2004: Mission Accomplished!

[PPT Spiral]

This has been great, man. Keep going at it!

[Potatoe]

This has been great, man. Keep going at it!

[Maxwell]

Debates and Important Senate Races

 

First Debate - 55% Edwards, 34% Frist
VP Debate - 52% Cohen, 42% Pataki
Second Debate - 49% Frist, 46% Edwards
Third Debate - 51% Edwards, 43% Frist

After three Presidential debates and a Vice Presidential debates, the momentum of Edwards has finally pushed him to a lead after trailing in June by over 20 points. Both candidates made a pact not to talk about the death of Senator John McCain, and not to invoke his image in any of their ads or their debates. The strategy of Edwards was to paint the image of Frist before Frist could paint him, and he managed to do so quite effectively.

Frist was imagined as a foreign policy dunce, a fierce partisan who couldn't care less about the future of America, but instead cared about what was in it for him. The populist message about fixing poverty made ways with many Americans, particularly those in the South and the Rust belt, where Edwards numbers began to balloon. Most importantly, the Edwards campaign took a third way position on foreign policy, talking about specifics and ways to get done with Iraq quickly rather than just chastising the administration.

In truth, Cohen sounded more aggressive than Edwards did during the debates, and Republicans tried to spin his performance as petulant and angry, and put Pataki as someone who was just trying to survive out there.

Even with all that going for the Edwards campaign, however, President Bush's approvals begun recovering after a long weak run, and this made it harder for the Edwards people to call this race anything but a toss-up.

Late October National Poll:
48% Edwards/Cohen
47% Frist/Pataki
1% Others
4% Undecided

Toss-Up States:
Florida - 48% Edwards, 47% Frist
Iowa - 48% Edwards, 46% Frist
Missouri - 49% Frist, 46% Edwards
Nevada - 48% Frist, 45% Edwards
New Hampshire - 49% Edwards, 47% Frist
North Carolina - 49% Edwards, 48% Frist
Ohio - 49% Edwards, 47% Frist
Virginia - 48% Frist, 46% Edwards
West Virginia - 47% Frist, 44% Edwards

Important Senate Races

Carson: The strongest campaign, but can it win?



Oklahoma: 48% Tom Coburn, 47% Brad Carson

Congressman Brad Carson's campaign was named by experts in the field as the best campaign of the season. In spite of Majority Leader Bill Frist dominating Edwards by 20 point margins in the state, Carson barely trails his predecessor in Congress. Whether this is because Coburn is too conservative even for Oklahoma is a question, but almost certainly Carson is making it a race to watch.

Other Competitive Senate Races
Alaska - 50% Knowles, 44% Murkowski
Arizona - 48% Goddard, 47% Flake
Colorado - 51% Salazar, 46% Coors
Georgia - 48% Isakson, 46% Oxford
Lousiana - 43% Vitter, 31% John, 12% Kennedy
Kentucky - 49% Mongiardo, 46% Bunning
North Carolina - 47% Bowles, 46% Burr
Pennsylvania - 47% Hoeffel, 46% Toomey
Utah - 51% Cannon, 45% Matheson

Interesting Races
Florida - 52% Castor, 43% McCollum
South Carolina - 53% DeMint, 42% Tenebaum
South Dakota - 58% Thune, 39% Bradford
Connecticut - 52% Bysiewicz, 44% Shays
Illinois - 53% Obama, 40% Rauschenberger

[Maxwell]

Edwards wins surprisingly large victory

Senator John Edwards (D-NC)/Former Defense Secretary William Cohen (D-ME) - 51.7%, 355 EV's
Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-TN)/Governor George Pataki (R-NY) - 47.1%, 183 EV's
Others - 1.2%, 0 EV's

In spite of a pretty poor performance in the West Coast, The Edwards-Cohen ticket won a large electoral victory over Frist/Pataki. The campaign was riddled with a strange absence of President Bush and Vice President Cheney on the campaign trail, a weak campaign structure from Frist/Pataki, and a strong Democratic apparatus. The message from Edwards-Cohen, which was third way on some issues and populist on others, made surprising headway in the South, where they barely lost South Carolina, Kentucky, Arkansas and Louisiana.

