Jim Gerlach retiring

[RogueBeaver]

Just breaking.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

D+1

[Hifly]

D+1

Are you on narcotics?

[Vosem]

D+1

Would've been true in his old district, but this new one is safely R. The talk is that the most likely successor is former St. Rep. Curt Schroeder (who tried to run for this seat when Gerlach briefly retired in 2010).

[ElectionsGuy]

OK. This district might be competitive, but anybody who thinks the dems can count on this for another pickup is dreaming. The district went 51-48 Romney.

[Tender Branson]

D+1

Are you on narcotics?

Remember that 2014 could see depressed GOP turnout in PA, because of how much a failure Corbett is ... Probably making this district very competetive. But it would need a good DEM candidate as well.

[minionofmidas]

Mostly though, it's a forum meme.

[Tender Branson]

BTW: Is this Phil's CD ?

[Vosem]

BTW: Is this Phil's CD ?

I think he's in Allyson Schwartz's PA-13 (which is also open) -- he was definitely there in the 2000s but redistricting might've moved him out.

[minionofmidas]

Certainly not to this district, though.

[DrScholl]

Bye, trick. I don't care if Republicans on here get angry and start calling names, this is a good pickup opportunity for Democrats.

[Kevin]

D+1

Are you on narcotics?

Remember that 2014 could see depressed GOP turnout in PA, because of how much a failure Corbett is ... Probably making this district very competetive. But it would need a good DEM candidate as well.

Idk about that as PA has a long history of ticket splitting. And not claiming that Corbett will win but incumbents usually have a higher performance on election night then  polls indicate.

[IceSpear]

Even with the gerrymander this seat will be competitive.

Also, the sane Republicans seem to be dropping like flies. Young, Wolf, Latham, Capito, Runyan, and now Gerlach. The GOP House will be controlled even more by the far-right elements of the party after the midterms.

[Landslide Lyndon]

D+1

Would've been true in his old district, but this new one is safely R.

lolwut?
This district went 53-46 for Obama in 2008 under its new lines.

[NewYorkExpress]

Another Tossup District... This one Tilts R at first but could flip with some effort.

[smoltchanov]

Well, a "sane conservative" (which Gerlach is according to my criteria) is a "moderate" in present day Republican party. Almost ready to bet, that a winner of Republican primary in his district in may will be more conservative.

[free my dawg]

D+1

Would've been true in his old district, but this new one is safely R.

Are you on narcotics? Open R+2 seat, with the worst governor in the country heading the ticket, and it's safe?

I'm hoping McGinty drops out and opts for a run here. Anyways, I'm wondering about the three candidates floated on PoliticsPA. Could Phil give us some info on them?

[Vosem]

D+1

Would've been true in his old district, but this new one is safely R.

Are you on narcotics? Open R+2 seat, with the worst governor in the country heading the ticket, and it's safe?

Voted for Romney by 3 points while the country voted Obama by 4; it's R+7, and that's combined with a history of voting more Republican downballot (Gerlach survived 2006 and 2008 without much experience or seniority under his belt in a more Democratic version of this district). Safe, on second thought, is an exaggeration, but it's still no worse than Likely R.

Anyways, I'm wondering about the three candidates floated on PoliticsPA. Could Phil give us some info on them?

I second this

[smoltchanov]

Well, now, when district dips into conservative Lebanon county, there is a risk for Republicans to run an extremely right-wing candidate from there and, in such case, seriously risk to lose. But moderate conservative must win this district for Republicans....

[free my dawg]

D+1

Would've been true in his old district, but this new one is safely R.

Are you on narcotics? Open R+2 seat, with the worst governor in the country heading the ticket, and it's safe?

Voted for Romney by 3 points while the country voted Obama by 4; it's R+7, and that's combined with a history of voting more Republican downballot (Gerlach survived 2006 and 2008 without much experience or seniority under his belt in a more Democratic version of this district). Safe, on second thought, is an exaggeration, but it's still no worse than Likely R.

Anyways, I'm wondering about the three candidates floated on PoliticsPA. Could Phil give us some info on them?

I second this

Cook says it's R+2, not R+7. I can tell you from personal experience that it's swingy, and that if it wasn't for Gerlach being a fighter and a weak Republican bench, this seat would be Democratic. At most this seat Leans R.

Someone like Sam Rohrer could very well blow this seat for Republicans. All I know is that he's staunchly conservative to the point where he attracted the ire of ThinkProgress.

[Landslide Lyndon]

D+1

Would've been true in his old district, but this new one is safely R.

