Jim Gerlach retiring
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DrScholl
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« Reply #25 on: January 06, 2014, 02:58:47 PM »


Are you on narcotics? Open R+2 seat, with the worst governor in the country heading the ticket, and it's safe?

Voted for Romney by 3 points while the country voted Obama by 4; it's R+7, and that's combined with a history of voting more Republican downballot (Gerlach survived 2006 and 2008 without much experience or seniority under his belt in a more Democratic version of this district). Safe, on second thought, is an exaggeration, but it's still no worse than Likely R.

Anyways, I'm wondering about the three candidates floated on PoliticsPA. Could Phil give us some info on them?

I second this Smiley



It's not R+7, it was EVEN in 2008, R+4 in 2012, that doesn't anywhere close to equal R+7.

PVI wise its R+3/4, although margin of victory wise its R+7.

Maybe under Dean Chambers math, but it went for Romney 51-48, which is a 3% margin of victory, not 7%.
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Nathan
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« Reply #26 on: January 06, 2014, 03:02:35 PM »


Are you on narcotics? Open R+2 seat, with the worst governor in the country heading the ticket, and it's safe?

Voted for Romney by 3 points while the country voted Obama by 4; it's R+7, and that's combined with a history of voting more Republican downballot (Gerlach survived 2006 and 2008 without much experience or seniority under his belt in a more Democratic version of this district). Safe, on second thought, is an exaggeration, but it's still no worse than Likely R.

Anyways, I'm wondering about the three candidates floated on PoliticsPA. Could Phil give us some info on them?

I second this Smiley



It's not R+7, it was EVEN in 2008, R+4 in 2012, that doesn't anywhere close to equal R+7.

PVI wise its R+3/4, although margin of victory wise its R+7.

Maybe under Dean Chambers math, but it went for Romney 51-48, which is a 3% margin of victory, not 7%.

PVIs are calculated according to the difference between the margin in the area whose PVI is being discussed and the margin nationwide, not by the former on its own.
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Vosem
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« Reply #27 on: January 06, 2014, 03:04:47 PM »


Are you on narcotics? Open R+2 seat, with the worst governor in the country heading the ticket, and it's safe?

Voted for Romney by 3 points while the country voted Obama by 4; it's R+7, and that's combined with a history of voting more Republican downballot (Gerlach survived 2006 and 2008 without much experience or seniority under his belt in a more Democratic version of this district). Safe, on second thought, is an exaggeration, but it's still no worse than Likely R.


Obviously you haven't the faintest idea how to calculate a district's PVI.
Then again, if only this was the first thing where you shoot your mouth without having the faintest idea what you're talking about.

We're talking about how far the district was from the country as a whole at the 2012 election. PVI measures only 2-party share and goes back to the last two elections; my measure is a bit cruder. I know how to calculate PVI.


Are you on narcotics? Open R+2 seat, with the worst governor in the country heading the ticket, and it's safe?

Voted for Romney by 3 points while the country voted Obama by 4; it's R+7, and that's combined with a history of voting more Republican downballot (Gerlach survived 2006 and 2008 without much experience or seniority under his belt in a more Democratic version of this district). Safe, on second thought, is an exaggeration, but it's still no worse than Likely R.

Anyways, I'm wondering about the three candidates floated on PoliticsPA. Could Phil give us some info on them?

I second this Smiley



It's not R+7, it was EVEN in 2008, R+4 in 2012, that doesn't anywhere close to equal R+7.

PVI wise its R+3/4, although margin of victory wise its R+7.

Maybe under Dean Chambers math, but it went for Romney 51-48, which is a 3% margin of victory, not 7%.

I'm talking about how far it was from the country's result in 2012, not what the margin was or what the PVI is or any other measurement! This is not that hard, guys.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #28 on: January 06, 2014, 03:07:12 PM »

You were also lucky with the rounding, it's actually about 6.3 more R than the nation in 2012 and about 0.2 more R than the nation in 2008.
But yeah, I've no idea where Invisible Obama gets the "+4 in 2012" idea from.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #29 on: January 06, 2014, 03:09:12 PM »

Ok guys. I just talked to Phil and his message is to be patient. He is currently unavailable but as soon as he can he will post an expert analysis on Gerlach's retirement and his would-be successors.
 