With that, Democrats also performed strongly in the Senate races. His results pushed forward a lot of Democrats:

Competitive Senate Races
Alaska - 49.2% Knowles, 49.1% Murkowski, 1.7% Others
Arizona - 50% Goddard, 48% Flake, 2% Others
Colorado - 55% Salazar, 43% Coors, 2% Others
Georgia - 49% Isakson, 48% Oxford, 3% Others
Lousiana - 45% Vitter, 32% John, 15% Kennedy, 8% Others
Kentucky - 52% Mongiardo, 47% Bunning, 1% Others
North Carolina - 53% Bowles, 46% Burr, 1% Others
Pennsylvania - 50% Toomey, 49% Hoeffel, 1% Others
Oklahoma - 49.5% Carson, 49.4% Coburn, 1.1% Others
Utah - 52% Cannon, 45% Matheson, 3% Others

Interesting Races
Florida - 56% Castor, 43% McCollum
South Carolina - 53% DeMint, 45% Tenebaum
South Dakota - 61% Thune, 39% Bradford
Connecticut - 54% Bysiewicz, 44% Shays
Illinois - 58% Obama, 38% Rauschenberger
Missouri - 54% Bond, 45% Farmer

+2 Democratic Gain

Democrats - 50
Republicans - 49
Independents - 1

House Elections

+8 Democratic Gain

222 Republicans
212 Democrats
1 Independent

Interesting Gubernatorial Races
Indiana 50% Daniels, 48% Kernan
Missouri: 51% McCaskill, 48% Blunt
Montana: 49% Brown, 48% Schweitzer
Washington: 50.1% Gregoire, 49.3% Rossi

0 Gains for Either Party!

Edwards win managed to sweep in some surprising contenders. Even in the two most unlikely places, Arizona (where McCain's death left a special election) and Oklahoma (where it voted against Gore by over 20 points), Democrats won elections. In spite of that, Democratic seats were left open for Republicans to take, which leaves the Senate in a very competitive place.

Edwards would have to face a divided government. Whether he could handle it, is whats next...

[Donerail]

I take it Vitter and Isakson both won their runoffs as well? Still, excellent results.

[Maxwell]

I take it Vitter and Isakson both won their runoffs as well? Still, excellent results.

I forgot Georgia did run offs, I will do those next!

[Maxwell]

The Peculiar case of Georgia and Lousiana: Run-up to the Run-Off



"Congressman Isakson thought he had this thing locked  up, but our campaign has been in Georgia, connecting with people, and I think this Senate seat is going to be the People's seat. They want someone who isn't beholden to special interests, and I clearly won't be."



"Georgia knows me. They know I'm reliable, they know I've represented their interests for years. Who they don't know is Mr. Oxford. They don't know how much he pays in taxes, and in these last months, I am going to demand we see his tax returns! We can't have someone who is taking advantage of a broken system in the office of Senator."

In Georgia, Cliff Oxford faced a hard obstacle: facing a strong candidate in Johnny Isakson, without the turnout of a Presidential election, in deep red Georgia. Money wasn't tight though, as a millionaire, Oxford was able to keep up with Isakson. However, Isakson, as of late taking a populist route, began ragging Oxford's business dealings, and demanding to see his tax returns. This helped Isakson considerably in the run up polls, and Oxford began to drop hard.

Georgia Results:
56.2% Congressman Johnny Isakson
43.8% Businessman Cliff Oxford

"Lousiana has seen the problems with tax and spend policies. I won't embrace them, my opponent does. I will embrace common sense policies that save Lousianans money."



"David Vitter is having relationships with prostitutes. Now is that what Lousiana wants? I want someone who will represent Louisana to the fullest, and that's what I'd do as Senator."

