Which state is more likely to vote Democrat in 2016?
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  Which state is more likely to vote Democrat in 2016?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Which state is more likely to vote Democrat in 2016?
#1
North Carolina		  
#2
Indiana		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 49

Author Topic: Which state is more likely to vote Democrat in 2016?  (Read 711 times)
Mr. Illini
liberty142
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« on: January 03, 2014, 01:14:24 AM »
Obama's two eye-raising (R) captures in 2008.

I personally went with NC because Indiana doesn't seem to really like the Clintons.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #1 on: January 03, 2014, 01:31:21 AM »
North Carolina. This is a no brainer.
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morgieb
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« Reply #2 on: January 03, 2014, 02:36:17 AM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on January 03, 2014, 01:31:21 AM
North Carolina. This is a no brainer.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #3 on: January 03, 2014, 02:54:31 AM »
I'm amazed that Obama won Indiana in 2008, especially since it pretty much went back to normal in 2012.
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Deus Naturae
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« Reply #4 on: January 03, 2014, 03:11:25 AM »
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LeBron
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« Reply #5 on: January 03, 2014, 06:00:50 AM »
Unless Bayh were to run, North Carolina. President Obama only lost NC by 2 points while he lost Indiana by 10 last year plus, NC is trending Democratic.
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Flake
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« Reply #6 on: January 03, 2014, 06:38:48 AM »
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #7 on: January 03, 2014, 07:21:31 AM »
North Carolina for sure. Obama's 2008 Indiana performance was very, very unique and probably won't happen again.
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #8 on: January 03, 2014, 07:26:42 AM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on January 03, 2014, 07:21:31 AM
North Carolina for sure. Obama's 2008 Indiana performance was very, very unique and probably won't happen again.
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Cryptic
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« Reply #9 on: January 03, 2014, 09:06:41 AM »
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JRP1994
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« Reply #10 on: January 03, 2014, 09:56:36 AM »
North Carolina

PVI: R+3
Expected neutral/generic result: R wins about 53-46-1 (R+7.00%)
Elasticity: 0.92
Elasticity-adjusted generic result: R+7.60

Indiana
PVI: R+5
Expected neutral/generic result: R wins about 55-44-1 (R+11.00%)
Elasticity: 0.99
Elasticity-adjusted generic result: R+11.11%

Assuming generic candidates, the answer is North Carolina.
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Cory
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« Reply #11 on: January 03, 2014, 10:18:03 AM »
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Consciously Unconscious
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« Reply #12 on: January 03, 2014, 04:49:15 PM »
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I Will Not Be Wrong
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« Reply #13 on: January 03, 2014, 04:51:51 PM »
North Carolina, but neither will in 2016. If a Republican wins in 2016, I can see NC going Democratic in 2020.
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #14 on: January 03, 2014, 09:44:58 PM »
Quote from: outofbox6 on January 03, 2014, 04:51:51 PM
North Carolina, but neither will in 2016.

Why not? I think North Carolina's demographic changes are very friendly to any generic Democratic candidate, but especially Hillary Clinton, who is at present the party's likeliest nominee. Beyond this the NC GOP has destroyed their brand for the time being.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #15 on: January 06, 2014, 07:43:28 PM »
Probably North Carolina, though both could vote Democratic in a Hillary Clinton vs. Ted Cruz or Rick Santorum race.
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