New England 2014 Congressional Races
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Author Topic: New England 2014 Congressional Races  (Read 2660 times)
Anti Democrat Democrat Club
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« on: January 04, 2014, 04:07:57 AM »

Dump everything involving all the competitive New England races here.

In NH-2, candidate Gary Lambert is in a bit of trouble for retweeting this. Democrats are alleging that by this person saying that "we needed a man with military experience" in office as Lambert saying that we needed a man in Congress.

In MA-6, John Tierney has a primary challenger. Seth Moulton, a centrist Iraq veteran, is seeking to run against John Tierney, and has picked up VoteVets' endorsement. He previously weighed an independent bid in 2012.

No fundraising totals yet, but there are a few competitive races that we can watch here.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #1 on: January 04, 2014, 07:54:02 AM »

In Maine, it looks like ME-2 could be competitive, with Raye being able to lead other democrats in a poll. This seat is open due to Mike Michaud's run for governor. ME-1 is Safe D and the Senate race is Safe R assuming Collins survives the primary.

In Vermont, Peter Welch is Safe, of course. Nothing else going on there.

In New Hampshire, it looks like both House races at least lean to the democrats. And in the Senate, Shaheen is heavily favored due to a weak republican bench. But these could subject to change.

In Rhode Island, Jack Reed is beyond Safe for his Senate seat. The two democratic representatives I'm assuming are safe as well, but I don't know a whole lot about these yet.

In Massachusetts, Markey's seat leans in his favor, even if Gomez runs again. It looks like it might be a repeat of the 2013 special race. And in Congress all nine congressional races except maybe MA-6 are safe for the democrats.

And finally, Connecticut, no Senate race, but it looks like all districts are in democrats favor at this point. The only one that looks pickup-able (if that's a word, lol) for the republicans is the 5th district.
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progressive85
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« Reply #2 on: January 04, 2014, 11:07:37 AM »

I think Mike Michaud's open seat, Carol Shea-Porter's, and John Tierney's will be the 3 most competitive in New England.
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« Reply #3 on: January 04, 2014, 11:10:49 AM »

I'd say MA-6 Leans D with Tierney, Likely D with Moulton. Really depends on whether people still care about the gambling scandal his family was implicated in, but considering how many Republicans crossed over to Tisei, Tierney will probably go down in the primary if that's still relevant.
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Sol
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« Reply #4 on: January 04, 2014, 07:05:08 PM »

How is RI-1 shaping up? I know Cicilline has had some strong challengers, although I'm not sure why he's had so much trouble in the past.
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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #5 on: January 04, 2014, 07:26:57 PM »

How is RI-1 shaping up? I know Cicilline has had some strong challengers, although I'm not sure why he's had so much trouble in the past.

Wasn't that because Providence became broke in the aftermath of his time as mayor?
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NerdyBohemian
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« Reply #6 on: January 05, 2014, 12:13:05 AM »

How is RI-1 shaping up? I know Cicilline has had some strong challengers, although I'm not sure why he's had so much trouble in the past.

Wasn't that because Providence became broke in the aftermath of his time as mayor?

^This. Though I think the heavy involvement of Republicans in this race last election was fools gold for them. If it were a wave election during a midterm Cicilline could have been narrowly defeated. In a presidential year, with Rhode Islanders willing to vote for anything with D next to their name it wasn't going to happen. Unless another major scandal breaks out, Cicilline is holding onto this seat as long as he wants.

I for one enjoying having a sassy gay man as my representative. Our previous representative was Patrick Kennedy who felt entitled to the seat. Cicilline is at every local event you can imagine and is always interacting with his constituents. I've met him a few times.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #7 on: January 05, 2014, 01:44:40 AM »

Kuster doesn't impress me too much, but Lambert (and other candidates i know in NH-02) seem too conservative to me in this Democratic-leaning district in more-less neutral year. Republicans would need some social moderate (Bob Odell?) here.

In NH-01 Guinta will, most likely, win primary, though Innis would be, most likely, better general election candidate

In Massachusetts MA-06, and, may be MA-09 are the only of interest, but lot depends on candidate recruitment, scandals (as Tierney case has shown) and other factors.

In Maine ME-02 will be very interesting IF Raye wins primary, but only in such case

All other racesare unlikely (so far) to produce surprises.
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« Reply #8 on: January 05, 2014, 08:52:54 AM »

Kuster doesn't impress me too much, but Lambert (and other candidates i know in NH-02) seem too conservative to me in this Democratic-leaning district in more-less neutral year. Republicans would need some social moderate (Bob Odell?) here.

In NH-01 Guinta will, most likely, win primary, though Innis would be, most likely, better general election candidate

*Odell would be a good candidate, but he's really getting up there in age. He'll be 70 by 2014, so he obviously won't be around for that long. Jeannie Forrester would be a good candidate as well, and Morse would be good too if he wasn't freshly elected as Senate President. Lambert and Garcia are too conservative for the district.

