around and look at what we've done. It's the same policies and we are heading for a disaster."

Alan Keyes jumps into the race!



"There is the same conversation in the party that goes in circles and circles, a constant capitulation of ideals in favor of electibility. I will not back down, I will fight on principle, and if you vote for me, you know what you are getting. Freeing yourselves of the influence of liberalism is the first step to enlightenment."

Bush is out!



"Look, I'm not running. Florida is keeping me busy enough. I will endorse someone when the time comes, but at this point, it's early, we are still digging through the candidates."

Early Polling: Allen's the favorite, McCain in 2nd

May 2003 - George Allen has consistently denied a bid for the Presidency, but early polling shows he would start off strong, at the top of the field. McCain has strong numbers, but barely holds on to a moderate coalition, and all polling shows that the smaller the field gets, the weaker McCain's chances get. With conservatives, McCain is persona non grata, voting against the Bush tax cuts and pushing a campaign finance bill, it's hard to see how he lasts into the later season.

Dick Cheney has the highest raw favorability numbers, but he has a lot of negatives as well, so the most favorable person is actually New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, even though he is not one of the top tier candidates. John McCain's favorability numbers are in shambles among Republicans, but he does better across the board.

National Republican Primary Poll:
25% Senator George Allen
22% Senator John McCain
14% Vice President Dick Cheney
8% Majority Leader Bill Frist
5% Mayor Rudy Giuliani
4% Congressman J.C. Watts
2% Congressman Ron Paul
1% Commentator Alan Keyes

Favorability Ratings (Among Party):
59/10 Senator George Allen
48/38 Senator John McCain
63/26 Vice President Dick Cheney
52/22 Majority Leader Bill Frist
62/5 Mayor Rudy Giuliani
39/11 Congressman J.C. Watts
4/12 Congressman Ron Paul
2/19 Commentator Alan Keyes

Candidates currently in the race are in italics.

[DKrol]

You have my attention, good sir.

[Dancing with Myself]

Yes this has potential keep it up!

[Maxwell]

June Announcements:

George Allen's In!



"President Bush's accomplishments in his first term as President are numerous: uniting America in a post-9/11 world, fighting terror, putting deadly leaders in Iraq on trial, and cutting taxes so job creators can make America a competitive place in the world. I will only continue this agenda, and push for more of the good of this administration! That's why I am announcing my candidacy for President of the United States in 2004!"

John McCain comes to the forefront!



"We don't need more party linemen, we need more people willing to fight the good fight, to step beyond the party line, and to act. This country needs bold, brave leadership, and I have the skills to do it. As a representing voice of the American people, we can change the regular order in Washington, and I am willing to lead that charge!"

Former Governor John Engler announces exploratory committee



"If I am going to run for President, it will be on a platform of addressing serious concerns in our social security system. Let's face it: it's going to go broke in a couple of years. I have innovative, new ideas to fix the system, without sacrificing the program itself. The future of America depends on it."

Congressman J.C. Watts announces exploratory committee!



"I see the black people of America, and they don't look toward the GOP for answers. I always have to ask them why: and the answer seems to be a couple of tiers. Well, I want to get the message loud and clear to my people that the Democrats are not a welcome place for blacks! They do not get to the heart of the problems in America, and the Republican party does. Getting that message out there is the reason for this exploratory committee"

The Month of June: Candidates getting off their asses

June 2003 - With the surprise of Bush still in the air, candidates are frantically getting things together. Senator George Allen, the frontrunner as of this point, has announced his candidacy for President. What's strange about his campaign is the infrastructure: Allen is not set up well in Iowa or New Hampshire. Instead, he has his sights on a win in South Carolina bringing him to the nomination. When asked why, his campaign manager replied: "No Republican Nominee has won the nod without South Carolina, plain and simple." This may be true, but stands as an odd strategy in todays climate.

John McCain, on the other hand, is erring on the safe side in terms of states. The McCain infrastructure in Iowa is empty, and there is very little sign that it will build up at any point. However, his infrastructure in New Hampshire is already building and solid, and it looks like New Hampshire will be the place for John McCain to shine once again. The question will be is it enough, and if 2000 is anything to note, it might not be. However, McCain folks are optimistic that times are different now.

In the dark horse category, filed under huh, is Former Michigan Governor John Engler. After leaving office, he has spoken on the solvency of Social Security, and from the looks of it, his campaign will be a focus on those programs. That didn't work out well for Pete DuPont, but Engler seems keenly aware of that situation, but knows he can be different. Engler has stated; "Well, I started behind before, and during my terms as Michigan Governor, started behind many times, but I've gotten to where I am through the work effort I have put in, and I think where I started will have no effect on where I end."

Another, slightly lighter dark horse is Congressman J.C. Watts. Like Engler, represents sort of a single issue campaign, but unlike Engler, has the sort of wayward movement that could make him something hard to compete with. His efforts are strong in Iowa, and he has visited the state more than any of the currently mentioned candidate, and his efforts are being rewarded (besides Oklahoma, Iowa is the only state where Watts is in double digits).

Nationally, the trend continues of McCain is slipping and Allen reaping the benefits, but there seems to be more beyond the surface...

