2004: Mission Accomplished!

[Maxwell]

June 2006 - Movement of the Meter

Cannon, Wyden, and Baucus to introduce New War on Poverty Alternative

 

In what continues to be a disappointing senate election for Republicans, Chris Cannon has introduced with Oregon Senator Ron Wyden and Montana Senator Max Baucus an alternative plan for the New War on Poverty. It gets rid of a lot of key centerpieces to the Edwards reform such as replacing the housing program with a housing credit, but the plan is considered by many in the Senate an alternative with a stronger chance of passage. The administration is still mulling a decision to promote the alternative or fight for the current bill, but either way, passage of any Poverty bill is going to be difficult due to a filibuster by Senator McConnell.

Cannon has led the charge on many bipartisan reforms, causing his numbers to be in the dumps among Republican voters. Cannon has said he intends to keep going as a Senator of Utah, but chances are, his re-election chances are looking tough already.

In spite of some populist elements in his campaign, Edwards signed the Bahrain-United States free trade agreement. This came as no surprise to those on the inside: while Edwards was opposed to Free Trade in the Senate, he had forced through some stronger mechanisms to make it so that it wasn't a complete cop out, but overall, for his original fans and suppoters, it was a sell out. Overall, though, this issue caused little to no headway to his already dismal approvals.

Edwards to resign the Patriot Act



Edwards Approval:
36% Approve
58% Disapprove
6% Unsure

President Edwards, after some controversy over a lower level administration member resigning due to some belief that he would veto the reauthorization of the Patriot Act, signed it. This struck some Democrats as a defeat for electing Edwards as President, but others saw the Patriot Act as unfortunate but necessary. That was the message the President and Vice President sent, seeing as their continued third way tactics on Foreign Policy were in action.

In May, the Iraqi Government began to function, and several Republicans and Democrats introduced timetables for troop withdraws. Chuck Hagel and Russ Feingold put together a Senate package that gained the most support, but failed under the weight of mainline Democrats and Neoconservative Republicans. Under the weight of this movement, Edwards announced a "we broke it, we have to fix it" strategy on Iraq, saying that we need to wait until the Iraqi Government wants us to leave before we can leave the region.

Edwards approval puts him in a dangerous zone for Democrats in the midterm, but not only that, his numbers put him in a bad range to run for re-election. He's looking more and more like a one term President.

Early Presidential Look: Edwards way behind

53% Giuliani - 34% Edwards
51% Bush - 34% Edwards
50% Thompson - 36% Edwards
47% Romney - 37% Edwards
46% Watts - 38% Edwards
45% Hagel - 33% Edwards
45% Sanford - 37% Edwards
43% Paul - 37% Edwards
42% Bolton - 40% Edwards

Republican Primary Poll:
24% Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani
20% Former Governor Jeb Bush
12% Former Senator Fred Thompson
8% Former Congressman J.C. Watts
6% Governor Mark Sanford
4% Governor Mitt Romney
2% Senator Chuck Hagel
2% Congressman Ron Paul
1% Ambassador John Bolton
33% Undecided

The first major poll of the next Presidential cycle has Edwards looking way behind. He trails every single Republican, even Ron Paul and John Bolton. He faces worst against Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who he trails by a whopping 19 points. However, Edwards people say they aren't worried about the election at the moment, it's clear that he will be a facing an uphill battle should he want to be re-elected President.

The most aggressive campaigners at the moment are Governor Mitt Romney and Former Congressman J.C. Watts, who have both been talking to fundraisers and have been fairly obvious about their ambitions. Rudy Giuliani and Jeb Bush, both considered top tier for the role, have been less obvious, but both have shown some willingness to run for President.

[Maxwell]

2006 Mid-terms

Before
50 Democrats
49 Republicans
1 Independent

Pick-Ups
Hawaii - 50% Lingle, 48% Abercrombie
Maryland - 49% Steele, 48% Cardin
Florida - 50% Martinez, 49% Nelson
Massachusetts - 51% Weld, 47% Capuano
New Jersey - 55% Kean, 44% Menendez
Rhode Island* - 56% Whitehouse, 42% Laffey
Tennessee* - 53% Bryant, 45% Ford

*Primaried Incumbents

After
53 Republicans
46 Democrats
1 Independent

Democrats faced a hard time with mid-terms: after failures of the administration on war on poverty legislation and stalling progress in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Democratic Party lost a number of important seats while failing to knock out any of the feared Republicans. Controversial Minority Leader Jon Kyl will be moving to Majority Leader after defeating Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon, and Senator Rick Santorum defeated Lieutenant Governor Catherine Baker Knoll.

As for the House, Republicans picked up 30 seats, growing their known majority. However, with the retirement of Dennis Hastert, Eric Cantor moves up to Speaker of the House, leap frogging John Boehner, who holds on to his role as Majority Leader.

With the announcement of these victories, Republicans are calling on President Edwards to co-operate with Republicans, announcing an agenda of cutting spending, lowering taxes beyond the Bush rates, and putting forward bipartisan tort reform. As well, foreign policy leaders in the Republican Party are actively pushing President Edwards to take a more proactive role in Iraq, noting the administrations failures in the region.

"Progress has been slow, and I will take some of the blame for that. I have not been able to get through everything we need to for the American people, and for that, I am sincerely sorry. I will work with the new Republican congress to move things along, and to try to remedy the situation."

It was clear to some, even in the administration, that the President had lost control of the White House. Education Secretary Rahm Emanuel resigned to run for Senate in Illinois, and Tom Vilsack resigned as Agriculture Secretary under heat for the Dead Farmers scandal, which had bloated increasingly into wasted funds all across the Farm Subsidies program. Many in the administration quietly had doubts over whether the President even wanted to continue this far out.

His speech post-election was strong, but it wasn't believeable: Edwards didn't seem into anything he was saying. He was in a funk of sorts. The question now is whether or not he will be able to escape.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Bill Nelson goes down in flames ? How did the 2006 Governorships turn out state by state?

[Maxwell]

President Edwards - I will not give up



"What we see today is a small stepback. I know a lot of people have come against this administration, but we will not give up in our attempt to bring prosperty to this country. I admit I have been more forthright than I should have, and as a result, I will work harder to go across the aisle and bring solutions to the American people."