Are you on narcotics? Open R+2 seat, with the worst governor in the country heading the ticket, and it's safe?

Voted for Romney by 3 points while the country voted Obama by 4; it's R+7, and that's combined with a history of voting more Republican downballot (Gerlach survived 2006 and 2008 without much experience or seniority under his belt in a more Democratic version of this district). Safe, on second thought, is an exaggeration, but it's still no worse than Likely R.

Obviously you haven't the faintest idea how to calculate a district's PVI.
Then again, if only this was the first thing where you shoot your mouth without having the faintest idea what you're talking about.

[DrScholl]

D+1

Would've been true in his old district, but this new one is safely R.

Are you on narcotics? Open R+2 seat, with the worst governor in the country heading the ticket, and it's safe?

Voted for Romney by 3 points while the country voted Obama by 4; it's R+7, and that's combined with a history of voting more Republican downballot (Gerlach survived 2006 and 2008 without much experience or seniority under his belt in a more Democratic version of this district). Safe, on second thought, is an exaggeration, but it's still no worse than Likely R.

Anyways, I'm wondering about the three candidates floated on PoliticsPA. Could Phil give us some info on them?

I second this

It's not R+7, it was EVEN in 2008, R+4 in 2012, that doesn't anywhere close to equal R+7.

[ElectionsGuy]

D+1

Would've been true in his old district, but this new one is safely R.

Are you on narcotics? Open R+2 seat, with the worst governor in the country heading the ticket, and it's safe?

Voted for Romney by 3 points while the country voted Obama by 4; it's R+7, and that's combined with a history of voting more Republican downballot (Gerlach survived 2006 and 2008 without much experience or seniority under his belt in a more Democratic version of this district). Safe, on second thought, is an exaggeration, but it's still no worse than Likely R.

Anyways, I'm wondering about the three candidates floated on PoliticsPA. Could Phil give us some info on them?

I second this

It's not R+7, it was EVEN in 2008, R+4 in 2012, that doesn't anywhere close to equal R+7.

PVI wise its R+3/4, although margin of victory wise its R+7.

[Vosem]

D+1

Would've been true in his old district, but this new one is safely R.

Are you on narcotics? Open R+2 seat, with the worst governor in the country heading the ticket, and it's safe?

Voted for Romney by 3 points while the country voted Obama by 4; it's R+7, and that's combined with a history of voting more Republican downballot (Gerlach survived 2006 and 2008 without much experience or seniority under his belt in a more Democratic version of this district). Safe, on second thought, is an exaggeration, but it's still no worse than Likely R.

Anyways, I'm wondering about the three candidates floated on PoliticsPA. Could Phil give us some info on them?

I second this

Cook says it's R+2, not R+7.

It was dead even in 2008 (under the new boundaries; voted 53-46 Obama just like the country), but then R+7 in 2012 (51-48 Romney as the country was 51-47 Obama). Under the old boundaries, it was significantly more Obama but proceeded to elect Gerlach anyway. The district is clearly more Republican than Democratic, and getting to be more so as time goes on. I don't know where Cook is getting R+2 from, but I think it's a bit of an understatement.

I can tell you from personal experience that it's swingy, and that if it wasn't for Gerlach being a fighter and a weak Republican bench

Presumably you mean weak Democratic bench?

, this seat would be Democratic.

It's sort of a truism to say that 'if a seat had weaker Republicans and stronger Democrats, it would be more Democratic.' It doesn't, though.

At most this seat Leans R.

I have to respectfully disagree.

Someone like Sam Rohrer could very well blow this seat for Republicans. All I know is that he's staunchly conservative to the point where he attracted the ire of ThinkProgress.

Eh, House elections tend to be more nationalized nowadays. Republicans have blown Senate seats safer than this one repeatedly with bad candidates, but the only seats Democrats hold in the House more Republican than this one are entrenched incumbents, with the sole exception of Ann Kirkpatrick in Arizona. I'll grant you that yes, if Republicans nominate someone too conservative for this district, it could become a Tossup, but without the field being set, I don't think Democrats can bank on that happening, as it's not so common in House races. Contingencies like that are what the 'Likely' rating is for.

[IceSpear]

Well, a "sane conservative" (which Gerlach is according to my criteria) is a "moderate" in present day Republican party. Almost ready to bet, that a winner of Republican primary in his district in may will be more conservative.

Yeah. Liberal and moderate Republicans are long gone, and if these last few election cycles are any indication, sane ones are on their way out the door.