National Republican Primary Poll:
26% Senator George Allen
18% Senator John McCain
13% Vice President Dick Cheney
9% Majority Leader Bill Frist
7% Congressman J.C. Watts
4% Governor John Engler
2% Congressman Ron Paul
1% Commentator Alan Keyes

Iowa Republican Primary Poll:
29% Senator George Allen
16% Vice President Dick Cheney
13% Congressman J.C. Watts
10% Majority Leader Bill Frist
8% Senator John McCain
6% Governor John Engler
4% Congressman Ron Paul
2% Commentator Alan Keyes

New Hampshire Republican Primary Poll:
27% Senator John McCain
23% Senator George Allen
15% Vice President Dick Cheney
6% Majority Leader Bill Frist
3% Congressman J.C. Watts
3% Governor John Engler
2% Congressman Ron Paul
1% Commentator Alan Keyes

Senator Tom Daschle enters weak Democratic Field

June 2003 - After weeks of blech with Howard Dean holding a narrow but decisive lead over the field, Tom Daschle enters the race and shakes the entire thing up. Announcing a platform that attacks Bush's expansive deficit, increasing unemployment, and the way the Republicans are managing Iraq, Daschle moves to the top of the field immediately. However, more liberal Democrats aren't enthused, noting Daschle's palling with lobbyists, and his more moderate stances on a wide array of issues including immigration and the enviorment. With a big chunk of the Democratic electorate still undecided, Daschle's entrance doesn't change too much about the unimpressive Democratic field.

National Democratic Polls:
21% Minority Leader Tom Daschle
16% Governor Howard Dean
12% Senator John Kerry
10% Senator Joe Lieberman
6% Minority Leader Dick Gephardt
4% Senator John Edwards
2% Reverend Al Sharpton
1% Senator Bob Graham
1% Fmr. Senator Carol Mosely Braun

[tmthforu94]

I am very interested in this - would be cool to see Bush's approval ratings in the next poll. With Iraq considered to be a win and ending so quickly, along with the post 9/11 bounce, I'd expect it to be pretty high.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

I am very interested in this - would be cool to see Bush's approval ratings in the next poll. With Iraq considered to be a win and ending so quickly, along with the post 9/11 bounce, I'd expect it to be pretty high.

I don't think there was a change made in Iraq, I think that Bush just also announced that he wasn't running for re-election during his infamous "Mission Accomplished" speech. But this is a great TL so far.

[Maxwell]

I am very interested in this - would be cool to see Bush's approval ratings in the next poll. With Iraq considered to be a win and ending so quickly, along with the post 9/11 bounce, I'd expect it to be pretty high.

I don't think there was a change made in Iraq, I think that Bush just also announced that he wasn't running for re-election during his infamous "Mission Accomplished" speech. But this is a great TL so far.

Yes this is correct. The war is running the same, it's just that Bush, during his grand pronouncement, went that step further.

[Maxwell]

Later/Last Announcements:

Vice President Dick Cheney out!



"I don't desire the Presidency, I don't want it, and frankly, I don't need it. I will leave that to the people with more to prove. I've proven myself in this life."

Majority Leader Bill Frist enters the race!



"The Democratic party represents a turning back of our values. I can not, and will not, endorse such a reversal on our ideals. It's time the Republican Party stands up for families, and does so with the vigor that it requires. None of the candidates so far have addressed that as a sheer importance, which is why I believe it is my job to do so."

Health Secretary and Former Governor Tommy Thompson makes his entrance!



As does Former Senator Bob Smith of New Hampshire




And now the field is rounded out... Or is it?

July and August were rocked by two big announcements, and pushed a little by two minor announcements. Vice President Dick Cheney, whose polling numbers showed he'd start strongly but not have much room for growth, has decided not to enter the Presidential race. When asked of who to endorse, he merely said "The Campaign matters most of all, and I will be looking to that for my endorsement."

Majority Leader Bill Frist, who many insiders thought was leaning against the race, decided to make a move and enter in Cheney's absence. Frist in this race is entering as the christian right candidate, which makes his candidacy all the more formidable in Iowa, where he is strongly building his forces. In terms of resources, the campaign is starting off somewhat weak, but are catching up quick as the hiring of Campaign Manager Steve Schmidt can tell you.

And then two announcements that matter a lot less: Health and Human Services Secretary and Former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson and Former Senator Bob Smith. Thompson's announcement is a bit more major, and he has potential given his record in Wisconsin, but his campaign infrastructure is weak, and he's not exactly the most star studded candidate. Smith, on the other hand, is completely irrelevant. After his loss to Sununu, his candidacy smacks of perennial, and chances are, he'll be hanging around Ron Paul and Alan Keyes numbers.

However, still to come is the Iowa Straw Poll. With John McCain out and George Allen focusing elsewhere, it will be a horse race to see who comes out on top as the next big challenger. J.C. Watts, Tommy Thompson, and Bill Frist are noted as the top contenders, though not to be counted out are John Engler and even a candidate not already in the race, Former Undersecretary of Education Gary Bauer.

With a new poll out, Top Republicans leading Top Democrats by double digits, Allen nearly 10 points in the lead, and Bush Approvals at 60%.