Congressman Chris John went hard on the offensive when they made it to the run-off. However, without proper turnout, it was as if he was floundering for anything. Vitter kept on the talking points, and even though Johns margins were creeping closer, Vitter seemed safe. That's why the close margin came as a shock to the Vitter campaign:

Lousiana Result:
50.2% Congressman David Vitter
49.8% Congressman Chris John

[Maxwell]

The First Couple of Months

Cabinet of President John Edwards



"I, John Edwards, do solemnly swear..."

Vice President: William Cohen
Chief of Staff: Kathleen McGlynn

Secretary of State: Richard Halbrooke
Secretary of Treasury: Roger C. Altman
Secretary of Defense: Warren Rudman
Attorney General: Dennis Archer
Secretary of Agriculture: Tom Vilsack
Secretary of HHS: Jeanne Shaheen
Secretary of Homeland Security: Lee Hamilton
Secretary of Transportation: Ray LaHood
Secretary of Labor: David Bonior
Secretary of Commerce: Jim Johnson
Secretary of Housing and Development: Andrew Cuomo
Secretary of Energy: Wesley Clark
Secretary of Veterans Affairs: Merrill McPeak
Secretary of Education: Rahm Emanuel

Approvals by March 2005:
53% Approve
35% Disapprove
12% Unsure

On January of 2005, John Edwards was inaugerated as the 44th President of the United States. Getting started right away, he announced a huge amount of cabinet employees and got most of them through with few controversies. He made sure to eliminate just about everyone from the Bush administration, even some of the less controversial ones, to clean out the administration with his own people.

The most controversial pick was that of Wesley Clark for the Department of Energy. Liberals criticized the pick, noting his close relationship with Former Minority Leader Tom Daschle, and demanding a more liberal nominee. Clark noted his support of ethanol and his dedication towards a more energy independent country, but many slammed the book on him. It took convincing of Republicans, which Cohen still had distant but existent relationships, in order to push Clark through.

Republicans attempted to filibuster Richard Halbrooke, former Clinton ambassador, but he nevertheless managed to pass by a relatively narrow 62-35 in the Senate. The quickness of these proceedings was embraced by the press.

Senate Leadership:
Majority Leader: Harry Reid (D-NV)
Majority Whip: Chuck Schumer (D-NY)
Minority Leader: Jon Kyl (R-AZ)
Minority Whip: Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

House Leadership:
Speaker of the House: Dennis Hastert (R-IL)
Majority Leader: John Boehner (R-OH)
Majority Whip: Eric Cantor (R-VA)
Minority Leader: Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)
Minority Whip: Steny Hoyer (D-MD)

Foreign Policy - First Elections, New Terror Strategy

In foreign policy, the first elections occurred in Iraq, which Republicans quickly hailed as the beginning of a democratic Iraq. Edwards, testing out a pragmatic foreign policy, acknowledges the war was done under faulty intelligence, and promises to move quickly toward a safer Iraq, keeping troops in the region to help secure progress before any form of exit. This causes some anger from fellow Democrats, but his approvals hold steady. Bombings still occur, and the overall mission is still questionable.

Secretary Holbrooke announced the roll out of a new strategy in combating terror in Afghanistan. Upon receiving new information on the location of Osama Bin Laden, Holbrooke shifted more troops over to Afghanistan and Pakistan in order to search for him. Knocking out terror as a whole required defeating the taliban in their country, and the focus of foreign policy was from then on shifted to that mission.

Domestic Front - Poverty and Tort Reform



"I said from Day 1 of this campaign that we would fight the good fight against Poverty, and with a significant win of this office, I am going to keep my promise. We are drafting the first comprehensive legislation combating poverty since LBJ's 'Good Society', and I can assure all of you, we need this for our children. I am hoping we can bring along people of all strides, Republican, Democrats, Independents, to get their voices and make the legislation as inclusive as possible."