Approval Ratings
38% Approve
56% Disapprove

Potential Democratic Primary Poll
56% President Edwards
33% Senator Kerry

58% President Edwards
28% Fmr. Governor Dean

63% President Edwards
17% DNC Chair Daschle

January 2007 - President Edwards began the new administration amidsts the failure of his war on poverty legislation, killed by a vote of 53-45. Republican Senators Norm Coleman, John Warner, Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, Chris Cannon, and Gordon Smith voting with the Democrats, and Democratic Senators Brad Carson, Ben Nelson, Evan Bayh, and Tony Knowles voting with Republicans. One senator from each side (Paul Sarbanes and Orrin Hatch) did not vote on the matter, both absent from Washington that day.

The administration became more co-operative on a couple of issues - on guns, the administration searched strenuously for a middle ground, communicating with new, swing Republican Senators like Linda Lingle, Michael Steele, Bill Weld, Tom Kean Jr., and Pat Toomey. Along with that, the Edwards administration caved on entitlement reform, with Treasury Secretary Roger Altman stating that certain things must be done in order to make Social Security solvent. Republicans are still holding out on raising the retirement age (wanting 70 rather than 68), but it looks like that is more and more likely.

Because of this, Democrats have increased their fury on Edwards, and are beginning to think of dumping the incumbent President. One person who is incresingly tired of President Edwards and making it known is Senator John Kerry, the Massachusetts Senator who emphasizes his foreign policy credentials and his bipartisan ability, who has criticized Edwards for being a flat out failure. Kerry has made it known his Presidential ambitions before with his failed 2004 campaign, and is about to make it known again.

"Everything the President has done has been rejected by this congress. Now, I know that has something to do with the divided nature of government, I am aware, but the fact that NOTHING this President proposes gets through is disturbing. I think we need new leadership, both of the Democratic Party, and in the White House. Time is up for this man to prove his worth!"

Meanwhile, the Republican Party looked at its position with optimistic caution: knowing that Democrats are weak, but keenly aware of previous occurrences of the situation (such as the 2004 elections). Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Former Governor Jeb Bush were looking like leading frontrunners, but there was the question over who would be the leading conservative candidate. Several people were vying for that position, but the one who seemed to keep coming up was Former Governor Bill Owens of Colorado. In spite of some confusing gaffes and his divorce in his second term, Owens held high ratings with Coloradoans, and was ranked as one of the best Governors of the nation. Should he run, he might take some spotlight away from Jeb Bush.

Congressman J.C. Watts has already made it known that he will not make another run for President, instead has made it known he will either seek the office of Oklahoma Governor or Oklahoma Senator in 2010, and that marks off one potential candidate. Fred Thompson looks increasingly less likely, but conservative voters are still saying that he would be an optimistic choice for President.

Potential Republican Primary Poll
26% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
23% Fmr. Governor Bush
17% Fmr. Senator Thompson
8% Governor Sanford
7% Fmr. Governor Owens
3% Fmr. Governor Romney
2% Senator Santorum
2% Congressman Paul
12% Undecided

[Maxwell]

GOP Announcements as of April 2007

January - Rudy Giuliani announces Campaign for President. John Edwards announces campaign for re-election.

February - Jeb Bush announces he will not run for President.

March - Mark Sanford and Chuck Hagel announces exploratory committee for President.

April - Bill Owens, Ron Paul, John Bolten, and Rick Santorum announce campaigns for President, Mitt Romney announces he will not run. DNC Chairman Tom Daschle will also not run for President.



Republican Primary Poll as of April 2007
36% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
18% Fmr. Senator Thompson*
10% Fmr. Governor Owens
9% Governor Sanford
6% Senator Santorum
4% Congressman Paul
2% Fmr. Ambassador Bolten
2% Senator Hagel
13% Undecided



Democratic Primary Poll as of April 2007
55% President Edwards
35% Senator Kerry*
10% Undecided

or

57% President Edwards
29% Fmr. Governor Dean*
14% Undecided

* means they haven't announced any sort of sign they are running for President yet.

April 2007 - Polls continue to have President Edwards in a very unfavorable position. Senator John Kerry, who has been on a speaking tour criticizing the President, has not yet made an announcement, but most sources close to Kerry say he is more likely to run than he is to not run. On the otherside, Fmr. Vermont Governor and liberal Howard Dean has also been very critical of the Presidents tactics and abilities to get the job done, but is viewed as more unlikely to run. DNC Chairman Tom Daschle, another option Dems had of offing President Edwards, has decisively rejected talk, saying he will not run against the President. However, he also made no concession of endorsement, and maybe a worthy ally to whoever challenges Edwards.

But either way, Democrats face a starkly uphill battle. Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani announced his run for the Presidency in late January, and has been holding a steady lead over Fred Thompson, someone who conservatives are pressuring more and more, and after a long period of not caring, is looking into a potential run. That would do some damage to promising conservative Governors, Mark Sanford of South Carolina and Bill Owens of Colorado, who are running are very good early operation. Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania also announced his candidacy, and while looked at by many pundits as a long shot, has a chance of running hard in the state of Iowa and appealing to christian voters, a strong segment of Republican Primary voters.

General Election Numbers
54% Giuliani - 35% Edwards
52% Giuliani - 37% Kerry
52% Giuliani - 32% Dean

46% Sanford - 40% Edwards
45% Sanford - 42% Kerry
45% Sanford - 37% Dean

48% Owens - 39% Edwards
46% Owens - 40% Kerry
45% Owens - 36% Dean

[Maxwell]

Presidential Announcements as of July 2007

May - Sen. John Kerry announces Presidential Campaign, Rep. J.C. Watts endorses Governor Mark Sanford at his official announcement, Fmr. Gov. Mitt Romney endorses Fmr. Gov. Bill Owens

June - Rep. Dennis Kucinich announces Presidential Campaign

July - Fmr. Sen. Fred Thompson announces Presidential Campaign

Fred Thompson - Slipping as it begins?