National Republican Primary Poll:
28% Senator George Allen
19% Senator John McCain
14% Majority Leader Bill Frist
6% Congressman J.C. Watts
4% Former Governor John Engler
4% HHS Secretary Tommy Thompson
2% Congressman Ron Paul
2% Former Senator Bob Smith
1% Commentator Alan Keyes

Top Republicans v. Top Democrats

v. Tom Daschle

51% Senator George Allen
41% Minority Leader Tom Daschle
6% Undecided

54% Senator John McCain
36% Minority Leader Tom Daschle
9% Undecided

48% Majority Leader Bill Frist
37% Minority Leader Tom Daschle
12% Undecided

v. Howard Dean

53% Senator George Allen
35% Governor Howard Dean
10% Undecided

58% Senator John McCain
32% Governor Howard Dean
8% Undecided

54% Majority Leader Bill Frist
38% Howard Dean
5% Undecided

V. John Kerry

50% Senator George Allen
42% Senator John Kerry
6% Undecided

52% Senator John McCain
37% Senator John Kerry
7% Undecided

51% Majority Leader Bill Frist
45% Senator John Kerry
4% Undecided

Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's performance?
60% Approve
35% Disapprove
5% Unsure

Wesley Clark to endorse Tom Daschle for President

Instead of fading to the background like the last couple of Democratic frontrunners, Tom Daschle has been fighting hard to continue his narrow lead in the polls. Receiving endorsements from Democratic power brokers like Senator Patrick Leahy, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, and even Former President Bill Clinton, he has cemented himself as the establishment candidate, pushing Congressman Dick Gephardt to as much as openly contemplate his future on the campaign trail. And now he has received the endorsement of someone who very much contemplated entering the race, General Wesley Clark. This endorsement not only bodes well for Daschle in terms of less competition, but boosts his advantage in Iowa (Clark's a fan of Ethanol), where him and Howard Dean are currently in a brawl for the win.

Democratic Primary National Polling
24% Minority Leader Tom Daschle
17% Governor Howard Dean
11% Senator John Kerry
8% Senator Joe Lieberman
5% Senator John Edwards
4% Congressman Dick Gephardt
2% Senator Bob Graham
1% Reverend Al Sharpton
1% Former Senator Carol Mosely Braun

[Maxwell]

The Road to the Nomination

REPUBLICAN SIDE

November of 2003

"Let's give a welcome to Macca here! Welcome to the Real World of America!"

After months of holding large leads over Senator John McCain, footage leaks of George Allen at a rally chastising a McCain cameraman in a extremely racist manner. The blowback gets worse when Allen first denies it, then claims he made "Macca" up, then apologizes for in an insincere way. Combining that with less than stellar debate performances, and you get a candidate whose numbers are dropping like a pile of bricks. Senator Frist benefits from this, but if only it had happened later...

January of 2004

Iowa Caucus Results:
29.1% Congressman J.C. Watts
27.7% Majority Leader Bill Frist
14.2% Former Governor John Engler
9.7% Senator George Allen
9.2% Senator John McCain
7.1% Congressman Ron Paul
2.2% Former Senator Bob Smith
0.8% Ambassador Alan Keyes
0.3% Others
0.1% Former Governor Tommy Thompson

J.C. Watts, in a last ditch effort, tours around the state of Iowa, opening Campaign offices in every single county, and surprises when, after trailing in the polls by 5-10 point margins, beats the Majority Leader in a triumph. Surprises include John Engler, who wasn't much of a factor at all, and Ron Paul, who was left out of most polls. After Iowa, Tommy Thompson drops out of the race and endorses Frist, and Bob Smith drops out of the race and endorses Ron Paul.

Many McCain supporters were disappointed by the results in Iowa, but have no fear, because New Hampshire was bound to be a McCain slide. The major contest, in fact, would be the second place winner, and that's the contest that Frist, with his stronger resources, was able to compete and win.

New Hampshire Primary Results:
45.2% Senator John McCain
21.2% Majority Leader Bill Frist
12.3% Congressman J.C. Watts
10.1% Congressman Ron Paul
5.2% Former Governor John Engler
3.1% Senator George Allen
1.5% Others
1.4% Ambassador Alan Keyes

Ron Paul's surprise performance was merely a flash in the pan. With the endorsement of a Former Senator in the state, many pundits brushed it off, and gave him very little attention. Engler's prospects looked grimmer and grimmer, but from the start he had promised to make his campaign about entitlement reform, and planned ahead for his own state primary to get him some delegates and some weight. Meanwhile, South Carolina looked like the contest to be, with three candidates who were vying for their vote. McCain, while desperately unpopular with conservative Republicans, struck a cord with moderates in the party, and increasingly, the waring Watts and Frist made the primary look like an opening for McCain. There was hope.

South Carolina Poll:
27% Senator John McCain
23% Majority Leader Bill Frist
23% Congressman J.C. Watts
10% Senator George Allen
5% Former Governor John Engler
3% Congressman Ron Paul
0% Ambassador Alan Keyes
9% Undecided

National Poll:
30% Senator John McCain
25% Congressman J.C. Watts
21% Majority Leader Bill Frist
6% Former Governor John Engler
4% Senator George Allen
3% Congressman Ron Paul
1% Ambassador Alan Keyes
10% Undecided

DEMOCRAT SIDE

January of 2004

Democrats were not very excited about Minority Leader Tom Daschle, and were seeking alternatives for his nomination. However, with none coming about, he looked like a surefire winner in Iowa, and sure enough, he won the state in a big way.

Iowa Caucus Results:
42.2% Minority Leader Tom Daschle
24.8% Former Governor Howard Dean
15.3% Senator John Edwards
10.1% Congressman Dick Gephardt
3.2% Senator John Kerry
1.1% Senator Joe Lieberman
0.5% Preacher Al Sharpton

The result was surprising in some ways. Howard Dean had fallen in the polls for a while after negative advertising had backfire in a big way against Daschle, and most polls had Edwards surging to second place. However, this was considered a big win for Mr. Dean. Dean proclaimed Iowa has the center of his comeback. Edwards, meanwhile, continued to center his efforts around a very crucial win in South Carolina.