On an economic agenda, the Edwards people and the Democratic Senate began drafting a large piece of anti-poverty legislation. Minority Leader Jon Kyl said of the legislation in a backroom meeting with Republican Leadership -

"The bill from the President's office is dead in the water. We will not negotiate on it. We will not build on it. We will not stand with it. Our mission in the next four years is to defeat John Edwards and this is the centerpiece of his administration."

This comment sparked a firestorm in the press, and caused Minority Leader Kyl's approvals to drop dramatically. Edwards and many other key members of the administration called on Republicans to denounce the words of Senator Kyl and build on the project. Even Jack Kemp called out Kyl for his comments and said it was shameful that "Republicans won't even talk about poverty!"

More on the Domestic front, Edwards vetoes the Class Action Fairness Act, calling the bill "a travesty, a violation of the peoples rights, and an expansion of power for large corporations". The Senate votes largely in favor of the piece of legislation, but barely miss the veto override requirement (64-33), with some prominent Democrats switching their vote after the Edwards veto. Republicans called the Democrats cowards for their backing off the legislation and the leader of the fight, Senator Chuck Grassley, stated that he would continue to fight for tort reform in the Senate.

[Sec. of State Superique]

Wesley Clark should be Secretary of Defense

[Maxwell]

Foreign Progress, but problems continue at home



"The President is dedicated to increasing spending and running up deficits, all the while the mission in Iraq is becoming a disaster in front of our very eyes. This Presidents negligence toward the Troops is disgusting, and we will be proposing a surge of troops in Iraq."

Presidential Approval (July 30th, 2005):
47% Approve
45% Disapprove

As of the end of July, Republicans have continued to stall the President's poverty agenda, pointing to high levels of spending and called it a distraction from the War on Terror that is going on. They have similarly blocked other pieces of legislation pushed by the President, wanting to focus on the war at hand.

"Gun control is a crucial issue, and we need to fight the problem of gun violence continually, and with a new Democratic Senate, I believe we can work together to defeat this problem by banning Assault Weapons."

On July 5th, the Administration stood with Senator Diane Feinstein (D-CA) and Senator Susan Bysiewicz (D-CT) with the introduction of a slightly reformed Assault Weapons Ban. Originally wanting to re-introduce the bill wholesale, Feinstein got concerned when Senators Goddard and Bowles told her straight forward that they would not vote for any Gun Control that isn't changed fundamentally to meet the center. Most vote counters still don't take the bill seriously, with very few Republicans willing to cross over on any Democratic bill, and many Democrats hesitant to join the administration on such a prominent issue as guns.

"The President is targeting real terror. In Iraq, we are working on the mission, finishing up what we are doing, and shifting our focus on what needs to be done. And what needs to be done is eliminate Osama Bin Laden and the Talaban, and we are doing just that in Afghanistan."

In Iraq, A Prime Minister was recently elected, and Jalal Talabani was elected President of Iraq. Bombing still occurs in Iraq, and it's still volatile. Republicans have attacked the President mercilessly for his handling of Iraq, even going on to calling him a coward for his shift of focus on Afghanistan. The administration still is very hesitant to any sort of withdraw, much to the impatience of Democratic liberals.

Progress is being made in Afghanistan, however. Major terrorists are being targeted and knocked off in the region, and the administration is heading closer and closer to Osama bin Laden. Defense Secretary Warren Rudman noted progress in this area, as did State Secretary Richard Holbrooke, and many are viewing foreign affairs as a success for the President, but domestic policy to be going through a bad start.

Virginia and New Jersey Polls
45% Kaine - 44% Davis - 4% Potts
51% Corzine - 32% Schundler

New Jersey Dem Primary: 56% Corzine, 38% Codey
New Jersey Rep Primary: 43% Schundler, 41% Forrester, 13% Murphy
Virginia Rep Primary: 51% Davis, 43% Hager
Virginia Dem Primary: 100% Kaine

[TX Conservative Dem]

I take it Kaine holds the Virginia governorship for the Democrats.