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #30 on: January 06, 2014, 03:12:13 PM »

I wonder if he's planning on challenging Corbett in the primary...mwa ha ha ha ha ha ha...
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Vosem
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« Reply #31 on: January 06, 2014, 03:13:30 PM »

You were also lucky with the rounding, it's actually about 6.3 more R than the nation in 2012 and about 0.2 more R than the nation in 2008.

Meh, my basic point still stands.

Ok guys. I just talked to Phil and his message is to be patient. He is currently unavailable but as soon as he can he will post an expert analysis on Gerlach's retirement and his would-be successors.

Looking forward to it.

I wonder if he's planning on challenging Corbett in the primary...mwa ha ha ha ha ha ha...

Hope so, but I think if that were the case he'd've announced it by now.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #32 on: January 06, 2014, 03:20:32 PM »

I wonder if he's planning on challenging Corbett in the primary...mwa ha ha ha ha ha ha...

His adviser said he won't be running for any office.

More likely is that he's tired of being in the party where people such as Ted Cruz, Michele Bachmann, and Louie Gohmert run the show. And tired of being a House member in general (he seemed to want out in 2010).
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SawxDem
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« Reply #33 on: January 06, 2014, 03:28:36 PM »

I wonder if he's planning on challenging Corbett in the primary...mwa ha ha ha ha ha ha...

Well given the fact that I'm not panicking, he's ruled himself out.

To his credit, if Gerlach did decide to challenge Corbett, he would probably win in a landslide, and he'd definitely make a race with Schwartz. She isn't exactly the right Democrat to win here.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #34 on: January 06, 2014, 03:33:22 PM »

You were also lucky with the rounding, it's actually about 6.3 more R than the nation in 2012 and about 0.2 more R than the nation in 2008.
But yeah, I've no idea where Invisible Obama gets the "+4 in 2012" idea from.

I think some people are confused about the actual percentage. Romney got 47% nationwide and 51% in this particular district, which is about R+4 in 2012 alone. It's a 51-48 Romney district. Check the numbers before being condescending, okay?
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DrScholl
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« Reply #35 on: January 06, 2014, 03:34:47 PM »


Are you on narcotics? Open R+2 seat, with the worst governor in the country heading the ticket, and it's safe?

Voted for Romney by 3 points while the country voted Obama by 4; it's R+7, and that's combined with a history of voting more Republican downballot (Gerlach survived 2006 and 2008 without much experience or seniority under his belt in a more Democratic version of this district). Safe, on second thought, is an exaggeration, but it's still no worse than Likely R.

Anyways, I'm wondering about the three candidates floated on PoliticsPA. Could Phil give us some info on them?

I second this Smiley



It's not R+7, it was EVEN in 2008, R+4 in 2012, that doesn't anywhere close to equal R+7.

PVI wise its R+3/4, although margin of victory wise its R+7.

Maybe under Dean Chambers math, but it went for Romney 51-48, which is a 3% margin of victory, not 7%.

PVIs are calculated according to the difference between the margin in the area whose PVI is being discussed and the margin nationwide, not by the former on its own.

I know that, I'm not an idiot. What I don't get is where the R+7 number comes from, Cook has nothing like that on his site. If people have their own system of PVI, that's fine, but it's clearly not the same as what Cook has, which is R+1.
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SawxDem
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« Reply #36 on: January 06, 2014, 03:39:21 PM »

He's averaging the MOV, not the specific vote percentages.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #37 on: January 06, 2014, 03:41:33 PM »

You were also lucky with the rounding, it's actually about 6.3 more R than the nation in 2012 and about 0.2 more R than the nation in 2008.
But yeah, I've no idea where Invisible Obama gets the "+4 in 2012" idea from.

I think some people are confused about the actual percentage. Romney got 47% nationwide and 51% in this particular district, which is about R+4 in 2012 alone. It's a 51-48 Romney district. Check the numbers before being condescending, okay?
Obviously, I did check the numbers. Given that you wrote "even in 2008, then R+4 in 2012" the confused person would have been you. Although thanks for clearing the source of your confusion up, I see where you got the idea from now.

(And I haven't the slightest clue what it says on Cook's website. Maybe he has his own set of election results that are different from the Kos-compiled ones?)
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DrScholl
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« Reply #38 on: January 06, 2014, 03:45:02 PM »

You were also lucky with the rounding, it's actually about 6.3 more R than the nation in 2012 and about 0.2 more R than the nation in 2008.
But yeah, I've no idea where Invisible Obama gets the "+4 in 2012" idea from.