Pictured: Howard Dean's Iowa Concession Speech

"If Iowa has told us anything, it's that this campaign is going to go onward, to all of the states of America. They said we couldn't get where we are today, but we did, and we are going to do much more!"

After this result, Senator Kerry dropped out to endorse Daschle, and Gephardt did the very same thing. With most of the resources and endorsements, Daschle looked on his way to winning New Hampshire. However, there was a snag in his plans:

New Hampshire Primary Results:
43.4% Former Governor Howard Dean
31.2% Minority Leader Tom Daschle
15.2% Senator John Edwards
8.2% Senator Joe Lieberman
1.3% Preacher Al Sharpton
0.7% Others

Daschle saw this as a tiny setback to ultimately the nomination being his, and the press made much the same point. Dean, however, touted New Hampshire, and resources for his campaign began to come back, seeing him as a winner. Edwards performance did not shake him, as his numbers were robust in states like New Mexico, Oklahoma, and South Carolina, and while nothing was definite, these next few states were Edwards time to shine.

Senator Lieberman dropped out and, in a shocking move, endorsed John McCain from the other side. This move angered Democrats and put some pressure on Daschle to remove Lieberman from his chairmanships, but Daschle saw this as a conflict of interest in a way, and did no such thing.

Arizona: Lean Daschle
Delaware: Toss-Up
Missouri: Lean Daschle
New Mexico: Toss-Up
North Dakota: Definite Daschle
Oklahoma: Lean Edwards
South Carolina: Toss-Up

Pre-NH National Poll:
43% Minority Leader Daschle
18% Former Governor Howard Dean
17% Senator John Edwards
12% Senator Joe Leiberman
2% Preacher Al Sharpton
8% Undecided

Post-NH National Poll:
40% Minority Leader Daschle
27% Former Governor Howard Dean
23% Senator John Edwards
3% Preacher Al Sharpton
7% Undecided

[Donerail]

Edwardsmentum!

[TX Conservative Dem]

If Bush, Jr., didn't seek reelection in 2004, the GOP would still hold the White House that year though because they were stronger on national security than the Democrats.

[Maxwell]

REPUBLICAN SIDE

In Michigan and Florida, hope could go away from for one candidate and be gained by another. McCain has held a narrow lead in both states, and that means an ending for John Engler and a beginning for McCain as the unstoppable frontrunner. However, one of those turned out not to be...

Michigan Primary Results:
39.5% Senator John McCain
30.9% Former Governor John Engler
12.3% Majoirty Leader Bill Frist
10.1% Congressman J.C. Watts
4.2% Congressman Ron Paul
1.1% Ambassador Alan Keyes
0.9% Others

Florida Primary Results:
33.4% Majority Leader Bill Frist
32.9% Senator John McCain
20.1% Congressman J.C. Watts
9.3% Former Governor John Engler
3.2% Congressman Ron Paul
1.1% Others



"This nominating contest is far from over! We aren't stopping this train for nobody!"

McCain had been vying hard for the endorsement of Jeb Bush, but combined with his general hostility towards the Bush administration, and the fact that Bush had looked more and more favorably towards Frist, McCain failed to catch the endorsement. In addition, Watts campaign looked to lower resources in Florida in the name of cheaper primaries, allowing his numbers to sink and move toward Frist.

McCain decided at that point to stop running away from Republicanism and instead run toward it. He ran on a platform of a strong Iraq mission, applauding the administrations policy decisions on that front. He amped up his fight against pork barrell spending, criticizing both Watts and Frist for projects that they were bringing toward their states. This helped his numbers, and his Super Tuesday was helped immensely by this strategy:

Super Tuesday Results!
McCain: Alaska, Hawaii, Wyoming, Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Nevada

Frist: Alabama, Colorado, Georgia, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, Tennessee, Utah

Watts: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Missouri

Post-Super Tuesday National Poll:
46% Senator John McCain
27% Majority Leader Bill Frist
17% Congressman J.C. Watts
4% Congressman Ron Paul
6% Undecided

John McCain was looking more and more like the frontrunner, with a strong delegate lead and a growing money chest. However, Bill Frist wasn't about to let this go so easy, and very quickly after the Super Tuesday contests...

"We can not afford to let the party fall into the wrong hands. As much as I think my vision for America is the best, we can not let it stand to fall for John McCain, who has moved too far for our party to tolerate. I will be leaving this race and endorsing our Majority Leader, Senator Bill Frist, for President of the United States!"

Post-Watts National Poll:
47% Senator John McCain
41% Majority Leader Bill Frist
5% Congressman Ron Paul
7% Undecided

On the Republican side, things were still looking like all out civil war, with Frist's resources and endorsements still of abundance, and McCain still looking unacceptable even after his fight for Republican values shook up the race and won him plenty of states. It would have to take the man in the White House to change the tide of this race...

DEMOCRATIC SIDE

Minority Leader Tom Daschle was quickly losing a grip of the nomination that was almost promised to be his. Following poor debate performances and notable gaffes, he was slipping in his numbers and Howard Dean and John Edwards were quickly gaining on him. The results of the last few primaries surprised many observers:

Tom Daschle: Missouri, South Dakota
John Edwards: Oklahoma, South Carolina, Arizona, New Mexico
Howard Dean: Delaware

Post-SC National Polls:
32% Minority Leader Tom Daschle
31% Senator John Edwards
27% Former Governor Howard Dean
3% Preacher Al Sharpton
6% Undecided

Senator Edwards wowed Democratic voters. With his youth, his charisma, and his points on poverty, Senator Edwards was quickly becoming the hottest new thing for the Democratic Party. He inspired the people like no one else, and certainly not Tom Daschle. After these set of primaries, Edwards started looking like the one...