Republican Primary Poll (7/10/2007)
33% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
16% Fmr. Sen. Thompson
12% Gov. Sanford
11% Fmr. Gov. Owens
7% Sen. Santorum
4% Rep. Paul
2% Amb. Bolten
2% Sen. Hagel

Iowa Republican Primary Poll (7/10/2007)
23% Fmr. Gov. Owens
17% Fmr. Sen. Thompson
15% Gov. Sanford
9% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
8% Sen. Santorum
7% Rep. Paul
2% Sen. Hagel
1% Amb. Bolten

New Hampshire Republican Primary Poll (7/10/2007)
24% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
18% Fmr. Gov. Owens
15% Fmr. Sen. Thompson
14% Gov. Sanford
7% Sen. Santorum
6% Rep. Paul
2% Amb. Bolten
2% Sen. Hagel

July 10th, 2007 - the day after Fred Thompsons announcement, and already pundits are talking about it: what the hell just happened? It was sloppy organized, horribly timed, and by the time Thompson got on stage, he put everyone to sleep. He didn't even sound like he wanted to be President. His numbers are consistent everywhere, but it looks like in the next couple of months, they are going to drop. His campaign has already said he will not compete in the Iowa strawpoll, leaving Bill Owens out there to sweep.

The campaign that's on fire is that of Bill Owens. Giuliani has faced some gaffes on the trail, including taking a cellphone call during a rally, but Owens operation has been tiddy. He now possesses a 6 point lead in Iowa, the first voting state, and narrowly trails Rudy Giuliani on New Hampshire. His campaign is wonderfully positioned for the first batch of primaries, the ultimate deciders of this race.

Governor Mark Sanford, a key player in the primary and a strong receiver of votes should Thompson's campaign dissolve, received a key endorsement from J.C. Watts a former and maybe even future Presidential contender. This makes his insurgent campaign all the more formidable. Pundits are picturing a Owens and Sanford race, even with Giuliani leading both candidates by over 20 nationally.

Kerry - energetic out the gate!



Democratic Primary Poll (7/10/2007)
50% Pres. Edwards
38% Sen. Kerry
4% Rep. Kucinich

July 10th, 2007 - The President continues to be in peril, as Senator John Kerry is roaming the campaign trail and making it known that this campaign, if he is not nominated, will be a referendum on this Presidents policy failures and a lack of movement on the state of Iraq and Afghanistan. Kerry is gaining endorsements from both more liberal Democrats who view Edwards recent willingness to work on Social Security a betrayal, and more conservative Democrats who view Edwards unwillingness to move on his War on Poverty reform a sign that he lacks bipartisan credentials. It seems like President Edwards was doomed.

Congressman Kucinich also announced he would run for President, but to very little notice. Indeed, he would be running as an insurgent liberal candidate with very little funds, small amount of name recognition, and little ability to move amongst two giants. It was David v. two Goliaths, he would say.

President Edwards already began working on cleaning up his image, Gun Control was moving through the Senate quickly, with a strong amount of newly elected Republicans voting on it. The House still looked like a large task for the President, but many Northeastern Republicans showed some willingness to expand background checks.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Kerry could bring up Edwards' skeletons.

[Maxwell]

Owens takes Iowa Straw Poll, but Santorum the real winner



Ames Iowa Straw Poll
36.8% Former Governor Bill Owens
18.7% Senator Rick Santorum
17.5% Governor Mark Sanford
10.2% Former Senator Fred Thompson
8.3% Congressman Ron Paul
7.2% WI: Governor Rick Perry
0.7% Ambassador John Bolten
0.4% Others
0.2% Senator Chuck Hagel

After a dramatic push in Iowa, Bill Owens wins the Ames Iowa Straw Poll by a large margin. However, two notable things happened as well: the surge of Rick Santorum, who many predicted would only get single digits due to his abysmal fundraising, and the write-in campaign of Rick Perry, who many are thinking will run for President in 2008. Governor Mark Sanford slightly underperformed expectations, though no one expected a victory from him. The worst performance was not Chuck Hagel in last place, though his campaign is in terrible shape, it was fourth place of Former Senator Fred Thompson. Within a couple of weeks, excitement for his campaign has already dried up due to his completely uninspiring performance in the first Republican primary debate. Mayor Rudy Giuliani, as expected, opted out of the straw poll, as his numbers in Iowa are in the single digits.

Post-Straw Poll Iowa
27% Fmr. Gov. Owens
17% Gov. Sanford
13% Sen. Santorum
12% Fmr. Sen. Thompson
8% Mayor Giuliani
7% Rep. Paul
2% Amb. Bolten
1% Sen. Hagel

In the first Republican Debate, Governor Owens came off as the strongest candidate, coming in at #1 in most post debate polls. Mayor Giuliani had his moments too, but when it came to questions of terror, he came off as comically over the top and scary. He also showed thin skin, getting clearly irritated when Governor Sanford provoked him on gun control. Senator Santorum went after Hagel and Paul on their rhetoric against the Iraq war, calling both "isolationists", and calling on them to renounce their views. He also ran as the working class candidate, and called out Governor Sanford for his weak economic record in South Carolina.

Senator Chuck Hagel has already made it known his frustration with the parties direction, and is seen as the most likely candidate to leave before the primaries even start. His campaign has stalled in Iowa, is trailing in 3rd in Nebraska, and is strained for cash, coming in last place in fundraising (even behind Former U.N. Ambassador John Bolten). Some even think that Hagel may endorse Senator Kerry, in his effort to off President John Edwards.

[Maxwell]

August - Chuck Hagel withdraws from the Republican race, makes no endorsement, Perry announced he would not run for President

September -  Dennis Kucinich endorses John Kerry for President

October - Kerry leads in Democratic Poll for the first time after going after Edwards background, Bernard Kerik scandal revealed in more detail



November Republican Primary Poll
27% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
19% Fmr. Gov. Owens
17% Gov. Sanford
10% Sen. Santorum
10% Fmr. Sen. Thompson
5% Rep. Paul
2% Amb. Bolten

November Republican Iowa Poll
30% Fmr. Gov. Owens
17% Sen. Santorum
16% Gov. Sanford
9% Rep. Paul
8% Fmr. Sen. Thompson
5% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
3% Amb. Bolten

November Republican NH Poll
24% Fmr. Gov. Owens
23% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
14% Gov. Sanford
9% Sen. Santorum
9% Fmr. Sen. Thompson
8% Rep. Paul
2% Amb. Bolten

November - In the first major development, the Bernard Kerik scandal has begun to hit Mayor Rudy Giuliani, and while he still leads nationally, he has finally lost his lead in the state of New Hampshire. The main person who has gained from the losses of Giuliani is obviously Colorado Governor Bill Owens, who has run as the compassionate conservative who can put forward bold policies for Republicans. Governor Mark Sanford has focused on a pent up win in South Carolina and campaigning hard in Florida, but his Iowa numbers have been robust considering his struggles. Still, it's no surprise that Senator Rick Santorum is passing him, and is starting to give Owens some troubles in Iowa. In spite of his weak fundraising, Santorum has made it known that he is the candidate for Iowa voters, and his numbers there are continuing to grow.

