Snow Day!

[Ban my account ffs!]

The polar vortex was interrupted by a sudden stratospheric warming event.  This caused the vortex to completely split with one "daughter" vortex over central Canada and another over southern parts of Siberia.

This means all the cold has been displaced further south than usual while the high Arctic remains warm.



Somebody just did a paper on Watts Up With That (Climate change skeptic website) about the effects of a split polar vortex and predicted warmth for the eastern U.S. with the cold focused most on Eurasia with less over western Canada and the western U.S.  And that appears to be what will happen in the next week.

But then it could all come crashing down again for the east as far as the latest model runs are concerned as the early January pattern looks to reset with a ridge just off either U.S. coast with lots of cold in between covering the land.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Does that mean we are due for MORE cold in a few weeks??

[Ban my account ffs!]

Here's the northern hemisphere temperature anomalies for the winter so far (December 1st to February 11th, the latest date available)

You can see Minnesota has had a rough one... averaging more than 7*F below normal (9-10F below normal here).

Meanwhile Alaska has had a very mild winter.  



And one last one for those in the southern hemisphere:

Summer has been quite hot in southern Australia and in the subtropical areas of South America but has been chilly in Patagonia and in much of the ocean surrounding Antarctica, which has had record high ice cover.

[Ban my account ffs!]

Does that mean we are due for MORE cold in a few weeks??

It's hard to say.  Obviously by the time we're out 2 weeks we'll be late enough that another winter storm in the southeast is unlikely.  Also, it appears the Southeast Ridge might be in place to keep Florida and the coastal arc from North Carolina to Alabama warm while the cold dives straight down into Texas.

This would be a bad situation for the Ohio Valley since the cold air likes to stab into the southeast ridge at the surface, leading to a shallow layer of cold that encourages freezing rain.

[muon2]

Does that mean we are due for MORE cold in a few weeks??

It's hard to say.  Obviously by the time we're out 2 weeks we'll be late enough that another winter storm in the southeast is unlikely.  Also, it appears the Southeast Ridge might be in place to keep Florida and the coastal arc from North Carolina to Alabama warm while the cold dives straight down into Texas.

This would be a bad situation for the Ohio Valley since the cold air likes to stab into the southeast ridge at the surface, leading to a shallow layer of cold that encourages freezing rain.

The forecast next week in IL calls for low 40's in Chicago and 50's in central IL. That doesn't seem consistent with another cold stab, unless it setting up for the week after next.

[angus]

That's precisely why you should have done a bit at a time if possible rather than all at once, angus. (Or even done some while it was falling.)

I do appreciate the advice, and have given it much thought, and more than a little empiricism. 

When I lived in Iowa, that was my MO.  Pushing was always preferable to digging, so I'd go out three times for a 9-inch snow, pushing each time, rather than waiting till it was over and dealing with it, because that would invariably involve digging rather than just pushing.  But there the snow was big, flaky, dry Midwestern snow.  Much colder than here, but I never did mind getting snowed upon in that type of snow.  Here in this part of PA it is usually a heavy, wet, Eastern snow, and it's not the most pleasant thing to be standing in while pushing.  I've played both ways.  Here, I generally just wait till it's over and resign myself to the digging.  Also, it's not so damned cold here.  Positive 20s instead of negative 20s, so it's not terrible having to be out in it for an hour and a half.  Also, the snow here is good for snowmen and snowballs.  Never really could get a decent snowman out of the Midwestern snow.  Either because the snow was too dry or because my fingers were numbed even with thick gloves on, or both.

Anyway, on this particular day the call wasn't mine to make.  The snow started sometime in the middle of the night.  By the time I awoke it was so thick and heavy that we were far beyond the point of pushing, even if I'd gone out at 7AM.  It seemed right to just wait till it stopped, around noon.

Especially since we all had the day off. 

[angus]

Wretched.  We got another three inches or sow of heavy, wet snow overnight.  No cancellations though.  My son's school was off anyway for Valentine's Day.  

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Received a pre-recorded call from our municipality last night saying they're out of salt.  Perfect timing since we got blasted with a few more inches at rush hour today.  Fun Fun. 

[muon2]

For the first time since Jan 30, yesterday broke above freezing in Chicago. This week is the first real thaw of the winter with a high today of 40. I'm downstate where its even warmer and flooding from a rapid melt is a real concern. Add a temp in the mid-50's with thunderstorms tomorrow and the flood threat gets larger.

[angus]

We're getting rain today.  Actual liquid water is falling from the sky.  Haven't seen that in about a couple of months.  It is cleaning my car and the streets, but there's some concern about flooding.  From my office window, I can see snow removal vehicles down on the streets furiously clearing the areas around the drains. 

In some neighboring counties school was cancelled due to freezing rain, but here it's all rain.  No delays or cancellations.  Just wet socks.

[Ban my account ffs!]

Yesterday and today have been really nice with temperatuers near 40F!

The cold is coming back though and with a vengeance and because the Great Lakes are so frozen it will likely delay spring.  The ice cover on Lake Superior will have big consequences since the ice won't clear out until late spring and it will seriously reduce the time for the water to absorb the sun's heat.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

The city was paralyzed by an ice storm followed by beautiful sun and warmth. Weird day.

[Franknburger]

For Northern Germany, the winter is predicted to be over. Not really feeling like spring, though, just temperatures around +5° C. So far, the winter has been 2.2°C warmer than average.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

A 2 hour delay is probably most likely tomorrow.

[angus]

Two-hour delay here.  This one really didn't seem necessary, but it's nice not to be rushed in the morning.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Two-hour delay here.  This one really didn't seem necessary, but it's nice not to be rushed in the morning.

Really?  Damn.  You guys are rivaling Jokelahoma City when it comes to delays/cancellations. 

[muon2]

Winter wasn't over, yet. We got 1.3 inches of snow yesterday. Fortunately it cleared up so I can see the lunar eclipse now.

[angus]

Winter wasn't over, yet. We got 1.3 inches of snow yesterday. Fortunately it cleared up so I can see the lunar eclipse now.

Cloudy here.  No red moon.

I think winter's really over, so I can report that the 2013-14 season total here was 61.9 inches, or approximately three times the average from 1926 till now, but not a record.  Apparently that happened in 2009-10, when it snowed 72.5 inches.  (data from Millersville University Department of Meteorology)

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Snowing like crazy  here.....no accumulation.  Sunday it was 78 and I was in shorts drinking a martini on my patio.......ugh.

[angus]

I spoke too soon.  I think muon and gramps sent me some of their lovely weather.  On the way home tonight it was sleeting, and the expected low temp tonight is 25.  WTF?  It was in the 70s and sunny on Sunday and Monday. 

I wouldn't mind just one more snow day, though. 

[Hatman 🍁]

it was 26 C yesterday (79F) while today it was -5 (23F). Weird weather...

[Simfan34]

...

[Lief 🗽]

...

agreed.

[Хahar 🤔]

I'm glad temperatures in my room won't be over 80° tonight. I was having a very hard time sleeping.

[Ban my account ffs!]

We easily set some new record low temperatures.  Yesterday morning was 2F, beating the old record of 14F set in 1961.  Today areas south of here are due for a foot or more of snow.

But we should see 60s by Monday.