"The people have been antagonized by this administration, their lack of willingness to fight poverty, their willingness to bomb people elsewhere, and their willingness to intentionally misrepresent and misuse information. Any Republican running now would do the same. I am willing to be a change of pace for this country!"

Edwards light was starting to outshine that of Howard Dean, whose lone Delaware win caused some concern with donors. It was going to take a win in both of the next two contests in order for voters to continue to take his candidacy seriously, and unfortunately for him:

Michigan Primary Results:
36.6% Former Governor Howard Dean
31.7% Minority Leader Tom Daschle
31.3% Senator John Edwards
0.4% Others

Washington Primary Results:
36.2% Minority Leader Tom Daschle
35.7% Former Governor Howard Dean
25.9% Senator John Edwards
1.6% Preacher Al Sharpton
0.6% Others

Dean's loss in Washington would cause his candidacy to no longer be taken as seriously as the contest between Edwards v. Daschle. Despite this, Dean would still continue to be in the running, criticizing both for a perceived willingness to follow the administration on war, and Daschle for his relatively conservative immigration and energy policy views.

February 8th to Super Tuesday
Maine: Definitely Dean
Tennessee: Definitely Edwards
Virginia: Definitely Edwards
D.C.: Toss-Up
Nevada: Lean Daschle
Wisconsin: Toss-Up
Hawaii: Toss-Up
Idaho: Lean Daschle
Utah: Lean Daschle

Post-Wash/Mich National Poll:
35% Minority Leader Tom Daschle
34% Senator John Edwards
23% Former Governor Howard Dean
2% Preacher Al Sharpton
5% Undecided

[MadmanMotley]

Awesome TL! Keep it up!

[Maxwell]

Awesome TL! Keep it up!

Thank you!

If Bush, Jr., didn't seek reelection in 2004, the GOP would still hold the White House that year though because they were stronger on national security than the Democrats.

I'm not so sure, it was pretty close, and a different Democrat/Republican scenario could change things.

[Cranberry]

It's a great timeline! Keep it up!

[Maxwell]

Beginning of March, Crunch Time!

REPUBLICAN SIDE

February 9th:
Kansas: 64% Frist, 33% McCain, 3% Paul
Louisana: 70% Frist, 27% McCain, 2% Paul

February 12th:
Virginia: 53% Frist, 43% McCain, 3% Paul
Maryland: 47.5% McCain, 46.2% Frist, 4% Paul, 2% Keyes
D.C.: 50% McCain, 45% Frist, 4% Paul

February 19th:
Washington: 52% McCain, 39% Frist, 7% Paul
Wisconsin: 49% McCain, 46% Frist, 4% Paul

February 24th:
Puerto Rico: 82% McCain, 18% Frist

National Poll:
53% Senator John McCain
36% Majority Leader Bill Frist
5% Congressman Ron Paul
6% Undecided

Texas Poll:
47% Majority Leader Bill Frist
36% Senator John McCain
8% Congressman Ron Paul
9% Undecided

Ohio Poll:
47% Senator John McCain
42% Majority Leader Bill Frist
3% Congressman Ron Paul
8% Undecided

February was a good month for the McCain campaign. In spite of facing a strong challenge from Majority Leader Bill Frist, his pushing toward a strong management of the Iraq war made him more popular in the party than he had been in a long time. After losing the primary in Kansas and Louisana heavily, some worried McCain's nomination was in danger by losing the Potomac Primaries , but managed to slip by with endorsements from Senator John Warner and Governor Bob Ehlrich. While McCain trails in the Texas primary, he narrowly leads in Ohio, and run laps around Frist in the other two.

Frist says he's far from done, but the signs are there: Campaign Co-Chair and Governor of Massachussets Mitt Romney has left the campaign, and he's yet to be replaced. Frist's stump speech has suffered immensely by the last couple of primaries, and he's starting to fall behind in resources. When asked if he would accept a VP spot on the McCain ticket, there was some snap back, but also some acceptance of the possibility. Not only does Frist trail in the primary, but he's also clearly the less electable candidate: McCain's favorability has him still popular, at 49/32, while Frist trails nationally 28/36. Because of Bush's continually narrowing popularity, both lead the Democrats, but the question is how long will this last?

52% Approve of President Bush
46% Disapprove of President Bush
2% Unsure

McCain v. Democrats
50% McCain - 41% Daschle
52% McCain - 40% Edwards

Frist v. Democrats
44% Frist - 43% Daschle
45% Frist - 41% Edwards

Winners bolded if outside of a five point margin of victory.

DEMOCRAT SIDE

February 8th:
Maine: 43% Dean, 29% Daschle, 27% Edwards

February 10th:
Tennessee: 49% Edwards, 30% Daschle, 20% Dean
Virginia: 48% Edwards, 26% Daschle, 25% Dean

February 14th:
D.C.: 40% Dean, 39% Daschle, 15% Edwards, 6% Sharpton
Nevada: 36% Daschle, 35% Edwards, 28% Dean

February 17th:
Wisconsin: 36% Edwards, 34% Daschle, 29% Dean

Howard Dean withdraws, makes no endorsement

February 24th:
Hawaii: 66% Edwards, 32% Daschle
Idaho: 58% Daschle, 41% Edwards
Utah: 51% Edwards, 48% Daschle

National Poll:
49% Senator John Edwards
42% Minority Leader Tom Daschle
9% Undecided

Inspite of having more money, more endorsements, and a record of organization for Democrats, continually Tom Daschle has been upset and beaten by the Edwards campaign. Smartly putting its money where it needs to, it has been avoiding states either already within a range of victory (as polls in Virginia and Tennessee had previously shown), and investing heavily in winnable situations (Utah, Wisconsin). Daschle has shown a surprising lack of adeptness in terms of combating Edwards.