*Like I've been saying, Innis is a nonfactor. Not only did he vote in the Democratic primary in 2012, he voted for the more liberal candidate who ran on instating an income tax because they worked together. Considering this is a state that's fairly economically conservative, I don't see a plausible path to victory for Innis.

And in other news, Susan Collins' primary challenger, Erick Bennett, has been caught blaming everyone else but him for his domestic violence conviction.

Something tells me an MRA who's openly squawking about LE MISANDRY won't win in the primary.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #9 on: January 05, 2014, 12:18:13 PM »

Kuster doesn't impress me too much, but Lambert (and other candidates i know in NH-02) seem too conservative to me in this Democratic-leaning district in more-less neutral year. Republicans would need some social moderate (Bob Odell?) here.

In NH-01 Guinta will, most likely, win primary, though Innis would be, most likely, better general election candidate

Jeannie Forrester would be a good candidate as well

Is not she a social conservative? If so - not especially good recommendations for this district.
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« Reply #10 on: January 05, 2014, 03:35:45 PM »
« Edited: January 05, 2014, 03:48:09 PM by Bill Belichick's Hoodie »

Kuster doesn't impress me too much, but Lambert (and other candidates i know in NH-02) seem too conservative to me in this Democratic-leaning district in more-less neutral year. Republicans would need some social moderate (Bob Odell?) here.

In NH-01 Guinta will, most likely, win primary, though Innis would be, most likely, better general election candidate

Jeannie Forrester would be a good candidate as well

Is not she a social conservative? If so - not especially good recommendations for this district.

Actually I'm wrong. Forrester's in Meredith, which is just inside NH-1.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #11 on: January 05, 2014, 10:56:53 PM »

Then - who in NH-02? Usually, when it sent Republicans to House, they (even Gregg, even more so - Bass) were not especially conservative: more often - "typical New England Republicans". But, after tea-party growth, there are fewer such candidates now.
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« Reply #12 on: January 06, 2014, 01:43:00 AM »

Their best bet was Chuck Morse, but he's not running. The Republicans' bench here is very weak.

At this point they might as well run Charlie Bass again.
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« Reply #13 on: January 16, 2014, 11:53:11 AM »

Scott Brown appearing at a campaign kickoff. In Massachusetts. For MA-9 candidate John Chapman.

If he's looking to prove he's a New Hampshirite, he's doing a horrible job.
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« Reply #14 on: January 17, 2014, 01:43:37 PM »

http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2014/01/16/facing-potential-challege-from-scott-brown-sen-jeanne-shaheen-pulls-million-last-three-months/ctNZGftf83roqiNi8OMlsL/story.html

Shaheen's most recent fundraising numbers are in... 1.1 million dollars raised, 3.4 million dollars in the bank. Is this enough to take on Brown?
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
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« Reply #15 on: January 20, 2014, 12:26:25 AM »


Yes since Brown is a paper tiger at best.
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SamInTheSouth
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« Reply #16 on: February 04, 2014, 06:36:23 PM »

NH Congressional Dems not polling well at all.   Shea-Porter trailing Guinta

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/house/nh/new_hampshire_1st_district_guinta_vs_sheaporter-4142.html

She leads Innis by 10, however, but I'm guessing that may be because he's not as well known as Guinta.  I haven't seen any polling on the GOP primary.  It would be kind of funny if Guinta beat her again and the two keep trading the seat back and forth.  It will be like Hill and Sodrel all over again in IN-9.

Kuster holds a small lead over her two potential challengers, but even then she is only polling in the 30s.  Again, not very good, so I'm guessing her lead is also because her challengers aren't a known quantity at this point in time.  Way too many undecideds for a race with an incumbent.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/house/nh/new_hampshire_2nd_district_lambert_vs_kuster-4144.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/house/nh/new_hampshire_2nd_district_garcia_vs_kuster-4289.html

Shaheen still looks okay against Brown.  There was a poll that came out a few days ago showing the two of them tied, but I'm thinking that was an outlier because it's not being validated by any other.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/nh/new_hampshire_senate_brown_vs_shaheen-3894.html
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« Reply #17 on: February 04, 2014, 06:56:50 PM »
« Edited: February 04, 2014, 06:59:17 PM by The Real Slim Sawxy »

Coming from someone's who closely follows New Hampshire politics, I don't take WMUR polls seriously at all - even the Shaheen result. While they were spot-on at the end of the election, they're always all over the place before it. Looking at their congressional poll in mid-October right now, it had Shea-Porter up on Guinta by 16 (48-32). Now we're supposed to believe that a former incumbent's gained over an eighth of the district's support while Shea-Porter's hemmorhaging voters?

I'm not trying to say Guinta's a paper tiger like the Republicans in NH-2, but if a poll has a 22-point swing over three months, it's undeniably junk. Garcia and Lambert are both too conservative for NH-2, and the latter had no chance of keeping his seat in 2012, so I'm not worried about Kuster at all. Those candidates aren't Bob Odell or Charlie Bass.
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