With the development of Bernard Kerik, some major Republicans have backed out of their endorsements of Rudy Giuliani. Governor Charlie Crist of Florida, originally planning to endorse Giuliani, has backed out completely, and is still waiting for someone to court his vote. Owens and Sanford are currently fighting for that endorsement, which could prove to be critical in the Florida primary.

The Crumbling Presidency



November Democratic Primary Poll
52% Sen. Kerry
43% Pres. Edwards

November Democratic Iowa Poll
48% Sen. Kerry
46% Pres. Edwards

November Democratic NH Poll
60% Sen. Kerry
28% Pres. Edwards

November - Making serious waves on the internet may be the first ever #, which was used by Senator Kerry, when he ended every speech he would say #RetireThisPresident, which has become a part of people's mindsets everywhere. Edwards accomplished a small gun control package in August, but nothing since then of any meaningful nature, and he has signed the watered down Republican budget, leading to more Democratic anger. Since then, he now trails Senator John Kerry by 9 points in the Democratic Primary. However, there is a silver lining - Edwards has a stronger organization in Iowa. Even though Kerry leads, many insiders in Iowa say that Kerry doesn't stand a chance. A surprise win in Iowa for Edwards could lead voters to return.

That being said, confidence in the war and the economy are low, and President Edwards is facing the brunt of that at town halls across the country, even people using the hashtag in front of him. Still, some are becoming more sympathetic to his cause, as he sat down and negotiated new Free Trade agreements with other countries and has still been fighting Republicans on their proposals, vetoing a tax cut and education voucher bill.

[Maxwell]

Final Iowa Tracking Poll
27% Fmr. Gov. Owens
21% Sen. Santorum
17% Gov. Sanford
10% Rep. Paul
7% Fmr. Sen. Thompson
5% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
2% Amb. Bolten

After massive resources spent, Owens still holds a strong lead over both Rick Santorum and Mark Sanford. However, his lead has been slipping, with a 13 point lead in November turning into a 6 point lead in January. Still, many were surprised when this was the result from the Iowa Caucuses:

Iowa Republican Caucus Results
25.2% Sen. Santorum
23.3% Fmr. Gov. Owens
22.4% Gov. Sanford
14.2% Rep. Paul
9.5% Fmr. Sen. Thompson
2.3% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
1.5% Amb. Bolten
1.6% Others

After all that money being thrown into the race, Owens lost in an upset to the second lowest fundraiser in the entire race. Santorum visited every single county in Iowa, did a retail politics strategy, doing town hall after town hall trying to win all the votes he could Iowa. Ron Paul did something similiar - he visited a large chunk of counties in Iowa, and managed to pull off a surprise 4th place - ahead of Fred Thompson.

Things looked bleak for Thompson and Giuliani, the original two frontrunners for the nomination, and they looked like they were being run out of their party. Still, Giuliani fought hard for a win in New Hampshire, where he narrowly trailed Former Governor Bill Owens. Unfortunately, Ron Paul's anti-war rhetoric, due to the current President in charge most likely, had been gaining more traction than expected, and New Hampshire seemed to doom the Former Mayor of New York City -

New Hampshire Republican Primary:
38.9% Fmr. Gov. Owens
20.1% Rep. Paul
16.2% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
9.8% Gov. Sanford
9.2% Sen. Santorum
3.2% Fmr. Sen. Thompson
1.4% Amb. Bolten
1.2% Others

After this point, Giuliani's fundraising dried, and even though he continued to campaign until Florida, his campaign was not considered serious anymore. Post-New Hampshire polling put him barely in double digits, while Bill Owens rose to the race frontrunner. The question now is, whether the front-runner can hold on.

Republican National Polling (Post-NH)
30% Fmr. Gov. Owens
22% Sen. Santorum
18% Gov. Sanford
10% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
8% Rep. Paul
7% Fmr. Sen. Thompson
2% Amb. Bolten

Michigan Republican Poll
29% Fmr. Gov. Owens
26% Sen. Santorum
21% Gov. Sanford
5% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
4% Rep. Paul
3% Fmr. Sen Thompson

South Carolina Republican Poll
43% Gov. Sanford
22% Fmr. Gov. Owens
15% Fmr. Sen. Thompson
6% Sen. Santorum
4% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
3% Rep. Paul

Meanwhile in the Democrat race, President John Edwards began to be able to fight back. Citing Kerry's record of supporting the Iraq war in it's originality with no apologies, he ran as a populist again, citing the problems of congress as a result of Republican obstruction. With a finger on the pulse of the Iowa electorate, Edwards managed to win a surprising result.

Iowa Democratic Caucus Results:
56.4% Pres. Edwards
40.8% Sen. Kerry
2.8% Others

And after the Iowa Caucuses, news only got better for President Edwards - they have the location of Osama Bin Laden, and are on the way to knocking him off. This rallied the troops and raised Edwards approval to positive for the first time since 2005. New Hampshire looked like it could be a campaign ender for John Kerry, and as it turned out, Edwards managed a massive upset in the state after trailing by 30 just two months ago.

New Hampshire Democratic Primary Results:
50.9% Pres. Edwards
47.7% Sen. Kerry
1.4% Others

Kerry noted after his loss in New Hampshire that he had no intentions on leaving the race, but it looked like his campaign was dead. The post-NH polls have Kerry trailing by over 30 points. President Edwards began to run some general election type material, while Kerry's fundraising dried up. In a surprise, the President looked like a surefire win for his parties nomination.

Democratic National Poll (Post-NH)
64% Pres. Edwards
30% Sen. Kerry

General Election Polls
45% Owens v. 46% Edwards
41% Santorum v. 47% Edwards
43% Sanford v. 47% Edwards

[Maxwell]

Pictured: Senator Santorum, visibly disappointed in Michigan Results

Michigan Republican Primary
37.4% Fmr. Gov. Owens
30.6% Sen. Santorum
22.0% Gov. Sanford
4.6% Rep. Paul
2.1% Fmr. Sen. Thompson
2.0% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
1.3% Others

Just after national polls started to put Senator Santorum as the main conservative challenge to Governor Owens, he loses the narrow contest in Michigan by a larger than expected margin. The Owens organization simply out-manuevered Senator Santorum at just about every turn. Even among working families, Santorum trailed Governor Owens by one. This has left some hoping for a challenge to abandon Santorum's bid. Even though his presence is still strong in the race, his momentum since Iowa has gone down.

