Jim Gerlach retiring

[ElectionsGuy]

OK. This district might be competitive, but anybody who thinks the dems can count on this for another pickup is dreaming. The district went 51-48 Romney.

[ElectionsGuy]

D+1

Would've been true in his old district, but this new one is safely R.

Are you on narcotics? Open R+2 seat, with the worst governor in the country heading the ticket, and it's safe?

Voted for Romney by 3 points while the country voted Obama by 4; it's R+7, and that's combined with a history of voting more Republican downballot (Gerlach survived 2006 and 2008 without much experience or seniority under his belt in a more Democratic version of this district). Safe, on second thought, is an exaggeration, but it's still no worse than Likely R.

Anyways, I'm wondering about the three candidates floated on PoliticsPA. Could Phil give us some info on them?

I second this

It's not R+7, it was EVEN in 2008, R+4 in 2012, that doesn't anywhere close to equal R+7.

PVI wise its R+3/4, although margin of victory wise its R+7.

[ElectionsGuy]

D+1

Would've been true in his old district, but this new one is safely R.

Are you on narcotics? Open R+2 seat, with the worst governor in the country heading the ticket, and it's safe?

Voted for Romney by 3 points while the country voted Obama by 4; it's R+7, and that's combined with a history of voting more Republican downballot (Gerlach survived 2006 and 2008 without much experience or seniority under his belt in a more Democratic version of this district). Safe, on second thought, is an exaggeration, but it's still no worse than Likely R.

Anyways, I'm wondering about the three candidates floated on PoliticsPA. Could Phil give us some info on them?

I second this

It's not R+7, it was EVEN in 2008, R+4 in 2012, that doesn't anywhere close to equal R+7.

PVI wise its R+3/4, although margin of victory wise its R+7.

Maybe under Dean Chambers math, but it went for Romney 51-48, which is a 3% margin of victory, not 7%.

Yes, Romney won by 3%, but Obama won overall by 4%, therefore its 7 points more republican than the nation. That's what I'm talking about.

[ElectionsGuy]

D+1

Would've been true in his old district, but this new one is safely R.

Are you on narcotics? Open R+2 seat, with the worst governor in the country heading the ticket, and it's safe?

Voted for Romney by 3 points while the country voted Obama by 4; it's R+7, and that's combined with a history of voting more Republican downballot (Gerlach survived 2006 and 2008 without much experience or seniority under his belt in a more Democratic version of this district). Safe, on second thought, is an exaggeration, but it's still no worse than Likely R.

Anyways, I'm wondering about the three candidates floated on PoliticsPA. Could Phil give us some info on them?

I second this

It's not R+7, it was EVEN in 2008, R+4 in 2012, that doesn't anywhere close to equal R+7.

PVI wise its R+3/4, although margin of victory wise its R+7.

Maybe under Dean Chambers math, but it went for Romney 51-48, which is a 3% margin of victory, not 7%.

Yes, Romney won by 3%, but Obama won overall by 4%, therefore its 7 points more republican than the nation. That's what I'm talking about.

That's your own math, it's not PVI. PVI is Charlie Cook's method and that's not how he does it.

I never claimed that was PVI, that wasn't supposed to be PVI. When I said that it was margin of victory wise, that's what I meant.