I think some people are confused about the actual percentage. Romney got 47% nationwide and 51% in this particular district, which is about R+4 in 2012 alone. It's a 51-48 Romney district. Check the numbers before being condescending, okay?
Obviously, I did check the numbers. Given that you wrote "even in 2008, then R+4 in 2012" the confused person would have been you. Although thanks for clearing the source of your confusion up, I see where you got the idea from now.

(And I haven't the slightest clue what it says on Cook's website. Maybe he has his own set of election results that are different from the Kos-compiled ones?)

EVEN means that the district voted that same as the nation, I should have put it in caps, but I assumed people here would get what I meant. Cook averages numbers out over two cycles, so EVEN in 2008 and R+4 in 2012 averages out to R+1 according to his averaging.
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henster
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« Reply #39 on: January 06, 2014, 03:45:57 PM »

THIS is why we need the strongest candidate running for Governor who can win in a blowout against Corbett and have coattails to help Dems in these races. Schwartz has some serious baggage and while she would defeat Corbett we wouldn't see big margins like we would if we had a moderate like McCord.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #40 on: January 06, 2014, 05:05:43 PM »

Needless to say, a surprise here especially after only one election in the new, favorable district. Go figure. Before this news went public, the buzz was that he was leaving to take on Corbett. Nothing else made sense. But his team threw water on that pretty quickly. He isn't running.

Even with the other issues we will have this year, the Dems won't get this seat. We have some strong candidates.

My take on the potential candidates (as requested):

State Senator Rafferty is a popular official. He's moderate and well known. Not sure he'd give up his spot now but he said he's considering it.

Ryan Costello is a young county commissioner. Keep an eye on him. Also keep an eye on his Republican colleague commissioner, Terence Farrell. He's worth some research if you're really interested in this race.

The Chester county GOP chair, Val DiGiorgio, is rumored as well. Obvious advantage would be institutional support. He's also the current county controller so he has electability cred outside of his party advantages.

I doubt Sam Rohrer runs but he has a strong following that could propel him to victory in the primary. And yes, he could win the General.

For the Dems: McGinty could make it interesting but I don't know how strong her ties are out there. She's originally from my area (literally five minutes from me). She said she definitely isn't doing it. Senator Casey's brother is also in this new district.

There's a buzz about this guy Michael Parrish, a former Republican with a background in finance. I'm guessing he'll be the guy if Casey doesn't run.


It's amazing how ignorant our Moderate Hero is. Must be unaware of redistricting. Not a safe GOP seat but we are certainly favored.


I think he's in Allyson Schwartz's PA-13 (which is also open) -- he was definitely there in the 2000s but redistricting might've moved him out.

I was in the old 13th. I'm now a street outside of it thanks to redistricting. I'm in PA 1 now. I am no where near the new PA 6. I live in Philadelphia.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #41 on: January 06, 2014, 05:21:36 PM »

Bye, trick. I don't care if Republicans on here get angry and start calling names, this is a good pickup opportunity for Democrats.

Nobody's saying it's not. It's a narrow district. Please stop projecting.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #42 on: January 06, 2014, 05:49:28 PM »


Are you on narcotics? Open R+2 seat, with the worst governor in the country heading the ticket, and it's safe?

Voted for Romney by 3 points while the country voted Obama by 4; it's R+7, and that's combined with a history of voting more Republican downballot (Gerlach survived 2006 and 2008 without much experience or seniority under his belt in a more Democratic version of this district). Safe, on second thought, is an exaggeration, but it's still no worse than Likely R.

Anyways, I'm wondering about the three candidates floated on PoliticsPA. Could Phil give us some info on them?

I second this Smiley



It's not R+7, it was EVEN in 2008, R+4 in 2012, that doesn't anywhere close to equal R+7.

PVI wise its R+3/4, although margin of victory wise its R+7.

Maybe under Dean Chambers math, but it went for Romney 51-48, which is a 3% margin of victory, not 7%.

Yes, Romney won by 3%, but Obama won overall by 4%, therefore its 7 points more republican than the nation. That's what I'm talking about.
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SawxDem
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« Reply #43 on: January 06, 2014, 05:53:31 PM »
« Edited: January 06, 2014, 06:18:56 PM by Bill Belichick's Hoodie »

"I reject your version of reality and substitute my own."