Leading many donors to start looking again at Governor Mark Sanford. Mark Sanford has not run as strong a campaign as many expected, but he has run as a consistent, confidence inspiring conservative, and a challenge to the more establishment favored Owens. In spite of some polls putting Owens in contention in Sanford's own South Carolina, it proved to not even be a contest:

Pictured: Governor Sanford, celebrating a victory in his important home state

South Carolina Republican Primary
54.6% Gov. Sanford
16.3% Fmr. Gov. Owens
11.2% Fmr. Sen. Thompson
9.4% Sen. Santorum
5.1% Rep. Paul
2.4% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
1.0% Others

Nevada Republican Primary
36.5% Fmr. Gov. Owens
23.0% Gov. Sanford
21.1% Rep. Paul
10.5% Sen. Santorum
4.2% Fmr. Sen. Thompson
3.0% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
1.7% Others

Fred Thompson withdraws, endorses Sanford


Pictured: Fred Thompson, at his last rally, leaving the race

Post-SC Republican Poll
31% Fmr. Gov. Owens
24% Gov. Sanford
19% Sen. Santorum
10% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
8% Rep. Paul

Florida Republican Poll
29% Fmr. Gov. Owens
29% Gov. Sanford
18% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
11% Sen. Santorum
4% Rep. Paul

Governor Sanford has seen a surge in the state of Florida, and as a result, the well organized Owens campaign is fighting back hard. Negative ads have never been so prominent. Sanford criticized Owens record for increasing taxes, while Owens has criticized Sanford for his odd tactics in the state of South Carolina and his weak economic record. Some are saying this is an opportune time for Mayor Giuliani, whose campaign has been floundering, to come up and surprise both candidates. However, judging by his numbers, his campaign has been shrinking incredibly, and after weeks of being in first place in Florida, he fell to 2nd last week, and 3rd this week. Even if he tries to ramp up efforts in the state, it looks increasingly unlikely for a Giuliani comeback.

Next Up: Democrats Pre-Super Tuesday!

[Maxwell]

The beginning and end of the Democratic Primary

Michigan - 70% Edwards, 29% Kerry, 1% Others
South Carolina - 81% Edwards, 18% Kerry, 1% Others
Florida - 65% Edwards, 34% Kerry, 1% Others

President Edwards sweeps the next three contests, to little surprise after upsetting in New Hampshire. However, Kerry's results in Florida managed to be a strong improvement from South Carolina, and that is because of an impassioned speech Kerry gave, displaying his emotion and showing that he isn't a robot. The tears managed to boost Kerry's numbers and made him more competitive. Still, he trails by over 10, and the Edwards campaign by this point had more endorsements and was better organized.

Super Tuesday
John Edwards - Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee

John Kerry - Connecticut, Massachussets, New Jersey, New York

Senator Kerry withdraws

At every turn President Edwards managed to out-maneuver Senator Kerry, and as a result, Kerry withdrew from the Presidential contest the day after Super Tuesday. Still, his speech ignored President Edwards, and instead talked about moving forward on economic issues in the U.S., including reforms to secure our healthcare system for the future. This left Kerry in strong standing with Democrats, and he's now considered a future nominee, even with his weak performance in 2004.

Edwards approvals had been steadily rising since the passage of Universal Background Checks,  and the news on the hill is that the administration has made strong mends with moderate Republicans. The administration and Bill Weld passed a small scale infrastructure bill, with Linda Lingle, the administration passed storm prevention, and with David Vitter, the administration passed a long term fix for the problems of Lousiana and reforms to FEMA. In addition, foreign operations are clearer, Iraq violence is down, and things are looking more and more prosperous. Edwards holds a five point lead (49-44) over the top Republican (Owens) in the field, and an 11 point lead (51-40 and 49-38) over the two weakest (Santorum, Paul).

[Maxwell]

Sanford wins the Florida Primary!

Pictured: Mark Sanford at Florida Victory Party

Florida Republican Primary:
33.2% Gov. Sanford
31.3% Fmr. Gov. Owens
16.4% Fmr. Mayor Giuliani
14.3% Sen. Santorum
3.6% Rep. Paul
1.2% Others

Giuliani exits, endorses Owens


Pictured: Giuliani's concession speech

"I think it's very clear who is capable to lead this nation and who is not. The Democratic Party clearly is not, and Governor Owens clearly is! We have one of the strongest candidates, and I believe he will be a great President."

Maine Republican Primary
38.6% Fmr. Gov. Owens
27.3% Gov. Sanford
19.8% Rep. Paul
12.9% Sen. Santorum
1.4% Others

Pre-Super Tuesday National Poll
32% Fmr. Gov. Owens
31% Gov. Sanford
21% Sen. Santorum
9% Rep. Paul

Mark Sanford's win in Florida has almost entirely erased the national gap between him and Bill Owens, leaving Rick Santorum in the dust. Ron Paul continues to have strong support in caucus states and in New England, but his chances are considered small, even as he's gained a stronger and stronger following since his 04 run. Giuliani endorsement only slowed Sanford's momentum a little, and it looks like it won't be a complete wipe out in Super Tuesday.

Still, Sanford's organization has been weaker than Owens, and Super Tuesday is all about having a strong apparatus at work. Santorum has worked to win some states, but the only state that has Santorum ahead is Arkansas, where he has the notable endorsement of Governor Mike Huckabee. Meanwhile, Sanford has consolidated the south, but beyond their, his numbers aren't as good as he is nationally. The Super Tuesday primaries are dominantly West and New England, and both of those regions are either weak for Sanford or strong for Owens. Either way, this is a contest that may halt the re-birth of Mark Sanford.

Head to Heads

General Election (Owens)
49% Pres. Edwards
44% Fmr. Gov. Owens

General Election (Sanford)
50% Pres. Edwards
42% Gov. Sanford

General Election (Santorum)
51% Pres. Edwards
40% Sen. Santorum

[Maxwell]

Super Tuesday - a win for Owens!