However, Super Tuesday looks like a day for Daschle to recover. Most of the states are big money states, states where Daschle is far more able to compete in. He's put in big block advertising in delegate heavy states like California, New York, Massachusetts, and Ohio, touting his record of supporting working people. Edwards hope is that he pulls closer than expected in the bigger states and sweeps some of these smaller, caucus states.

Debate polling has Edwards consistently ahead, showing him as quicker, with more and more Democrats vehemently against the President, and Daschle's attempts to be the Democrat that can win is not giving them the fuel for their fire. In addition to that, Daschle's connections with lobbying firms has not helped him in anyway, and given more fuel to fire the base towards an Edwards nomination.

[TX Conservative Dem]

I can't imagine McCain losing the nomination back to back.

[WillTheMormon]

I like both Daschle and Edwards and would support whoever gets the nomination. Good job!

[MATTROSE94]

If Bush, Jr., didn't seek reelection in 2004, the GOP would still hold the White House that year though because they were stronger on national security than the Democrats.

I agree. Though whoever wins in 2004 would likely lose re-election in 2008 due to the financial crisis.

[Mister Mets]

Liking this scenario.

Surprised Giuliani stayed out, since he would have been popular in 2004 than in 2008.

[Maxwell]

Liking this scenario.

Surprised Giuliani stayed out, since he would have been popular in 2004 than in 2008.

Giuliani was secretly behind McCain from very early on, and as a result, did not enter because of that support.

[Maxwell]

End of the Nominating Process - July 1st, 2004

REPUBLICAN SIDE

Pennsylvania Republican Primary:
62% Senator John McCain
32% Majority Leader Bill Frist
5% Congressman Ron Paul



"Pennsylvanians understand the problems that ail this country and the solutions are right there in front of us, we just have to move forward to reach them! I am ready to lead the Republican Party and the American people to victory!"

Around the beginning of April, John McCain won a commanding victory in the state of Pennsylvania. With this victory, the Republican nominating contest is basically over: Frist had hoped to close the gap to less than 10 in a very McCain favored state, but McCain won by 30. Uniting Republicans of all stripes, McCain became more and more popular, and he started to look like an invincible general election candidate.

On June 5th, however, tragedy struck. On his way to Alaska, McCain's airplane crash landed, killing everyone on-board. The Senator and his wife were both on the plane.

R.I.P. John McCain - August 29th, 1936 - June 5th, 2004

This left a convention of McCain's delegates to decide who would take his place. A lot of the more moderate delegates were divided between Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge and New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, but ultimately conservative delegates had a large majority, and went along with the nomination of McCain's opponent: Majority Leader Bill Frist. This wasn't considered much of an offense to his life: many in the McCain extended family and friends knew Frist and him weren't deeply enemies. They weren't super friendly, but compared to someone closer to J.C. Watts or on the more conservative wing, he was one of the better choices.

Sympathy for Senator McCain allowed for Frist's numbers to increase, and with a vicious Democratic nominating process underway, his favorables were looking stronger than ever, and so were his prospects.

Republican Nominee: Majority Leader Bill Frist



"Even in times of stiff opposition, McCain held his beliefs firmly, and honestly. He is a great American hero, someone who has truly leadership abilities, and I will forever respect him. He is the type of person who we should all follow in the footsteps of."

Talked About VPs:
Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge
Mayor Rudy Giuliani
Vice President Dick Cheney
Governor Bill Owens
Former Governor John Engler
Senator Chuck Hagel
Senator Jon Kyl
Governor George Pataki
Businessman Donald Trump
HUHA Secretary Tommy Thompson

DEMOCRATIC SIDE

Daschle withdraws, doesn't endorse Edwards



"The path toward the nomination no longer exists for me, and I think it's time I take my name out of the ring for the Presidency of the United States.

On May 27th, running out of money, definitely out of chances, and barely clinging on to a lead in his home state of South Dakota, Tom Daschle makes an emotional statement withdrawing from the Presidential race. His disappointment shows: he will have no Senate seat to go home to in 2005, he had made it clear that the Presidential race would be his first priority. What a shock for observers that he had lost the nomination he had so strongly fought for and coveted.

Meanwhile, with sympathy toward McCain high and Edwards running low on resources due to a competitive primary, Democratic chances at the Presidency looked lower than ever. Edwards had strongly fought for the nomination, but polls had consistently placed him as the weaker of the two possible general election candidates, and this showed him far behind.

Democratic Nominee: Senator John Edwards



"We need to fight poverty where ever it is. That will be my focus as President of the United States, making a compassionate case for helping those who can not help themselves. I thank all of my supporters for pushing me toward the nomination, and I will fight for you as hard as I can as President!"

Leaked VP List:
Former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin
Senator John Kerry
Former Defense Secretary William Cohen
Governor Tom Vilsack
Senator Joe Biden

President Bush Approval:
52% Approve
45% Disapprove

Majority Leader Bill Frist - 47% Favorable, 37% Unfavorable
Senator John Edwards - 32% favorable, 49% Unfavorable

National Poll:
53% Majority Leader Bill Frist
37% Senator John Edwards
2% Others
8% Undecided

As of July 1st, the only thing that looked like it could help Edwards close the gap and change public opinion was the Democratic nominating process, which was coming up in a weeks time. At this point it seemed like doom for the campaign, but insiders in the campaign knew anything could change in a moment.