Warner's massive popularity helps him.

On McCain: I believe Gov. Napolitano would appoint a placeholder.

[TX Conservative Dem]

I also got Salazar winning the Colorado Senate race too.

[Maxwell]

I take it Kaine holds the Virginia governorship for the Democrats.

Warner's massive popularity helps him.

On McCain: I believe Gov. Napolitano would appoint a placeholder.

Normally, I would agree. However to respond to the McCain thing: It was the year of his election. I think Napolitano would just let the election happen. Again, this is me, not really knowing Arizona law, so maybe I'm off.

[Maxwell]

Virginia Gubernatorial Results:
52.3% Congressman Tom Davis
46.7% Lt. Governor Tim Kaine



New Jersey Gubernatorial Results:
47.1% Senator Jon Corzine
45.3% Mayor Bret Schundler

In Virginia and in New Jersey, Democrats saw the effects of effective/ineffective candidates. Tom Davis ran on a campaign of bipartisanship, running toward the center, criticizing President Edwards for his lack of leadership, not signing a bipartisan tort reform bill, and pushing hard on poverty. By the time the election came around, Tim Kaine, who had been leading until October, had nothing to do but lose.

In New Jersey, Senator Corzine's business dealings increasingly came under scrutiny, and by the time of the election, Corzine was one of the most unpopular people to win elected office. Schundler struck voters as far too conservative for New Jersey, which lead to the very unpopular Jon Corzine to be elected the states Governor, by a shockingly close margin (most polls still had Corzine ahead by 5-10).

[badgate]

Tom Davis is what I think Nicolae Carpathia from the Left Behind books looks like.

[TX Conservative Dem]

If Kaine had lost in 2005 to Davis, would the Dems get him to run for the US Senate in 2006 against Allen ?

We know Mark Warner would likely win the other US Senate seat in 2008.

[Maxwell]

If Kaine had lost in 2005 to Davis, would the Dems get him to run for the US Senate in 2006 against Allen ?

We know Mark Warner would likely win the other US Senate seat in 2008.

I'm not sure, probably not since the stench of losing might be too much.

[Maxwell]

"We are still working hard to fight another War on Poverty, but Republicans are continuing to push and shove this project away. These are the same people that fought social security and Medicare, two programs that Americans are empowered by. We need to fight poverty further, and we need to do so now."

Presidential Approval (Dec. 2005):
42% Approve
51% Disapprove

The President begins to face the problems of a divided congress: Gun Control, in spite of being negotiated, is soundly rejected, with Senators Brad Carson, Ben Nelson, Tony Knowles, Blanche Lincoln, Ken Salazar, and Evan Bayh voting against it on the Democratic side, and only Senators Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, and Pat Toomey, a major contributor to the legislation, voting for it on the Republican side. Many Democrats and some Republicans were on the fence on the legislation, and some felt that bringing out Former Senator and VP William Cohen would've pushed this legislation closer to passage, but the filibuster from Senator DeMint ultimately sunk the legislation.

Increasingly, poverty legislation looked impossible. With Senators Brad Carson, Blanche Lincoln, Joe Lieberman, Ben Nelson, and Evan Bayh still on the fence, and very few Republicans are even willing to talk, citing the administrations need for revenue on the project. Senator David Vitter took to the hill to make it clear: the bill will not pass unless there are cuts to other projects and no taxes.

Republicans also started pointing to Edwards as LBJ - a vicious, power hungry man whose appetite for destruction knows no bounds. The failure of Vietnam in Iraq's management, the failure of Poverty legislation to the Good Society, the comparisons fell into place.

"Democrats want a big bloated program. They think, because they had electoral victories in 2004, that they can just run roughshod with their agenda. Well, John Edwards seems very power hungry to me, and with his failed management of Iraq, and failed management of just about everything else in his administration, he's going to go down in history as a vicious, failed President. We don't like to be blamed, we just want to fix the problem without costing American tax payers more money. If our concerns aren't met, there will be no Poverty legislation. It will fail."