Owens - Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Massachusetts, Montana, New Jersey, New York, Utah
Sanford - Alabama, Delaware, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee
Santorum - Arkansas, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota

Post-Super Tuesday Delegate
Fmr. Gov. Bill Owens - 602 Delegates
Gov. Mark Sanford - 355 Delegates
Sen. Rick Santorum - 184 Delegates
Rep. Ron Paul - 33 Delegates

Post-Super Tuesday Republican Poll
35% Fmr. Gov. Owens
28% Gov. Sanford
22% Sen. Santorum
8% Rep. Paul

After Super Tuesday, Governor Owens returned to the lead, and Santorum managed to rise to the occasion and win some surprising victories in Minnesota and Missouri. Sanford accused the Republican Committee of stacking the deck in these primaries, but ultimately it was seen as a big victory for Governor Owens. Nevertheless, the next bunch of primaries looked to favor either Santorum or Sanford.

In spite of a good Super Tuesday performance, the movement of conservatives continued toward Sanford, and after holding a strong lead in Kansas, Sanford managed to catch up quickly and he won the primary and many primaries moving forward. Santorum's stock went down and Sanford became the conservative challenger to Bill Owens.

Kansas - 37% Sanford, 35% Santorum, 24% Owens, 4% Paul
Lousiana - 51% Sanford, 25% Santorum, 21% Owens, 3% Paul

D.C. - 53% Owens, 24% Santorum, 19% Sanford, 4% Paul
Maryland - 38% Sanford, 33% Owens, 25% Santorum, 5% Paul
Virginia - 44% Sanford, 30% Owens, 22% Santorum, 6% Paul

Washington - 42% Owens, 33% Sanford, 15% Santorum, 10% Paul
Wisconsin - 39% Owens, 38% Sanford, 17% Santorum, 6% Paul

Santorum withdraws, makes no endorsement



Post-Santorum Republican Polling
48% Fmr. Gov. Owens
40% Gov. Sanford
6% Rep. Paul

[Maxwell]

Senate Update

At risk Senate Seats
Alaska - 49% Ted Stevens, 40% Mark Begich
Arkansas - 44% Mark Pryor, 42% Generic
Colorado - 45% Wayne Allard, 40% Mark Udall
Iowa - 47% Tom Harkin, 39% Generic
Lousiana - 42% Mary Landrieu, 45% Generic
Michigan - 49% Carl Levin, 39% Generic
Minnesota - 48% Norm Coleman, 42% Al Franken
Montana - 48% Denny Rehberg, 40% Generic
New Hampshire - 47% John Sununu, 42% Sylvia Larsen
New Jersey - 45% Unknown v. 44% Unknown
New Mexico - 44% Tom Udall v. 44% Unknown
Oregon - 50% Gordon Smith v. 37% Unknown
South Dakota - 42% Tim Johnson, 46% Unknown
Virginia - 47% Mark Warner, 45% Tom Davis
West Virginia - 44% Jay Rockefeller, 45% Shelley Moore Capito

Senate races have not moved with President Edwards. The recent accomplishments of the administration have been a lot of the administrations doing, and like Clinton before him, President Edwards approvals show little coat-tails. A lot of incumbent Democrats are at risk - Mark Pryor, Tom Harkin, Mary Landrieu, Tim Johnson and Jay Rockefeller are either close or are trailing their opponents. Republicans are even thinking that Carl Levins seat is available, though many pundits disagree, especially with Pete Hoekstra leading.

Still Bill Owens seems to be trying to control who gets nominated. Santorum-endorser and Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is being challenged by Gunner DeLay, a candidate endorsed by Owens. Chief of Staff David Young is surging in the polls, and he is also an Owens endorsed candidate, after the weak campaign Greg Ganske and Matt Whittaker mustered in 2002, Owens wanted to take no risks. Many of these Owens backed candidates are negatively viewed by conservative wing as crapitalists and special interest guys, Still, they have been gaining momentum in recent primaries.

Democrats also seem to be risking perfectly good Senate seats. In New Jersey, corrupt congressman Rob Andrews leads by the sheer force of name recognition and the fact that the Democratic field is large. He may get in luck and face Schundler in the general, but likely Zimmer is going to win the Republican nod, and if its a Zimmer-Andrews race, New Jersey may get its second Republican Senator.

Open seats lean Republican, but not all of them. The purest toss-up of all is the Virginia Senate, with the current Governor Tom Davis and the Former Governor Mark Warner battling it out for dominance. This will be the most contentious and negative race of the year, as both are extremely popular Governors.

Primary Polls

Arkansas Republicans
66% Gov. Mike Huckabee
20% Fmr. State Sen. Gunner DeLay

Iowa Republicans
33% Fmr. Rep. Greg Ganske
21% Fmr. Candidate Matt Whittaker
19% Chief of Staff David Young
8% Fmr. State Rep. George Eichhorn

Lousiana Republicans
41% Rep. Rodney Alexander
22% Treasurer John N. Kennedy
14% Sec. of State Jay Dardenne

Michigan Republicans
29% Rep. Pete Hoekstra
24% Sec. of State Terri Lynn Land
23% Rep. Mike Rogers
9% Fmr. Rep. Dick Chrysler

Montana Democrats
39% Lt. Gov. John Bohlinger
29% Fmr. Rep. Pat Williams
12% State Rep. Jon Sesso

New Jersey Democrats
28% Rep. Rob Andrews
16% Rep. Frank Pallone
15% Rep. Bill Pascrell
9% Jersey City Councilor Steve Fulop
8% State Sen. Loretta Weinberg
5% State Sen. Shirley Turner

New Jersey Republicans
49% Fmr. Rep. Dick Zimmer
32% Fmr. Mayor Bret Schundler

New Mexico Republicans
48% Rep. Heather Wilson
36% Rep. Steve Pearce

Oregon Democrats
39% Sec. of State Bill Bradbury
33% Activist Steve Novick

South Dakota Republicans
36% Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard
23% Att. Gen. Larry Long
10% State Rep. Kristi Noem
11% Others

[Maxwell]

Republican Primaries up to May - Owens is the nominee!

Owens - Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont, Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina
Sanford - Texas, Mississippi

In tears, Sanford withdraws

May 12th, 2008 - After running a tough campaign, Mark Sanford, in tears, withdrew from the Presidential race. Many pundits saw this as the end of Sanford's days as a national contender, as the press conference in which he withdrew was odd and visibly upsetting (not to mention too long, at nearly an hour and a half). This did wonders, ironically, to unite the party behind Bill Owens, a candidate who, due to his second term run to raise taxes, was not so popular among conservatives. Still, even with the Senate races going in favor of the Republicans, Owens numbers did not hold up to Edwards, and was about to get worse...