[Maxwell]

Democratic National Convention

July 7th - VP Choice



"In order to defeat the problems that face us, we have to have a united front. Poverty, terror, crime, all of these issues are ones that, if we work together, can be solved. That's why my running mate is a man whose strengths are very obvious, and whose ideas may differ from mine, is a reliable man capable of the Presidency. Therefore, the next Vice President of the United States shall be..."

Former Secretary of Defense William Cohen



"Thank you Senator Edwards. Today we see a country very different from what was 4 years ago. I don't think it is in a good way. Our foreign affairs are filled with misinformation and chaos. My views have developed from back when I was in the Senate, and for all intents and purposes, I can no longer identify as a Republican. It's like Ronald Reagan said: I didn't leave the party, the party left me. Edwards is an honorable man, he will do the right thing."

Post-VP Pick National Polls:
51% Majority Leader Bill Frist (R)/Unknown
39% Senator John Edwards (D)/Former Defense Secretary William Cohen (D)
2% Other
8%

On July 7th, Edwards made the coveted VP pick, and it surprised many observers. Picking Former Republican, Former Defense Secretary William Cohen brought up a risky strategy: alienating Democrats in favor of the center. However, William Cohen did do something very good for the Edwards ticket: he brought experience, credibility, and bi-partisanship. Cohen made it known to anyone who would ask that now he was a Democrat, but his rhetoric always smacked of the same centrist pragmatism that was his Senate career.  It helped out a lot with Independents, Republicans, and undecideds, and did a surprising amount early on to boost Edwards numbers.

Republicans went after Cohen, putting pictures all over the internet with Cohen's face over a picture of Benedict Arnold, but the conclusion was already there: Cohen was a strong backing man for Edwards, and it was a sign of good fortune for his campaign.

The Democratic Convention was a wild success. In the second week of July, Democrats brought on all stars: Joe Biden, Bill and Hillary Clinton, Howard Dean, Mario Cuomo, and even brought out unexpected faces: State Senator Barack Obama, wowing the crowd with his hopeful message, and Minority Leader Tom Daschle, who would endorse the ticket strongly, and snipe at his close rival Bill Frist, calling his leadership "Pathetic", issuing a warning to the Republicans "If you run on scaring people, you'll only succeed in doing that."

But the man who came out on top that night was the man at the top of the ticket. Edwards inspired the crowd in a way he never had before, and if you had heard him right, it was like he was talking directly to you.

"We talk about the future, what changes that we want to make, but that doesn't matter unless the people are behind it. We forget it in the Washington bubble all the time: policies this policies that, it's the people that we need to think about. The Edwards-Cohen administration will be one that actively listens to the citizens of this great nation, each and every one of them, to bring forward change and hope. This is a democracy in America, and it's time we start acting like one!"

Post-DNC Convention National Poll:
50% Majority Leader Bill Frist (R)
44% Senator John Edwards (D)
1% Others
5% Undecided

For the first time in months, it looked like Democrats really had a shot at turning this election around. But it was going to be a long road until then...

[Maxwell]

Events leading up to the Republican National Convention

Anti-Edwards Ad - Liberal lawyer



"Shame on Senator John Edwards. His whole career he has spent as a trial lawyer, affiliating with fellow trial lawyers, and when he gets to congress, he fights tort reform. Senator Edwards has voted hundreds of times in favor of granting amnesty to illegal immigrants, people who violate this nations laws. Senator Edwards supports ending minimum sentences, allowing more criminals on our streets. John Edwards: A liberal lawyer, liberally interpreting the law."

I'm Bill Frist and I approve this message.

Ad season had begun right during the Democratic convention, and with millions more in fundraising, Frist begun to go after Edwards. With his campaign, he ran against Edwards roots as a trial lawyer, running hard on his policies as a liberal. However, these ads seem to lack a certain kick to them. Without the strategic mind of Karl Rove behind the Frist campaign, there was a noticeable void there. These ads didn't make too much of a dent in the Edwards armor, which was starting to build.

August 10th, 2004 - VP Announcement



"This next person is a man outside of the Washington establishment. He is someone who has led one of the largest states in the country to fiscal solvency. And most importantly, in one of the darkest days of this country, he led millions of people through it with gravitas, heart, and did it through sheer force. He is undoubtedly qualified for this job and any job he applies himself to. Give it up, for the next Vice President of the United States..."

New York Governor George Pataki



"Thank you, President-elect *cheers* This nation has seen what it is like to have a philandering, trial lawyer in office before. I mean, just look a little bit over 4 years ago. And now we are in a time of terror, and a time of hostility, and we simply need a steady hand over the wheel. I have more confidence in him than in anyone else, Bill Frist has that steady hand!"

National Poll as of August 10th:
49% Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-TN)/Governor George Pataki (R-NY)
44% Senator John Edwards (D-NC)/Former Defense Secretary Bill Cohen (D-ME)
2% Others
5% Undecided

With the pick of Pataki, Frist did some to stop the bleeding. However, it didn't do nearly enough: Pataki struck observers as competent but boring, and not nearly enough to carry the state of New York. Giuliani had polled far better in national polls, and didn't even bother conservatives as much as it could've. Simply put, it was good, but could be a lot better.