On the judiciary, William Rehnquist died on October 3rd, 2005, after a struggle with thyroid cancer, and along with him, Justice O'Connor announced she would leave the court upon the confirmation of her successor. Democrats saw this as an opportunity to put two people forward to the Supreme Court to change the balance of the court. However, the proceedings were some of the most hostile and most partisan ever seen.

Associate Justice Eric Holder

The first nominated was Eric Holder for O'Connor's spot in the Court. Eric Holder was the deputy Attorney General under Bill Clinton, and was heavily criticized for his role as Attorney General. Holder struck some Democrats as a problem, due to his views on national security and the Patriot Act, and this allowed for a rare bipartisan coalition to form on both sides. Diane Feinstein voted with Lindsay Graham, but Ron Wyden voted with David Vitter, as more partisan Republicans rejected the pick as "packing the courts". The vote ended up an embarrassingly narrow 53-44, but Holder was confirmed.

Chief Justice Sonia Sotomayor

The other nominee was Sonia Sotomayor. Less controversial than Holder in terms of her judicial record, but more so in terms of her past. She was the beneficiary of affirmative action, causing many Republicans to say that she did not earn her position. Striking a nerve, she spoke out against these comments as a kind of racism, and after her hearing, not many were questioning her qualifications. She passed more easily - 63-32, but for a Supreme Court nominee, still very narrowly.

On foreign affairs, prisoners in Iraqi prisons were found to be tortured, beaten, and starved. After some progress in terms of getting the country together in the middle of July, and it seems the country is unraveling. More problems are arising, more bombings in the country are occurring, and more people are dying. The decision keeps coming to Edwards door: should we leave the chaotic mess in Iraq to save our own men, or should we continue to try to stabilize the region. Public opinion had continued to sour on the War, looking at it as another Vietnam situation. The Edwards people were still concerned over whether or not to leave with Halbrooke feeling like leaving is the right decision, and Cohen and Rudman still concerned over whether that's the right decision.

[Maxwell]

Senate/Governors Update

Senate Retirements
Senator Daniel Akaka (D-HI)
Senator Paul Sarbanes (D-MD)
Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA)
Senator Mark Dayton (D-MN)
Senator Jim Jeffords (I-VT)

Open Senate Polling
Hawaii - 48% Lingle, 43% Case/47% Lingle, 41% Abercrombie
Maryland - 46% Cardin, 45% Steele
Massachusetts - 46% Capuano, 39% Weld
Minnesota - 45% Klobuchar, 42% Kennedy
Vermont - 44% Sanders, 43% Douglas

The beginning of the electoral season has proven to be a strong recruiting cycle for Republicans. With the retirement of popular Senator Daniel Akaka, One term Republican Governor Linda Lingle has announced her candidacy for Senate, and at the right time too, her popularity puts her in the top tier of Governors in the nation. she leads Democratic primary challengers Congressman Ed Case and Congressman Neil Abercrombie by 5 and 6 points. In other states, Republlican recruits are competitive or near competitive (Former Governor Bill Weld trails by 7, but that makes him far more competitive than many of the last nominees for Ted Kennedy's seat. This cycle is proving to be toxic for Democrats.

Vulnerable Seats
Arizona - 44% Kyl, 42% Gordon
Florida - 45% Nelson, 44% Martinez
Michigan - 47% Stabenow, 43% Cox
New Jersey - 45% Kean, 38% Menendez
Pennsylvania - 46% Santorum, 44% Knoll
Rhode Island - 51% Chafee, 41% Whitehouse/ 46% Whitehouse, 36% Laffey
Tennessee - 47% Frist, 41% Ford/ 45% Bryant, 42% Ford
Washington - 48% Cantwell, 43% Rossi

With that being said, there are pick-up oppurtunties for Democrats: Even though democrats dislike Lieutenant Governor Knoll, Rick Santorum proves to be one of the least popular Senators in the country. Even Mike DeWine and Jim Talent, other relatively unpopular Republicans, have drawn meek opposition (DeWine leads Sherrod Brown by 10 points, Talent leads Nancy Farmer by 8 points, a strong margin for Missouri). The most unpopular Senator, Jon Kyl with a lowly 36% Approval rating, has remained content to fight for his re-election, maneuvering his way out of a Republican primary and battling Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon for the political fight of his life.