Osama Bin Laden: Killed



President Edwards Approval Rating
56% Approve
40% Disapprove

A small gorup of specialized troops in Afghanistan cornered Osama Bin Laden and killed him. This was a large mark of victory for President Edwards, who campaigned as a third way leader on Foreign Policy, and his foreign policy team, including Vice President William Cohen, praised the mission as a huge success. Combined with recent accomplishments by the President by pulling the strings of liberal Republicans, within a matter of 6 months Edwards has seen a unprecedented reversal of fortunes and approval ratings. Now the President leads his Republican opponent by eleven points (53-42). Nevertheless, Republicans are citing the success as one of Bush's accomplishments, and criticizing the President for being so public about this foreign policy matter.

With general election season under way, many were wondering who Bill Owens would pick for his Vice President. Speculation included Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Pennsylvania Senator Pat Toomey, Former Oklahoma Congressman J.C. Watts, Hawaii Senator Linda Lingle, and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. Right out the gate two people denied entirely Vice Presidential speculation - Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour, and Virginia Governor Tom Davis. Among the people there, the most likely two are Condoleezza Rice, who was a loyal campaigner for Owens, and J.C. Watts, who would unite the party. Still, some are thinking Owens would make a bolder pick, and Lingle is looking more and more interesting to Republican moderates. That being said, Lingle is the biggest risk - more than once Lingle has negotiated with the Edwards administration to pass her bills that include pork for Hawaii, and she has fiscal conservatives boiling over that.

The Campaign begins...



"You know as much as I do that the policies put forward by this President are consistent with the big spending of the Democratic party. This war on poverty solution will bring us nothing but future poverty and that's why it was rejected, and some because of members of his own party. This presidents continued failure of leadership has caused our country to be in lower standing with the world and that won't be what happens under an Owens Presidency."



"This race is about who is going to fight for you. I have fought for the American people. I have put forward policies that would benefit the American people. But at every turn, the Republican Party obstructs our policies. We can't govern if one half of the Senate takes their ball and goes home. The Republican Party is the Party of No, and Governor Owens is a trained follower of the No philosophy, and he will reject the wishes of the American people. If you're tired of obstruction, continue to show Republicans that we mean business, and we will fight for your right to live without hunger, without terror, and without fear! Unlike under the previous President, we have made serious progress in fighting terror, and I haven't met anyone yet that wants to go back to the days of four years ago."

[Maxwell]

Cohen not run with Edwards again



"I've spent several years in public service, and I think my days are service are coming to close. Edwards and I have talked it over, and he agrees that our mission in Afghanistan and Iraq is coming to a close, and with that, the administration needs more domestic focus, and a Vice President who hasn't spent so much time in foreign affairs."

June 13th, 2008 - Vice President William Cohen, Former Republican Senator, has announced he will not run again with President Edwards. Citing a need for domestic focus and his age, Cohen made headlines by being the First Vice President in many years to do so. Democrats, while appreciative of his experience, are excited by the prospect of picking a Vice President, and speculation included Illinois Senator Barack Obama, Former Florida Senator Bob Graham, Delaware Senator Joe Biden, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, and Attorney General Dennis Archer.

Still, Cohen was a popular Vice President, and even as Edwards dipped heavily, Cohen was narrowly popular. This causes Edwards numbers to dip a bit, in addition to the strong campaign Owens is running at the moment.

Former President George W. Bush, with high approval ratings, is touring around the country with Owens and making the case for the Republican ticket. Bush, currently at 57-37 favorables, is avoiding direct criticisms of the administrations, and instead making the case for Owens as the ticket that will bring forward American prosperity. Owens, somewhat drained in resources due to a tough primary campaign, is riding along with Bush to replenish, and the joint interview on ABC has provided a small boost in the Owens numbers, trailing the incumbent President by only 8 leading up to the conventions in September.

Still, things look tough for Owens. Like in the 2004 General Election, Edwards is running on populist outrage, this time aimed at Republicans obstructing his agenda of fighting poverty. In addition, Edwards has revealed a healthcare plan that includes a public option, citing the popularity of a public option as the basis for his campaign. Many Americans approve of his plan, and Republicans seem to be taking too long to tackle the plan, but already there are murmurings of calling it a government take-over of healthcare.

Republicans lead in fundraising for congressional and Senate races, but President Edwards leads Governor Owens in fundraising on the Presidential side, due to Edwards strong repudiation of tort reform and his embrace of some changes to social security. Wall Street is still undecided on who to support in the general election, and that has hurt the campaign of Governor Owens.

June Presidential Poll
52% Pres. Edwards
44% Fmr. Gov. Owens

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

Bill Owens is too marionette-looking to become president.

[Donerail]

Edwards/Graham isn't too far outside the realm of possibility...

[Maxwell]

Edwards/Graham isn't too far outside the realm of possibility...

That's what I was going for! Fun, but not outside the realm of possibilities.

[Maxwell]

Owens to release Vice Presidential List



Republican Veep List
Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice
Pennsylvania Senator Pat Toomey
Tennessee Senator Lamar Alexander
Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty

July 2008 - With the month of July opening up, Republican insiders in the Owens Presidential campaign leaked his potential Vice President. The top three speculated candidates continued their tenure, but with one surprising addition. Tennessee Senator Lamar Alexander, an early endorser of the Owens campaign, has been added to the list. This has made waves among the press, who have considered Owens a Republican moderate, and Alexander a fellow Republican moderate. Most are thinking that Owens needs a contrast - from moderate to conservative. However, some are saying that Alexander on the ticket enhances foreign policy experience, and doubles down on a moderation.

The President's approval ratings are continuing to slip after a high from Osama Bin Laden. Even with a declining economy, the Presidents jobs bill, the Edwards Employment Act, flopped hard on the Senate floor, getting only 30 Democratic votes. Combine that with the burgeoning scandal over at the Veterans Affairs office of duplicated names and lists causing thousands of deaths, and we get the President back under 50. He still holds a lead over Governor Owens, whose recent appearances haven't been so strong. By this time he's starting to get a reputation as a gaffe machine, especially after commenting that "capturing Obama would've been done in a second Bush term anyway!".