This is how you calculate PVI. This isn't even close to R+7.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #44 on: January 06, 2014, 05:56:36 PM »

Guys, calculate this: the seat is staying Republican. Next...
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DrScholl
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« Reply #45 on: January 06, 2014, 05:57:42 PM »


Are you on narcotics? Open R+2 seat, with the worst governor in the country heading the ticket, and it's safe?

Voted for Romney by 3 points while the country voted Obama by 4; it's R+7, and that's combined with a history of voting more Republican downballot (Gerlach survived 2006 and 2008 without much experience or seniority under his belt in a more Democratic version of this district). Safe, on second thought, is an exaggeration, but it's still no worse than Likely R.

Anyways, I'm wondering about the three candidates floated on PoliticsPA. Could Phil give us some info on them?

I second this Smiley



It's not R+7, it was EVEN in 2008, R+4 in 2012, that doesn't anywhere close to equal R+7.

PVI wise its R+3/4, although margin of victory wise its R+7.

Maybe under Dean Chambers math, but it went for Romney 51-48, which is a 3% margin of victory, not 7%.

Yes, Romney won by 3%, but Obama won overall by 4%, therefore its 7 points more republican than the nation. That's what I'm talking about.

That's your own math, it's not PVI. PVI is Charlie Cook's method and that's not how he does it.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #46 on: January 06, 2014, 06:04:51 PM »

Bye, trick. I don't care if Republicans on here get angry and start calling names, this is a good pickup opportunity for Democrats.

Nobody's saying it's not. It's a narrow district. Please stop projecting.

What projecting? At least one poster already declared the seat safe.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #47 on: January 06, 2014, 06:07:26 PM »


Are you on narcotics? Open R+2 seat, with the worst governor in the country heading the ticket, and it's safe?

Voted for Romney by 3 points while the country voted Obama by 4; it's R+7, and that's combined with a history of voting more Republican downballot (Gerlach survived 2006 and 2008 without much experience or seniority under his belt in a more Democratic version of this district). Safe, on second thought, is an exaggeration, but it's still no worse than Likely R.

Anyways, I'm wondering about the three candidates floated on PoliticsPA. Could Phil give us some info on them?

I second this Smiley



It's not R+7, it was EVEN in 2008, R+4 in 2012, that doesn't anywhere close to equal R+7.

PVI wise its R+3/4, although margin of victory wise its R+7.

Maybe under Dean Chambers math, but it went for Romney 51-48, which is a 3% margin of victory, not 7%.

Yes, Romney won by 3%, but Obama won overall by 4%, therefore its 7 points more republican than the nation. That's what I'm talking about.

That's your own math, it's not PVI. PVI is Charlie Cook's method and that's not how he does it.

I never claimed that was PVI, that wasn't supposed to be PVI. When I said that it was margin of victory wise, that's what I meant.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #48 on: January 06, 2014, 06:22:44 PM »

The Governor's race isn't going to matter that much. Gerlach surviced Swann getting 38% and Santorum getting 41%, and I am sure that whoever the GOP candidate is will be okay with Corbett's numbers, whatever they turn out to be.

The shame of it is, whoever the replacement is, they probably won't be as good as Jim Gerlach.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #49 on: January 06, 2014, 06:38:31 PM »


Are you on narcotics? Open R+2 seat, with the worst governor in the country heading the ticket, and it's safe?

Voted for Romney by 3 points while the country voted Obama by 4; it's R+7, and that's combined with a history of voting more Republican downballot (Gerlach survived 2006 and 2008 without much experience or seniority under his belt in a more Democratic version of this district). Safe, on second thought, is an exaggeration, but it's still no worse than Likely R.

Anyways, I'm wondering about the three candidates floated on PoliticsPA. Could Phil give us some info on them?

I second this Smiley



It's not R+7, it was EVEN in 2008, R+4 in 2012, that doesn't anywhere close to equal R+7.

PVI wise its R+3/4, although margin of victory wise its R+7.

Maybe under Dean Chambers math, but it went for Romney 51-48, which is a 3% margin of victory, not 7%.

Yes, Romney won by 3%, but Obama won overall by 4%, therefore its 7 points more republican than the nation. That's what I'm talking about.

That's your own math, it's not PVI. PVI is Charlie Cook's method and that's not how he does it.

I never claimed that was PVI, that wasn't supposed to be PVI. When I said that it was margin of victory wise, that's what I meant.

But that's not how margin of victory is even calculated. That's very odd math.
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