Republican primaries are also proving to play a pivotal role in the control of the Senate: Senator Bill Frist faces a strong primary challenge from Former Congressman Ed Bryant, and if he loses, Congressman Harold Ford faces an easier set of stairs to climb. Even more so in Rhode Island, where Lincoln Chafee leads Sheldon Whitehouse by 10 points, and Steve Laffey loses by that same 10 point margin to Whitehouse.

Vulnerable Governors
Arizona - 44% Napolitano, 41% Salmon
Illinois - 45% Topinka, 37% Blagojevich, 5% Whitney
Iowa - 48% Nussle, 38% Pederson
Kansas - 47% Brownback, 43% Sebelius
Maryland - 46% Ehrlich, 44% O'Malley
Michigan - 45% Camp, 41% Granholm
New York - 46% Pataki, 42% Spitzer
Oklahoma - 46% Henry, 45% Fallin
Pennsylvania - 47% Rendell, 42% Meehan
Texas - 32% Perry, 22% Strayhorn, 21% Bell, 14% Friedman
Wisconsin - 45% Green, 40% Doyle

Democrats have a lot of Gubernatorial seats to fear losing. Incumbents are falling hard, particularly in states with strong Republican recruits. Only Maryland, where Bob Ehrlich faces the Maryland electorate, and New York, where Pataki faces the same, do Republicans look like they will have a hard time re-electing their Governor.

Gubernatorial Retirements
Ted Kulongoski (D-OR)
Bob Taft (R-OH)
Kenny Guinn (R-NV)
Linda Lingle (R-HI) [Running for Senate]
Jim Douglas (R-VT) [Running for Senate]
Mitt Romney (R-MA)
Jim Risch (R-ID)
Jeb Bush (R-FL)
Bill Owens (R-CO)
Mike Huckabee (R-AR)
Frank Murkowski (R-AK)

Competitive Retirement Races
Oregon - 47% Saxton, 43% Hill
Ohio - 46% Strickland, 38% Petro
Nevada - 48% Gibson, 37% Titus
Hawaii - 47% Hanabusa, 45% Aiona
Vermont - 46% Markowitz, 42% Dubie
Massachussets - 45% Patrick, 43% Brown
Colorado - 46% Beauprez, 42% Ritter
Arkansas - 43% Beebe, 43% Hutchinson

The plus, however, is a lot of Republicans are retiring, leaving oppurtunties for Democratic pick-ups. The hottest races are in states were liberal Republicans are running for Senate: State Senate Majority Leader Colleen Hanabusa leads Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona narrowly for Governor, as does Deborah Markowitz over Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie. Out of nowhere State Senator Scott Brown has come to a shocking close margin already to U.S. Attorney Deval Patrick.

Kulongonski is the only outright Democratic Party retirement, and that's because his approval ratings are in the dumps and he would trail his primary opponent, Jim Hill, by a 10 point margin (44-34). Same happened with Frank Murkowski, but small town mayor Sarah Palin leads Mark Begich by a substantial margin.

[Potatoe]

Aw, Bernie's in danger.

Also, this is a great TL, please continue!

[Maxwell]

Cannon-Bowles Entitlement Reform Package introduced

On February 22nd of 2006, Senator Chris Cannon (R-UT) and Senator Erskine Bowles (D-NC) put forward a bipartisan plan to reform Social Security and Medicare. The plan has members of both parties fuming: the plan raises the retirement age to 68, changes some elements that ultimately cuts benefits, and keeps Social Security solvent for another 30 years. Most Republicans critique the plan as not going far enough, while Democrats see it as an attack on Social Security. However, many Republicans and Democrats who are against it at the moment are saying that they would be willing to come to the table and negiotiate to find a better solution and amend the bill.