President Edwards Approval
48% Approve
49% Disapprove

Presidential Poll (July)
49% Pres. Edwards
45% Fmr. Gov. Owens

[Maxwell]

Edwards: It's Obama!



Presidential Poll (August)
52% Edwards/Obama
45% Owens/Unknown

August 2008 - President John Edwards received a major bump in his campaign for re-election when he announced his Vice Presidential candidate, Senator Barack Obama. Obama is seen as a rising star in the Democratic Party, winning a convincing election over a strong Republican contender in Illinois, and giving a rousing keynote at the 2004 DNC. This perfectly followed up to the Democratic National Convention, which was disappointing at best considering the strong performance in 2004. It seemed as if every person was speaking as a potential 2012 candidate. The keynote speaker, New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, gave a speech that didn't mention Edwards until the last five minutes. Others did the same, but basically until Hillary's husband Bill, Edwards, and Obama, the DNC was one big festival of self-promotion.

Still, Bill Clinton knocked out of the park as usual, Obama, announcing the President, knocked the Republicans for four years of "Obstruction, Obstruction, Obstruction", and Edwards, promising a healthcare plan with a public option, a country with less violence, and pounding his chest over the defeat of Osama Bin Laden. The convention added on to the boost from the nomination of Barack Obama, overall giving a decent boost for the President, but not an exciting one.

Not Pawlenty!

Meanwhile, one Republican candidate removed themselves from Vice Presidential Contention - Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. In an interview on Fox News, Pawlenty flat out denied speculation that he would be a candidate for President. He instead said he would stand by his state and finish out his term for Governor. When asked if Owens lost, would he run in 2012, he gave no denial to interest in the office in the future, but even when provoked, could not say whether he would or wouldn't.

Owens began to repair his campaign in the midsts of the blitz of Democratic coverage. He debated Mark Sanford, filing in for John Edwards, and kept on working on his chops. After a couple of months with the perception as a gaffe machine, Owens was looking to change the story on his candidacy.

[badgate]

Did the RNC already happen?

[Maxwell]

SENATE PRIMARY RESULTS

Arkansas Republicans
58.2% Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee
41.8% Fmr. State Sen. Gunner DeLay

Iowa Republicans
35.2% Chief of Staff David Young
34.8% Fmr. Rep. Greg Ganske
17.7% Fmr. Candidate Matt Whittaker
12.3% Fmr. State Rep. George Eichhorn

Michigan Republicans
35.6% Sec. of State Terri Land
29.1% Rep. Pete Hoekstra
24.9% Rep. Mike Rogers
11.4% Fmr. Rep. Dick Chrysler

Montana Democrats
41.4% Fmr. Rep. Pat Williams
38.9% Fmr. State Sen. John Bohlinger
19.7% State Rep. Jon Sesso

New Jersey Democrats
30.4% Rep. Rob Andrews
22.8% Jersey City Councilor Steve Fulop
21.3% Rep. Frank Pallone
15.6% Rep. Bill Pascrell
7.1% State Sen. Loretta Weinberg
2.8% State Sen. Shirley Turner

New Jersey Republicans
54.3% Fmr. Rep. Dick Zimmer
45.7% Fmr. Mayor Bret Schundler

New Mexico Republicans
51.3% Rep. Steve Pearce
48.7% Rep. Heather Wilson

Oregon Democrats
54.7% Activist Steve Novick
42.8% Sec. of State Bill Bradbury
3.5% Others

South Dakota Republicans
40.5% State Rep. Kristi Noem
28.8% Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard
22.4% Att. Gen. Larry Long
8.3% Others

The Senate Primaries have decided who will face incumbents/fight for open seats. Deeply favored people originally, in a lot of cases, did not win their primaries. Fmr. Congressman Greg Ganske narrowly loses in an upset to Owens-endorsed, Grassley Chief of Staff David Young. Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land upsets the far less electable Congressman Pete Hoekstra in the race for Michigan Senate. And Former Congressman Pat Williams upsets Former Republican State Senator and Schweitzer-endorsed John Bohlinger for Montana Senate.

Still, some of the ones originally favored made it out. In spite of a spirited campaign from Gunner DeLay, Former Governor Mike Huckabee will face Senator Mark Pryor, though admittedly bruised from the primary. Dick Zimmer and Rob Andrews will face each other, though a strong third party is likely as both candidates are not too well liked.

The biggest upset of all was in South Dakota, where Kristi Noem began polling below 10% compared to Lieutenant Governor Dennis Daugaard and Attorney General Larry Long. However, Long and Daugaard faced a brutal primary, and as a result, Noem steadily rose in the polls, and Noem will be the one facing Senator Tim Johnson.

Democrats have a silver lining of sorts though - Mark Begich continues a steady rise in the polls since the controversies of Ted Stevens have arose, Wayne Allard continues to be a very weak incumbent, and Republicans nominated the controversial Steve Pearce for Senate. Still, the stronger nominees in some less likely but controversial states such as Michigan and Iowa seem to be rising in the polls and causing trouble for Democratic incumbents.

At-Risk Senate Seats

Alaska - 48% Ted Stevens, 42% Mark Begich
Arkansas - 43% Mark Pryor, 48% Mike Huckabee
Colorado - 46% Wayne Allard, 44% Mark Udall
Iowa - 48% Tom Harkin, 43% David Young
Lousiana - 40% Mary Landrieu, 23% Rodney Alexander, 18% John Kennedy, 12% Jay Dardenne, 2% Others
Michigan - 47% Carl Levin, 42% Terri Land
Minnesota - 44% Norm Coleman, 34% Al Franken, 15% Dean Barkley
Montana - 53% Denny Rehberg, 42% Pat Williams
New Hampshire - 51% John Sununu, 40% Sylvia Larsen
New Jersey - 46% Dick Zimmer, 43% Rob Andrews, 6% Someone Else
New Mexico - 48% Tom Udall, 45% Steve Pearce
Oregon - 54% Gordon Smith, 38% Steve Novick
South Dakota - 45% Tim Johnson, 47% Kristi Noem
Virginia - 47% Mark Warner, 47% Tom Davis
West Virginia - 45% Jay Rockefeller, 47% Shelley Moore Capito

Oregon Senator Gordon Smith to be removed from the list

[Maxwell]

Did the RNC already happen?

God damn it, that's right, I forgot the order of the conventions. Oh well.