This started to make conservatives worry. It was almost like they were blowing a very strong advantage early on, and the race is already competitive. The Edwards campaign inherited the Dean infrastructure, surviving off of individual donations, getting more efficient and better oiled. The Frist organization was a shell of the Bush one, large, but increasingly clunky and inefficient.  This was starting to spell doom for the Republicans.

Senate Updates!

Narrowly, Flake wins Special Primary for McCain's seat, will face Attorney General Goddard



Republican Primary:
35.8% Congressman Jeff Flake
34.1% Fmr. Congressman Matt Salmon
14.7% Superintendent Tom Horne
12.3% Fmr. Governor Jane Dee Hull
3.1% Scattered Others

Competitive Senate Races
Alaska - 49% Knowles, 42% Murkowski
Arizona - 48% Goddard, 45% Flake
Colorado - 48% Salazar, 47% Coors
Florida - 50% Castor, 44% McCollum
Georgia - 47% Isakson, 44% Oxford
Lousiana - 44% Vitter, 26% John, 15% Kennedy
Kentucky - 47% Mongiardo, 46% Bunning
North Carolina - 46% Bowles, 46% Burr
Oklahoma - 48% Coburn, 44% Carson
Pennsylvania - 47% Toomey, 46% Hoeffel
South Carolina - 52% DeMint, 41% Tanabaum

Interesting Races
South Dakota - 55% Thune, 42% Bradford
Utah - 52% Cannon, 42% Matheson
Connecticut - 51% Bysiewicz, 43% Shays
Illinois - 51% Obama, 42% Rauschenberger

In the Senate, the map begun to look very interesting. Democrats and Republicans both had many possible pick up seats, and many incumbents leaving due to retirement (Dodd, Daschle, and Bennett), or being picked off by a primary challenge (like Arlen Specter).

Democrats have had a lot of chances to lose seats, but they've also done marvels with recruitment. Broad names in states where there definitely shouldn't be a competitive possibility  are competitive. This means the chances for a Democratic majority is existent, the numbers are there, and it's all down to the Presidential election to decide whether that becomes real.

[Maxwell]

Republican Convention, and Events Leading up to the Debates



"I grew up in Europe, and I know, from experience, that there is no place more generous, more compassionate, and more caring than the United States of America!"

In one of the few uplifting speeches of that night, Arnold Schwarzeneggar struck a strong note with the American people. His speech, putting in our minds an immigrant who loves this country, made the crowds go wild.

Besides Schwarzeneggar, though, the Republican Conventions were mostly a wash. Pataki, never very inspiring in the first place, felt dull. Frist made people question whether or not he should've been the nominee, and left the question of his foreign policy credentials out in the open.

President Bush got up to speak only for a short time, and that was very telling of the mood. It seemed as if the GOP was taking the Presidency for granted: looking at the opinion polls and seeing still regularly large/decent sized leads for the ticket even with the most powerhouse DNC anyone could remember. That, was the mistake of the night.

Post-RNC Polling:
49% Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-TN)/Governor George Pataki (R-NY)
43% Senator John Edwards (D-NC)/Former Defense Secretary Bill Cohen (D-ME)
2% Others
6% Undecided

30% - Toss-Up (within 3)
50% - Lean (between 4-8)
70% - Likely/Safe (Lead of 9 or more)

Toss-Up States:
Florida - 49% Frist, 46% Edwards
Iowa - 48% Frist, 45% Edwards
Minnesota - 48% Edwards, 47% Frist
New Hampshire - 47% Frist, 46% Edwards
New Mexico - 49% Frist, 47% Edwards
Ohio - 48% Frist, 45% Edwards
Oregon - 49% Edwards, 46% Frist
Pennsylvania - 48% Frist, 47% Edwards
Wisconsin - 48% Edwards, 46% Frist

Compared to where they were, the Edwards campaign looked ready to go. The President's education legislation was becoming increasiningly unpopular, as was the President himself, and Edwards knew where to hit the president on this issue. Combined with attacking the Presidents handling of the economy and the war, and linking it to Frist, it became clear that Frist had been defined by the actions of the President.

"We see where this administrations priorities are: lying to Americans about military interventions, putting wealthy donors ahead of the common man, and signing an Education bill that will only leave more of our children behind. We can't handle four more years of this lack of leadership, and that's all that Bill Frist really has to offer: is more of the same. I'm offering a healthcare plan that breaks of the old system, that actually helps people than helping insurers, and saves money. I'm offering a serious plan to smartly deal with Iraq while truly facing terror head on. And most importantly, I am offering an administration of transparency: one where the voice of the people, not the voice of insiders, matters."



"I see Bill Frist out there, and what's clear to me is frightening: he's at a complete lack of foreign policy expertise. Now, I have no problem with that, we all have different skills. But the fact that he can lack this knowledge and still pretend that he is qualified for this new role is utterly false. A president needs to be a foreign affairs leader, and he is utterly lacking in that area. Compare that to Edwards: a member of the intelligence committee, the first to say that this information we have been given is faulty. Edwards is the man we need in the White House, Frist is completely wrong."

Breaking News: Powell to leave administration, endorse Edwards



"My concern with the Republican ticket is an over forcefulness. I really believe that we need to take these next couple of steps lightly. I think John Edwards understands that far better than the Republican ticket, and his VP choice tells me that he has a mature idea of what his administration should be like, rather than choosing for electibility. Edwards has swayed me to the Democratic ticket, and I have never voted Democrat in my life."

Pre-Debates National Polls:
48% Frist
45% Edwards
2% Others
5% Undecided

The polls should one thing, but momentum clearly showed another.