Co-Sponsors include Senators Ron Wyden (D-OR), Brad Carson (D-OK), Ben Nelson (D-NE), Evan Bayh (D-IN) , John Warner (R-VA), Pat Toomey (R-PA), Johnny Isakson (R-GA), Kit Bond (R-MO), Chuck Hagel (R-NE).

Poverty has continued to stall, with Republicans continuing to budge and Democrats such as Brad Carson, Ben Nelson, Joe Lieberman, Blanche Lincoln, and Evan Bayh still holding back on the bill. However, one notable Republican hopped on board: Senator John Warner of Virginia. After conceding on a couple of provision, the aging Republican Senator kept his word and came on to support the legislation. In a televised statement, he said -

"This has been a far longer process than I think most would imagine would be ideal. However, over the course of this debate, I have come over to the idea of this bill, and I have no choice but to go on my word and endorse this legislation. Poverty is a serious problem in this country, and we, in congress, have to do our part to fight it, and this legislation has ceded to a realistic middle ground that won't bust the budget to do so."

Naturally, Senator Warner has earned the spite of his fellow Republicans, with some in leadership threatening to take away his positions on all of his committees. Warner announced at that time he would not be running for re-election, so this may be the last straw of whether he resigns before his term ends, or if he just finishes out his term.

Scandal: Hundreds of Millions in agriculture subsidies have been going to dead farmers!



"Under the Bush administration, the agriculture program had opened up a few loopholes that had exploited then, and since those numbers have exploded, that has become a massive problem where money from the department has sunk into people who aren't alive. I will take some of the blame myself, but this is a problem of efficiency, and we are thinking of a solution to this."

On March 1st, 2006, scandal hit the Agriculture Department, after a discovery that hundreds of millions of Agriculture subsidies have been given to dead farmers. The programs ineffeciency is being hit hard by Republicans and Democrats, with Agriculture based Senators Chuck Grassley, Tom Harkin, Brad Carson, and Jim Inhofe calling for Secretary Vilsack's resignation. Vilsack's office has reported that they will be working hard to fix the loophole, but some sources on the hill are saying that after the introduction of reform to the program, Vilsack will be leaving the administration.

Some are saying this scandal goes deeper, but at this moment, no evidence of that has arisen.

President Edwards Approval (Mar. 2006):
38% Approve
58% Disapprove

With the agriculture department debacle, a stalling economy, and a unwillingness to back a lot of bills that reach his desk, President Edwards has had a bad first year in office. Foreign policy is where things have seemingly gone better, but the terror situation has not gotten significantly better, and more and more Americans are becoming testy on Iraq. Only 28% of Americans say we should stay in Iraq, with the significant change being a massive drop in Republican support. Senators Chuck Hagel and John Warner introduced legislation that would get troops out of Iraq within the next year, which was endorsed by several more liberal Democrats and some moderate Republicans. However, the bill failed to reach post-filibuster range, and was rejected.

The administrations combination of populist domestic policy and third way foreign policy, while on the outskirts what got him elected and seemingly popular, has thus far proven to be hindrance, with his rejection of a lot of bills causing grief among all sides. Indeed, it's time for a change of heart, before its too late.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Would we see any African American governors elected during the Edwards presidency ?

What happened to Deval Patrick?

[Maxwell]

Would we see any African American governors elected during the Edwards presidency ?

What happened to Deval Patrick?

Deval Patrick is running for Governor of Massachussets against State Senator Scott Brown, who is surprisingly capable at this point in time. It's a whole 'nother thing whether he wins against Patrick though.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Patrick BETTER win because most people are tired of GOP governors after 16 years in Massachusetts.

[Maxwell]

Patrick BETTER win because most people are tired of GOP governors after 16 years in Massachusetts.

lol k