Jim Gerlach retiring

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D+1

Would've been true in his old district, but this new one is safely R. The talk is that the most likely successor is former St. Rep. Curt Schroeder (who tried to run for this seat when Gerlach briefly retired in 2010).

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BTW: Is this Phil's CD ?

I think he's in Allyson Schwartz's PA-13 (which is also open) -- he was definitely there in the 2000s but redistricting might've moved him out.

[Vosem]

D+1

Would've been true in his old district, but this new one is safely R.

Are you on narcotics? Open R+2 seat, with the worst governor in the country heading the ticket, and it's safe?

Voted for Romney by 3 points while the country voted Obama by 4; it's R+7, and that's combined with a history of voting more Republican downballot (Gerlach survived 2006 and 2008 without much experience or seniority under his belt in a more Democratic version of this district). Safe, on second thought, is an exaggeration, but it's still no worse than Likely R.

Anyways, I'm wondering about the three candidates floated on PoliticsPA. Could Phil give us some info on them?

I second this

[Vosem]

D+1

Would've been true in his old district, but this new one is safely R.

Are you on narcotics? Open R+2 seat, with the worst governor in the country heading the ticket, and it's safe?

Voted for Romney by 3 points while the country voted Obama by 4; it's R+7, and that's combined with a history of voting more Republican downballot (Gerlach survived 2006 and 2008 without much experience or seniority under his belt in a more Democratic version of this district). Safe, on second thought, is an exaggeration, but it's still no worse than Likely R.

Anyways, I'm wondering about the three candidates floated on PoliticsPA. Could Phil give us some info on them?

I second this

Cook says it's R+2, not R+7.

It was dead even in 2008 (under the new boundaries; voted 53-46 Obama just like the country), but then R+7 in 2012 (51-48 Romney as the country was 51-47 Obama). Under the old boundaries, it was significantly more Obama but proceeded to elect Gerlach anyway. The district is clearly more Republican than Democratic, and getting to be more so as time goes on. I don't know where Cook is getting R+2 from, but I think it's a bit of an understatement.

I can tell you from personal experience that it's swingy, and that if it wasn't for Gerlach being a fighter and a weak Republican bench

Presumably you mean weak Democratic bench?

, this seat would be Democratic.

It's sort of a truism to say that 'if a seat had weaker Republicans and stronger Democrats, it would be more Democratic.' It doesn't, though.

At most this seat Leans R.

I have to respectfully disagree.

Someone like Sam Rohrer could very well blow this seat for Republicans. All I know is that he's staunchly conservative to the point where he attracted the ire of ThinkProgress.

Eh, House elections tend to be more nationalized nowadays. Republicans have blown Senate seats safer than this one repeatedly with bad candidates, but the only seats Democrats hold in the House more Republican than this one are entrenched incumbents, with the sole exception of Ann Kirkpatrick in Arizona. I'll grant you that yes, if Republicans nominate someone too conservative for this district, it could become a Tossup, but without the field being set, I don't think Democrats can bank on that happening, as it's not so common in House races. Contingencies like that are what the 'Likely' rating is for.

[Vosem]

D+1

Would've been true in his old district, but this new one is safely R.

Are you on narcotics? Open R+2 seat, with the worst governor in the country heading the ticket, and it's safe?

Voted for Romney by 3 points while the country voted Obama by 4; it's R+7, and that's combined with a history of voting more Republican downballot (Gerlach survived 2006 and 2008 without much experience or seniority under his belt in a more Democratic version of this district). Safe, on second thought, is an exaggeration, but it's still no worse than Likely R.

Obviously you haven't the faintest idea how to calculate a district's PVI.
Then again, if only this was the first thing where you shoot your mouth without having the faintest idea what you're talking about.

We're talking about how far the district was from the country as a whole at the 2012 election. PVI measures only 2-party share and goes back to the last two elections; my measure is a bit cruder. I know how to calculate PVI.

D+1

Would've been true in his old district, but this new one is safely R.

Are you on narcotics? Open R+2 seat, with the worst governor in the country heading the ticket, and it's safe?

Voted for Romney by 3 points while the country voted Obama by 4; it's R+7, and that's combined with a history of voting more Republican downballot (Gerlach survived 2006 and 2008 without much experience or seniority under his belt in a more Democratic version of this district). Safe, on second thought, is an exaggeration, but it's still no worse than Likely R.

Anyways, I'm wondering about the three candidates floated on PoliticsPA. Could Phil give us some info on them?

I second this

It's not R+7, it was EVEN in 2008, R+4 in 2012, that doesn't anywhere close to equal R+7.

PVI wise its R+3/4, although margin of victory wise its R+7.

Maybe under Dean Chambers math, but it went for Romney 51-48, which is a 3% margin of victory, not 7%.

I'm talking about how far it was from the country's result in 2012, not what the margin was or what the PVI is or any other measurement! This is not that hard, guys.

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You were also lucky with the rounding, it's actually about 6.3 more R than the nation in 2012 and about 0.2 more R than the nation in 2008.

Meh, my basic point still stands.

Ok guys. I just talked to Phil and his message is to be patient. He is currently unavailable but as soon as he can he will post an expert analysis on Gerlach's retirement and his would-be successors.

Looking forward to it.

I wonder if he's planning on challenging Corbett in the primary...mwa ha ha ha ha ha ha...

Hope so, but I think if that were the case he'd've announced it by now.